Hurricane Milton has triggered hurricane and storm surge warnings along Florida’s western Gulf Coast, where there is a danger of life-threatening storm surges, destructive winds and flooding rainfall by midweek.

If you are in an area prone to storm surges, follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if instructed to do so. This is a serious situation, with the National Hurricane Center forecasting a storm surge of as much as 8 to 12 feet above ground level along Florida’s western Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay, as the peak high tide arrives.

(CARD TRACKER: Spaghetti models and more)

Hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect here: A hurricane watch is in effect along much of Florida’s western Gulf Coast, from Chokoloskee north to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. This means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 75 miles per hour or greater) are possible within the monitored area, typically within 48 hours.

Tropical storm watches extend north and south of the hurricane watch into Florida’s Big Bend and along Florida’s southwestern coast.

A storm surge watch extends from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This means that a life-threatening water rise due to a storm surge is possible in the area, usually within 48 hours.

Here’s the latest status on Milton: The hurricane is barreling across the western Gulf of Mexico, 750 miles southwest of Tampa. It is a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 miles per hour and moving from east to southeast at a speed of 8 miles per hour.

Milton has intensified rapidly, meaning an increase in winds of at least 55 km per hour in 24 hours or less since Sunday.

Here is the latest timing and intensity forecast: Milton is expected to become a major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger later Monday. Maximum intensity of Category 4 could be reached over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Milton is forecast to experience some weakening as it approaches Florida due to increasing wind shear and dry air.

However, it is important to note that this potential weakening will not reduce the impacts we see from Milton, including severe storm surge. Milton could also become larger as it approaches Florida, spreading the effects of wind, storm surge and rain over a larger area.

Impacts forecast

Storm surge

According to the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast, storm surge will be as high as 8 to 12 feet above ground level when the peak surge coincides with high tides along Florida’s west-central Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge could be as high as 5 to 10 feet south as far as Fort Myers Beach and areas north of Tampa Bay.

Expect adjustments to the storm surge forecast below based on Milton’s track.

The storm surge will be most destructive near and south of where the center of the storm crosses the coast. As previously mentioned, if you are in an area prone to storm surges, you should follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if necessary.

Rainfall Floods

Florida has been drenched in rainfall since the weekend due to a front that has draped over the state. Flood warnings are in place across much of the Florida peninsula due to rain preceding Milton’s arrival and rainfall from the hurricane itself midweek.

Totals on the Florida Peninsula could reach 5 to 10 inches, with 15 inches locally through Thursday. This could lead to significant flash flooding and river flooding.

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Wind damage

This system has the potential to bring damaging winds to Florida’s western Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday. The strongest winds that could cause structural damage, down trees and knock out power will occur near where downtown Milton crosses the coast, which is still somewhat uncertain.

Areas further away from the landfall point on the Florida Peninsula will also see some strong wind gusts that could at least topple trees and cause scattered power outages.

Any hurricane preparations or recovery and rebuilding efforts should be completed by Tuesday evening. After that time, these efforts can be dangerous.

Below is a look at the peak wind threat based on Milton’s current trajectory. Please note that this prediction may change in future updates.

Tornadoes

An isolated tornado threat may develop across much of West Central and South Florida Tuesday evening. The threat of isolated tornadoes will then continue across Florida’s central and southern peninsula through Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Check back with Weather.com in the coming days for updates as details become clearer.