It’s that time of year again, folks. The UFC is back in Salt Lake City for UFC 307 and another Alex Pereira light heavyweight title defense is scheduled.

Saturday’s high-altitude MMA showcase looked like an odd pay-per-view on the UFC schedule a few months ago. Big fights and logical seedings seemed to exclude UFC 307 from the availability of other champions and the timing didn’t match the more flexible main event stars. That was of course on the assumption that Brazilian Pereira would not be able to win again in a short time.

Wrong. That’s all “Potatan” did in 2024.

Pereira’s first two defenses, knockouts of Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka, came in shorter bouts than normal for a champion. However, Pereira has proven that he is not a regular title holder, and he will look to continue to demonstrate that with a knockout of Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307.

Salt Lake City’s loyal fans will also be treated to another title fight as the headline defense is the first for women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington. Rocky’s “Rocky” story culminated with gold in January, ten years after her performance The ultimate fighter 18. That win made her one of three fighters in history to achieve champion status after spending a decade in the Octagon.

Pennington’s opponent is former champion Julianna Peña, who also ended up in the UFC through her The Ultimate Fighter 18, which she actually won. After a 798-day layoff, ‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ is back.

Those are just the two best fights to close out the night. Let’s take a deeper look at the title tilts along with the rest of the main card and make a few picks, shall we?

Bets courtesy of BetMGM.

Alex Pereira (11-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5, 1 NC)

For his third light heavyweight title defense, 37-year-old champion Pereira is rightly voted -450 favorite, the second biggest on the card.

Let’s just say it now: Both title fights at UFC 307 feature challengers who shouldn’t be next in line. If meritocracy has to die to have fun, then so be it, says the UFC. Enter #7-ranked competitor and “GLORY Kickboxing Killer” Rountree.

Rountree, 34, is undeniably in the best part of his 10-year pro career, riding a five-fight win streak. Of those five, Rountree has knocked out four of his opponents with hits, including one-time title challenger Anthony Smith in his most recent win last December.

I mentioned the fun little “GLORY Killer” nickname for Rountree, which came from the time he defeated former kickboxing standouts Dustin Jacoby and Gokhan Saki, the latter of which was a stunning upset in 2018. As a +340 underdog, Rountree hopes to repeat that same epic performance against another former GLORY champion with his vicious kicks and elbows.

That won’t be anything new for Pereira. The champion has seen it all in the striking department, with his biggest hurdles coming against his old rival, former middleweight king Israel Adesanya. Aside from his loss to Adesanya, Pereira has had minimal trouble with kickboxing-themed MMA cases. It would be wise for Rountree to try to exploit the weaker part of Pereira’s game – the champion’s wrestling – but he has already stated in interviews that he will not go that route. Whether or not that’s just mind games, Pereira has continually improved his takedown defense and overall ground awareness to the point where Rountree won’t really be a threat there.

But Pereira can be hit, and with strength like Rountree’s that can spell trouble. It’s just a matter of finding his shot first, and that’s the problem. Pereira’s timing and counters are virtually unparalleled in the heavier weight classes, and oh, he has one of the greatest equalizers in MMA history with that nuclear left hook, if not the best. The man can hurt people’s feet anywhere and he’ll complement his prime here, especially if Rountree doesn’t even get involved in the wrestling threat.

It could be something crazy like Thiago Santos vs. Jimi Manuwa for as long as it lasts, but eventually we’ll hear Bruce Buffer announce, “And yet.”

Choice: Pereira

Raquel Pennington (16-8) vs. Julianna Peña (11-5)

The purist in me struggles so much watching these title fights.

Don’t be misled. Peña’s return, two days after an 800-day absence, comes after one of the most lopsided title losses in MMA history with her rematch to Amanda Nunes. Injuries extended her absence and ended what was supposed to be a Nunes trilogy in June 2023. That was the best for her and for us.

Nevertheless, Peña is back in the title scene to try to dethrone Pennington and join the ranks of select female fighters to become a two-time UFC champion.

What Pennington lacks in finishing ability, she technically makes up for with her tight boxing and underrated clinching. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective and gets the job done, while Peña is wild, chaotic and the exact opposite in the standup department. Nunes took advantage of this last fact with three knockdowns in the Peña rematch.

Peña’s X-factor against everyone is her tenacity, aggression and relentless pursuit of takedowns. But another area where Pennington is underrated is her struggling defense. She may be giving up takedowns – she has agreed to nine of her opponents on this current six-fight win streak – but she knows how to avoid being held down or put in compromising positions. In all but two fights, Pennington defeated her opponents in control time, and in one of the two where she did not, the end result was a victory over Macy Chiasson by guillotine.

