As the 2024 NFL season begins, things haven’t gone as expected for the top running backs in fantasy football drafts. In fact, things have gotten quite messy.

Christian McCaffrey, who had an average draft position (ADP) of first overall and RB1 in half PPR (via FantasyPros), continues to battle Achilles tendonitis and has yet to make his season debut. Breece Hall (RB2 ADP) and Bijan Robinson (RB3 ADP) are also not safe. Hall’s efficiency was lacking at -0.08 rushing yards above expectation per carry (per NFL’s Next Gen Stats), giving Braelon Allen an increased workload. The same thing is happening with Robinson, as Tyler Allgeier becomes an increasing threat to Bijan’s workload.

What does this mean for the future of the Atlanta Falcons backfield? Is it time to sell Robinson, or can he still live up to his high ADP?

The use of Bijan Robinson

According to PlayerProfiler, Robinson continues to have a huge workload during the season. He has an 83.3% snap share (third highest of his position), 75.0% opportunity share (seventh highest), and 47.6 weighted opportunities (sixth highest). Robinson took at least 75.0% of the shots from Week 1 through Week 3. So where is the problem?

The concern over usage is mainly due to the results from Week 4. Bijan played for 36 snaps (64%); his previous low was 46 snaps (75%). He recorded just 11 touches in Week 4, while 18 touches was the previous low from Week 3. Of course, some of this was due to Kirk Cousins ​​scoring 35 pass attempts. Atlanta’s pass play percentage of 70.0% was a bit unusual (58.1% on the season).

While the Falcons’ carries have been low overall, this becomes much more concerning. Allgeier made his presence known in Week 4.

Tyler Allgeier’s growing role

Before Week 4, Allgeier posted snap counts of 10, 13, and 13. Last week, this increased to 21 snaps, good for a 38% snap rate. For comparison, Allgeier’s previous high was 21% in Week 2 and Week 3.

The touches were also pretty similar, with Allgeier totaling 10 to Bijan’s 11. Raising the biggest eyebrows was the usage in the second half of the 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints.

Allgeier posted 13 snaps to Robinson’s 14 in the second half, and he recorded seven rushing attempts, while Bijan recorded just one. If that isn’t eye-opening, I don’t know what is.

This could be a reflection of the 2023 season, which gave Robinson a 68.6% rush share. While this was still the ninth-highest mark at his position, his opportunity share ranked 31st and Bijan was 17th at his position in fantasy points per game with this workload. That’s far from good enough for an ADP of RB3.

You’re probably wondering why Allgeier dominated carries in the second half of Week 4. Let’s dive into the stats.

Falcons’ backfield fantasy football prospects

This one is simple: Allgeier has been the much more efficient back. He is averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to Robinson’s 4.1. With the Falcons having Pro Football Focus’ seventh-best run block grade, Bijan’s yards per carry are nothing to write home about.

It continues as Allgeier records 0.94 rushing yards above expectation per carry (RYOE/C). Among qualifying players, this would have been the sixth-best figure in football a season ago; Allgeier has been that good. Meanwhile, Robinson is at -0.33 RYOE/C. It was a completely different story in 2023, when Bijan held 0.38 RYOE/C, compared to Allgeier’s -0.38. It made perfect sense for Robinson to carry nearly 70% of the bag, but from what we’ve seen so far, Bijan’s workload shouldn’t continue to increase with poor efficiency.

Most of the concern is on rushing attempts, as Robinson should still dominate the receiving work. He has racked up 16 targets and 15 catches in four games, while Allgeier has registered just 3 targets and receptions. Even in Week 4, Bijan doubled Allgeier’s receiving work with four targets and catches to his counterpart’s two.

Robinson has a target share of 14.2%, while Allgeier has a paltry 2.7%. Furthermore, Bijan has still been efficient with 10.7 yards above expectations per game.

That builds some confidence for Robinson going forward, but what would fewer carries mean? It’s hard not to worry about Bijan’s work in the red zone if this continues. Neither player got red zone carries in Week 4, but the two backs are evenly split with a 50.0% share of red zone rushing attempts for the season.

Robinson has just one rushing touchdown this season. The alarm should be sounding as Allgeier took 42.9% of red zone carries in 2023, while Bijan took just 27.4% of rush attempts. Robinson’s fantasy was held back after just four rushing touchdowns a season ago; after the week 4 split, we could be headed for more of the same.

However, this is more about taking away from Robinson’s value. Don’t expect Allgeier to be a consistent fantasy producer, as he finished 42nd in fantasy points per game (7.6) at his position last season. Allgeier is also only averaging 5.3 fantasy points per game in half PPR through four games.

While Bijan still has intriguing PPR value thanks to his received work, it’s starting to look unlikely that Robinson will live up to his RB3 ADP. Allgeier’s efficiency as a rusher is a major threat, as we saw in Week 4.

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