We’re headed into Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises that could happen and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking out one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 5 winners

Can the Chiefs still rely on Travis Kelce to produce, especially with Rashee Rice out?

At age 34, Kelce had managed only 69 receiving yards through three games this season. But he finally broke out in Week 4 with 89 yards on seven receptions. With Rice now injured, the Chiefs will need more from Kelce (who turns 35 Saturday) than a sporadic big game here or there. Can they get it against the Saints in Week 5 and going forward? The advanced metrics suggest the answer is yes.

Most critically, Kelce has maintained his ability to get open. He has a 72 open score via ESPN’s receiver scores, which is exactly the same as what he posted last season. That’s a slight downtick from the 78 he recorded in 2021 and 2022, but it shows Kelce has maintained his separation ability even if it hasn’t resulted in a ton of yardage. After all, open score is based on all routes — regardless of whether a player is targeted or not — and there are times when Kelce has gotten open but hasn’t gotten the ball … such as the two examples below.

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— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 3, 2024

Can Nick Herbig fill in for Alex Highsmith against Dallas?

As long as Herbig can play after an ankle injury in Week 4, Pittsburgh should still generate a strong pass rush against the Cowboys without Highsmith. Herbig has improved his jump this season, reducing his pass rush get-off from 0.83 seconds as a rookie last year to 0.76 seconds this season. He has a 30% pass rush win rate and two sacks in limited playing time.

Herbig should face Cowboys rookie Tyler Guyton, who has been solid with an 87% pass block win rate (roughly average). On the other side of the line, T.J. Watt should feast against a struggling Terence Steele (82% PBWR, 56th).

Can the Patriots’ offensive line hold up … at all?

Four games into the season, and the Patriots’ offensive line situation is dire. The team has the worst pass block win rate in the NFL at just 39% — almost 10 full percentage points below the 30th-ranked Panthers (49%). Tackles Mike Onwenu and Vederian Lowe rank 63rd and 64th — second-to-last and last — respectively, at the position. Caedan Wallace and Demontrey Jacobs, who have each started a game apiece, would rank 61st and 65th, respectively, if they qualified.

Wallace is now on the injured reserve with an ankle injury and center David Andrews is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Various ailments have also kept Lowe, center Nick Leverett and guards Michael Jordan and Layden Robinson out or limited in practice this week, too. This is all to say that the Dolphins should be able to get home even without Jaelan Phillips on Sunday.

Can Dontayvion Wicks thrive in an increased role against the Rams?

Wicks stepped in for more snaps after Christian Watson suffered an ankle injury in Week 4 and delivered five receptions for 78 receiving yards. With Watson still out, Wicks should get more work, but which version should we expect to see against the Rams? The Wicks who managed just 26 receiving yards in the first three games, or the one who broke out in Week 4 against the Vikings? I’m betting on the latter.

Wicks has a strong 68 open score to start the season, a step up from 55 in 2023. He has been held back by a miserable 26 catch score, but this metric is less stable than open score in our receiver scores and is significantly worse than the 64 catch score he produced last season. I’d bank on that number positively regressing and Wicks continuing his strong production in Week 5.

Can the Jets use disguised safety alignments to stop Sam Darnold?

File this away in the “small sample but let’s keep an eye on it” department. Darnold — despite all his 2024 success — has the worst QBR in the league when opponents show single-high safety alignment pre-snap and then rotate to two-high (9.2).

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Yates isn’t sure about Sam Darnold vs. the Jets’ defense

Field Yates doubts Sam Darnold’s fantasy potential in Week 5 facing the Jets.

Darnold’s career QBR when safeties rotate this way is only slightly worse than his overall average, so I’m inclined to think this is just noise. And this isn’t something the Jets have done a ton under Robert Saleh. They’ve done it just 17% of the time this season (below league average) and 16% overall for Saleh’s tenure. But given all the success Darnold and the Vikings are having this year, it’s worth a shot for the Jets — right?

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers (48.2% rostered)

Kraft benefited from Jordan Love’s 54 pass attempts last week as the Packers played catch-up for most of the game. He saw nine targets and finished with 17.3 fantasy points. Only Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs have run more routes than Kraft on the Packers this season. And facing a Rams defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends, Kraft is in a favorable spot. If you’re struggling to find production at the position, don’t overlook him as a potential option.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers (35.5% rostered)

With the Packers’ depth at wide receiver, there’s no rush to bring Christian Watson back from his ankle injury. Wicks stepped up with 13 targets and 27.1 fantasy points as the starter opposite Romeo Doubs last week. For those concerned about Jayden Reed, it’s worth noting that he primarily plays in three-WR sets. Wicks should see plenty of snaps against a Rams defense that allows the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (32.8% rostered)

Lawrence finished last season strong as the QB6 in fantasy points per game from Week 11 on, and many were optimistic about his outlook this season. However, he’s off to a slow start, averaging just 12.2 fantasy points. This week, Lawrence faces a Colts defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. With Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. as his top pass catchers, Lawrence has a good chance to deliver his best performance of the year.

