Houston vs. TCU prediction

My best choice
Total team Houston under 16.5 points (+110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The concern for Willie Fritz when he took over this roster was how many offensive turnovers there were. Houston had to replace four starting offensive linemen from last season, as well as its top two receivers. This last concern worried Fritz less, but to some extent only made the coming problems worse.

Fritz is stubborn in some ways. Even if he has a strong team, he is so committed to the running game that it could be concerning. Tulane had a strong passing game last year, ranking No. 34 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Meanwhile, the Green Wave had a failing rushing game, ranking No. 105 in the nation in EPA per rush and No. 89 in rushing success rate. Yet Tulane ran the ball 2.9% more often than the average team in a given game situation.

Fritz should have focused on the pass, but that’s not his way of coaching.

That stubbornness was always going to be an issue with this Cougars’ roster, one without any significant rushing assets. Unsurprisingly, Houston ranks No. 114 in EPA per rush and No. 126 in rushing success rate. Frustratingly, the Cougars rank No. 107 in how often they rush; they do this 6.7% more often than expected. per cfb charts at collegefootballinsiders.com.

That’s the disease. Houston’s worst offensive symptoms are its inability to create quality drives, doing so on only 17.5% of possessions, worst in the country, and scoring a laughable 1.77 points per quality drive, No. 132 in the country .

These symptoms and that disease are why the Cougars haven’t scored in their last two games and have only totaled 19 points against the top four defenses they’ve faced, excluding Rice and their No. 108 defense in the league . current SP+ ratings.

Houston vs. TCU same-game parlay (SGP)

Houston total team under 16.5

Under 51.5

TCU-15.5

As bad as Houston’s offense is, it makes TCU look like a juggernaut. The truth is, the Horned Frogs are only good offensively, not great. And it could take a long time to push this game past 51 points if all you can count on is the Cougars.

That last thought is not hyperbolic. TCU’s defense is a few notches better than UNLV and Cincinnati, two teams that combined to hold Houston to seven total points, the best comparisons for what could happen Friday night.

Fritz is a coach who puts defense first, and he will devise a plan to avoid absolute defeat. That’s part of the reason he insists on running the ball, to shorten the play. So the Houston Frogs won’t be able to open a 40 on their own, although even just 20 points could cover this spread for TCU.

Learn how to parlay on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Houston vs. TCU Odds

Houston vs TCU live odds

Opening odds Houston vs. TCU

• Spread between Houston and TCU: TCU-17
• Houston vs. TCU moneyline: Houston +550, TCU -800
• Houston vs. TCU top/bottom: 49.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Houston vs. TCU spread and over/under analysis

• TCU opened Sunday as a 17-point favorite, and this line has quickly moved toward Houston, as foolish as that might otherwise seem. Some sportsbooks have considered going further, only to return to -16.5.
• The total opened at 52.5 at the earliest Sunday market and quickly fell to 49.5. On Tuesday the price rose again to 50.5 and then to 51.5.
• The total rising while the spread held steady should be seen as confidence in TCU, as all five of Houston’s games this season have gone under their total and by an average of 16.9 points.

Betting trend Houston vs TCU to know

The Cougars have fallen below their team total in three of five games this season, with the two exceptions being a loss to Oklahoma and a loss to a woeful Rice. Find more college football betting odds for Houston vs TCU.

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