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American League Wild Card Series predictions: our experts make their picks
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American League Wild Card Series predictions: our experts make their picks

The Athletic has live coverage of the MLB Wild Card Series.

The National League went into overtime to determine the postseason series, but the American League had Monday off to prepare for Tuesday’s series of wild-card games. The Detroit Tigers shocked baseball by reaching the playoffs, but will they advance against the Houston Astros? Can the Baltimore Orioles bounce back from last October’s disappointing showing and take down the upstart Kansas City Royals? Our experts discuss the two AL Wild Card Series below.

Note: Playoff placement in brackets.


Detroit Tigers (6) vs. Houston Astros (3)

Personnel predictions for DET v. HOU

Team Percentage of votes

29.4%

70.6%

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Astros vs. Tigers Wild Card Series preview: predictions, pitching matchups and more

Chandler Rome (Houston): The gap in postseason experience and offensive production is too large to ignore. Tarik Skubal could make it meaningless on Tuesday afternoon. This also applies to AJ Hinch’s “pitching chaos” in the games that follow. However, with support for lean runs, the task becomes more difficult. A slew of rookies surviving tight matches with such a minuscule margin of error doesn’t seem like a recipe for dethroning the thing that brings this sport closest to a dynasty.

Keith Law (Detroit): The Tigers have the best pitcher in the American League on full rest, and their offense is sneakily good. Jackson Jobe could pull off their equivalent of David Price from 2008.

Kaitlyn McGrath (Houston): The Tigers’ late-season rise to the postseason was a great story, but the Astros are such a proven playoff team that it’s hard to bet against them. Potential without Yordan Alvarez will hurt Houston, but in a short series the pitching staff should be able to handle the Tigers. Plus, Minute Maid Park is always an intimidating park as a road team, but especially in October.

Stephen Nesbitt (Detroit): Since the introduction of the three-game Wild Card Series, the team that won the first game has won every series – a perfect 8 for 8. (Only one series even went to a third game.) If this comes down to a battle between Game 1 lefties, I’m going with Skubal and the Tigers. This is not entirely sensible. 1. The Tigers were 100 OPS points worse against left-handed pitching than the Astros this season. 2. The Astros defeated Skubal for six runs in 12 2/3 innings this season; the Tigers scored only twice in six innings against Framber Valdez. But what about this Tigers season? Furthermore, we risk exposing Old Takes if everyone makes the chalk choice. So they are tigers.

The Astros had one big inning against Skubal in June and he otherwise kept them in check. Now he has a chance to set the tone in Game 1, putting the Astros into elimination territory and putting an improbable end to their run of seven straight ALCS appearances.

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Andrew Baggarly (Houston): I’m not sure how they do it, but the Astros always find a way to make themselves heard in October. They are able to cut through the statistical noise and gain the upper hand in a short series. Not to spoil the great season the Tigers just had – former Houston manager AJ Hinch did a great job in Detroit – but they might have suffered a bad loss with this first round game. The Astros weren’t wire-to-wire winners in the AL West, but guys like José Altuve simply refuse to take off their jerseys in October. This is practically in the can.

Sahadev Sharma (Detroit): Tarik Skubal, and baseball is weird.

Jayson Stark (Houston): The Tigers are a great story. But the Astros are a great team. For me there is too much talent on one side of the field. It’s hard to see how the Tigers will keep the lineup from scoring unless Yordan Alvarez gets injured.

Sam Blum (Houston): Do you really think I’m crazy enough to take on the Astros before the ALCS?

Eno Sarris (Houston): The Astros – even if Yordan Alvarez doesn’t hit – have superior depth in the rotation, bullpen and lineup. And they have a few stars too.

Zack Meisel (Detroit): AJ Hinch’s revenge? Justin Verlander’s revenge? What about Jake Rogers’ revenge? The catcher, the only part of the Tigers’ return for Verlander still wearing the Old English D, will lead Detroit’s red-hot pitching staff to the ALDS.

Katie Woo (Houston): The Tigers are the best baseball story. But betting against the Astros? In October? Come on.

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David O’Brien (Houston): The Tigers are on a roll, but the Astros’ depth and wealth of postseason experience will win out.

Jen McCaffrey (Detroit): If there’s one team that can stop the Astros in the postseason, it’s this Tigers team that has been on a wild ride to get this far.

