MIAMI – All eyes are on Milton as the dangerous coming hurricane will bring damaging winds, a life-threatening storm surge and torrential rains that are expected to hit the west coast of Florida this week. This would be the third hurricane strike of the season, following landfalls of Debby in August and Helene in September.

The National Hurricane Center designated developing cyclone Tropical Storm Milton on Saturday afternoon, but it is now expected to do so. intensify quickly into a hurricane on Monday and reaching Florida on Wednesday.

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The forecast for Milton has evolved quite a bit in recent days, showing greater potential for a larger storm.

“The bottom line is we have the potential for a significant, problematic, impactful storm to move toward Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday next week,” said hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross.

What’s the latest on Tropical Storm Milton?

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What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Milton?

Milton is expected to increase speed early this week and turn east-northeast over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane force on Monday with rapid strengthening likely early in the week, the NHC said.

The current schedule calls for Milton to arrive in the Florida Peninsula around Wednesday, although winds could increase late Tuesday. Well ahead of the storm, waves of heavy precipitation are forecast beginning Sunday, especially in Central and South Florida.

The National Hurricane Center now predicts that Hurricane Milton will make landfall around the Tampa metro area as a Category 3 hurricane.

“There’s actually no good news in these various computer forecasts, but here we are,” Norcross said.

The NHC shares these concerns.

“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to impact the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” the agency said.

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What are the storm surge potential in Florida?

Norcross says it’s too early to predict how much storm surge this system could generate on Florida’s west coast because it depends on Milton’s route and where it makes landfall in West Florida. But it will be significant and dangerous.

“In some areas it will likely be higher than Hurricane Helene,” Norcross said. “It is critical that everyone in Central and South Florida stay informed as things are developing rapidly.”

Ahead of the storm, Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for dozens of counties, from South Florida to northern parts of the state.

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall is expected to occur from the Interstate 4 corridor and southward, where a widespread area could see 6 to 8 inches of rain over the next week, with some areas seeing close to a foot of rain.

Because much of the rain will spread over several days, widespread flooding is not expected, but problems could arise if thunderstorms move repeatedly over the same region.

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Will Milton reach North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia or South Carolina?

The expected affected region is further south of where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend won’t receive as much rainfall as locations like Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

In addition to the rainfall, the rough seas will also lead to the threat of increased currents and erosion along beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

On its current path, Hurricane Milton will not move through the Southeast like Hurricane Helene, but rain from Milton’s outer bands could reach South Carolina and Georgia and is expected to remain well south of North Carolina and Tennessee.

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What can be expected with the remainder of the hurricane season?

Waters in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf remain warm enough for development, and October is typically the month with the most landfalls in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, September 10.

The last date a hurricane ever hit the Sunshine State was November 21, when Hurricane Kate slammed into the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, which are expected to have greater impacts on Europe than the US.

There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being monitored, but only slow development is expected.