Antonio Gibson, RB, New England Patriots (31.1% rostered)

Gibson has sleeper appeal after Patriots coach Jerod Mayo mentioned that starting him over Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 5 is “definitely under consideration.” Stevenson has fumbled in every game this season. Even if Gibson doesn’t start, he should still be involved in the Patriots’ run-heavy offense. He has scored 11 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games. Plus, the Dolphins’ defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, making Gibson a solid play this week.

Trey Sermon, RB, Indianapolis Colts (11.3% rostered)

Sermon is the favorite to handle most of the Colts’ backfield work with Jonathan Taylor sidelined by an ankle injury. The Jaguars’ defense has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, and Sermon will be running behind an offensive line that ranks second in run block win rate. This week is a great chance for Sermon to step up and deliver, not just for the Colts but also for fantasy managers.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson runs for a touchdown vs. Cincinnati

The Ravens’ QB run game is the best in the league as offensive coordinator Todd Monken is getting extra numbers to the play side, which clears a runway for Jackson. Jackson has run for a touchdown in each of his past two games, and he has totaled 15 rushes on designed carries during that time. I bet he finds the end zone again Sunday against the Bengals.

Bears defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. sacks Andy Dalton

Dexter has notched three sacks and eight pressures over the first month of the season as an emerging talent on the Bears’ interior defensive front. Plus, Carolina is 30th in pass block win rate this season (48.9%). Look for Chicago to scheme its fronts Sunday at Soldier Field, which will create an isolated matchup for Dexter to get home to the quarterback.

Steelers receiver George Pickens grabs his first touchdown of the season

Pickens had a season-high 113 receiving yards in the Week 4 loss to the Colts, and he has seen at least seven targets in three of four games played. However, Pickens has just three end zone targets on the season. On Sunday night against the Cowboys, look for Pickens to score on a fade throw from quarterback Justin Fields.

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Why George Pickens is a matchup dependent WR

Field Yates explains why George Pickens’ production will vary based on the Steelers game script.

Packers receiver Jayden Reed logs over 100 receiving yards

Reed has posted over 100 receiving yards in both games this season that Jordan Love has been at quarterback. And I’m all-in on the pass-game matchup here against a Rams defense that is allowing a league-worst 8.6 yards per attempt. I expect Reed to top the 100-yard mark again Sunday, racking up multiple explosive plays.

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith throws for two touchdowns

Over the past three games, Smith has thrown for 1,011 yards (the most in the league during that stretch) and completed 72.4% of his passes. However, he has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game this season. But I see him throwing two against a Giants defense that’s allowing 193 passing yards per game (14th in NFL) and has given up six passing TDs.

Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 5

New Orleans Saints (+5) at Kansas City Chiefs

I’m very worried about how the Chiefs move the football with Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco absent for the foreseeable future. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is still the quarterback. And yes, Xavier Worthy had that huge touchdown in Week 4. But the Saints’ secondary is as physical and stifling as any in the league, and there isn’t a reliable sticks-mover left on the Chiefs, save for Travis Kelce. Can Kelce sustain 10 targets per game at his age? 12?

With only a couple of big plays, the Saints can put up enough points to strain Kansas City’s depleted offense. I think another undefeated team falls Monday night.

Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

A source considers Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (oblique) a game-time decision against the Jaguars. Indianapolis will see how he feels over the weekend. Richardson wants to play, but the team and player need to ensure he can be his full self when he’s out there. It should be noted that backup Joe Flacco got significant work in practices this week. The good news is the injury is not considered serious and Richardson likely wouldn’t worsen his condition by playing. It’s more about pain tolerance and functionality.

The Falcons’ offense is brimming with confidence, primed for an NFC South run. Kirk Cousins, who is now all the way back from his Achilles injury to the tune of 509 passing yards Thursday, admitted after the win against the Buccaneers that he was tentative over the first few weeks of the season. On Thursday night, he was deadly decisive and “let it rip” with a sense of urgency. Anticipation on his throws has improved. The result is an offense that seems capable of just about anything. “(Cousins) showed he’s one of those dudes,” tight end Kyle Pitts told me.

The Falcons found a way to get Pitts involved, and receiver Darnell Mooney is emerging as a legitimate option now that he’s out of Chicago. “We are going to spread it around and find the open man,” Mooney said. “That’s our offense.”

I’ve spoken to multiple league execs who predict the Jets will end up the front-runner for a Davante Adams trade. Given the Jets are in London, any deal this weekend seems highly unlikely. And look, this is not an easy deal to execute for any team because of Adams’ $16.8 million guaranteed salary. That’s nearly $1 million per week. Teams don’t budget for that kind of contract on their books in Week 5.

So the question that looms large: Will the Raiders cover part of Adams’ salary to facilitate a trade? I haven’t found the answer to that yet. But the Saints are monitoring the situation, I’m told. A few teams I’ve spoken to see the Commanders as a sleeper, but the people I’ve talked to in Washington would be mildly surprised if that plays out, given what it has going with a young core.

With Rashee Rice’s 2024 campaign uncertain after his knee injury, the Chiefs will need to adjust offensively. I’m told the offense will rely on veteran Justin Watson to enhance his role. He has started a handful of games over the past three years and Mahomes trusts him. The last thing I heard on Rice is that the testing from this week was inconclusive — not definitively an ACL tear — and even though the injury very well could require surgery now or after the season, the team and player are still mapping out the best course of action and letting the swelling subside.