Patrick Mooney (Houston): Playoff experience is important.

Andy McCullough (Houston): The Astros are the more complete team, with pitchers who can undermine Detroit’s lineup and an offense that can take advantage of a tired Tigers bullpen. Skubal could tilt Game 1 towards the Tigers, but the Astros are strong enough to overcome that deficit.

C. Trent Rosecrans (Houston): The Tigers would make for a better story, but the Astros have been here before and that postseason experience is important.

Melissa Lockard (Houston): Detroit looks like a team of destiny, but Houston’s destiny has been the ALCS for years.


The Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes for a postseason run. Can he deliver? (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Kansas City Royals (5) vs. Baltimore Orioles (4)

Personnel predictions for KC v. BAL

Team Percentage of votes

23.50%

76.50%

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Orioles vs. Royals Wild Card Series preview: predictions, pitching matchups and more

Sahadev Sharma (Kansas City): I can’t believe I’m saying this about the Royals, but their starting pitching will help them through this round.

Jayson Stark (Baltimore): I feel like people are overlooking the Orioles. That’s a mistake. That attitude is healthier than it has been in a long time. And any team that starts Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin in a short series has more than enough starting pitching to win a short series.

Sam Blum (Baltimore): In a battle between two teams that had mediocre September numbers, I’m going to go with the club that’s at home, has some postseason experience and will pitch Corbin Burnes in Game 1.

Kaitlyn McGrath (Baltimore): The Orioles were humiliated last season and I think the team a year older will take these valuable lessons into October. The Royals were a great story this year, but their offense ultimately faded. That said, if Vinnie Pasquantino can come back, I’d give the Royals a fighting chance. The Orioles also had their issues, but they finished the season strong and hosting the short series at Camden Yards will be a significant advantage for them.

Andy McCullough (Kansas City): The Orioles played .500 baseball in the second half. The Royals have had two seven-game losing streaks in the last six weeks. Toss a coin! Kansas City is playing with house money; few prognosticators expected them to reach the postseason.

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Zack Meisel (Baltimore): The Royals’ strength is their rotation, but Burnes and Eflin have been outstanding for the Orioles of late. Baltimore’s lineup will seize the opportunity to set up an AL East showdown with the Yankees in the ALDS.

Stephen Nesbitt (Baltimore): I would confidently pick the combination of Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo over Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, but it’s not the Royals rotation that puts me off. It’s the bats. Bobby Witt Jr. hasn’t gotten any help lately. The Royals’ .577 OPS in September was last in the majors.

Here’s a look at everyone who had an at-bat last month, sorted by OPS with round numbers:

Come back soon, Vinnie Pasquantino! Neither team is heading into the postseason at full strength. The Orioles are 38-40 since early July; the Royals are 39-37. I trust the deeper lineup will find a way to win this series.

Andrew Baggarly (Kansas City): The Orioles offense lost steam in the second half and their bullpen never had much of it early on. It is a difficult task to win a three-game series on the road. But the Royals may be young and talented enough not to know any better.

Chandler Rome (Baltimore): Neither of these teams played inspired ball in September, so it seems wise to pick the one with a bit of momentum. Baltimore has won five of its last seven games and has the one-two punch atop the rotation to counter Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo. Assuming Burnes and Eflin can keep Witt in check, the Orioles will have to atone for their short-lived stay last October.

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David O’Brien (Baltimore): The Orioles have sputtered a bit since their stellar start, but their offense is still much better than the Royals, who have been the Majors’ lowest-scoring team over the past 30 days.

Jen McCaffrey (Baltimore): The Royals were struggling and that could be a good recipe for the Orioles to advance deeper in the postseason this time around.

Patrick Mooney (Baltimore): Will the White Sox get a playoff share after a 1-12 win against the Royals?

Eno Sarris (Baltimore): Teams with below-average lineups usually don’t get far in the playoffs, and the Royals had the 20th best bats of the season and the worst lineup over the past month. You have to score to win!

C. Trent Rosecrans (Baltimore): Both teams stumbled to the finish, but in the end the Orioles are the better team.

Melissa Lockard (Baltimore): The Royals staff could give the Orioles some problems, but playing at Camden with that lineup should ultimately give Baltimore the edge.

(Top photo of Framber Valdez: Logan Riely / Getty Images)