As durable and raw as they are, Pennington has only finished twice in her career. Peña will be hoping to eliminate the champion and reclaim her title if there is no finish. That will make the fight a bit of a stretch for whoever is more effective with their damage, and Pennington should rule that out for her first title defense.

Choice: Pennington

Jose Aldo (32-8) vs. Mario Bautista (14-2)

Jose Aldo makes no sense and I absolutely love it.

The legendary former featherweight champion returned to MMA in May in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Against Jonathan Martinez at UFC 301, 38-year-old Aldo performed as brilliantly as fans all remembered him being able to do.

Aldo stayed in the bantamweight division and was sharp, fast and brutal in his victory over Martinez. Aldo’s bizarre inability to age should probably be studied by science, and Mario Bautista will have to find a way to overcome the Brazilian’s incredible counter-speed and unparalleled takedown defense.

If any rising prospect at 135 pounds can crack Aldo right now, it’s Bautista, who is the slight favorite at -140 to Aldo’s +115. Bautista, 31, has been on a tear, winning six straight with mixed submissions between decisions.

This matchup is another case of vastly superior experience and veteran knowledge making the difference. For the most part, expect it to look like Aldo vs. Martinez minus the near finish at the end. Another dissection of the “King of Rio” is coming.

Choice: Aldo

Ketlen Vieira (14-3) vs. Kayla Harrison (17-1)

Kayla Harrison should challenge Pennington for the title, and Pena should return against Ketlen Vieira. It all makes too much sense, but instead here we are.

The 34-year-old Harrison may have delivered more than expected in her highly anticipated promotional debut at UFC 300 in April. The two-time Olympic gold medalist judoka dominated former UFC bantamweight champion Holly Holm from pillar to post before securing a rear choke in the second round. Things couldn’t have gone much better for the former PFL champion.

Vieira, 33, offers Harrison the challenge of having probably the second-best judo skills behind herself in the division. Vieira is a black belt in that regard and doesn’t show off her wrestling skills as often as Harrison, but it’s usually effective when she does.

Harrison’s offense has continually improved fight after fight, and we saw that against Holm. Vieira has some smart setups and has been more patient in letting combinations develop since her knockout loss to Irene Aldana in 2019 – a fight she won until the final blow. Vieira’s path to success will be to use her judo defensively and nullify Harrison’s game so they can exchange strikes.

However, that is easier said than done, especially against a judoka of Harrison’s caliber. As talented as Vieira is, there are levels to this game, which is why Harrison is the biggest betting favorite at UFC 307 at -1100 to Vieira’s +700.

Choice: Harrison

Roman Dolidze (13-3) vs. Kevin Holland (26-11, 1 NC)

This fight is weird. After Kevin Holland lost to his original opponent, Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze stepped in to save the day, just as he did against the aforementioned Smith at UFC 303 in June.

Stylistically, this should be a fairly comfortable victory for Dolidze, thanks to his superior wrestling skills, but his last three performances in particular left a lot to be desired.

Holland is a viable submission threat and dangerous from underneath with attacks, as evidenced by his 2020 win over Ronaldo Souza, but he will be outsized in this one if Dolidze drops back from his 205-pound side quest. The activity and striking of the Netherlands are certainly what makes him a favorite in the minds of the oddsmakers at -145 here. Dolidze is a good bet at +120, but he is difficult to trust. It is an exciting battle, but Dolidze is never finished and that is what the Netherlands needs.

Choice: Dolidze

Preliminary comments

The entire prelim portion of UFC 307 isn’t too shabby. The last two fights, Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley and Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo, are the most intriguing. We also have an impending retirement for a historic former two-time champion, as Carla Esparza returns for another walk after becoming a mother to take on her fellow champions. The Ultimate Fighter 20 alum Tecia Pennington. It’s nice that Pennington and her wife Raquel can participate in the competition on the same evening. Violence can even be expected in the veteran match between Court McGee and Tim Means. Cheers for that, everyone.

Quick picks:

• Stephen Thompson (+175) def. Joaquin Buckley (-210)

• Marina Rodriguez (+155) def. Iasmin Lucindo (-190)

• Cesar Almeida (-400) def. Ihor Potieria (+310)

• Ryan Spann (-250) def. Ovince Saint Preux (+200)

• Carla Esparza (+150) def. Tecia Torres (-185)

• Tim Means (-210) final. Court McGee (+165)

• Alexander Hernandez (-160) def. Austin Hubbard (+130)