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    • Florida radar, forecasts dangerous surf, heavy rain
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    Florida radar, forecasts dangerous surf, heavy rain

    Vaseline Posted on

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    (This story was updated to add new information.)

    Florida could soon feel like the unexpected guest at a crowded Thanksgiving table.

    Residents in the Sunshine State are facing dual tropical threats from two different directions this weekend and into next week: Hurricane Kirk and a system in the Gulf of Mexico.

    On Thursday, chances for development of the system now in the Gulf decreased but those chances not only increased early Friday, but the National Hurricane Center said a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week.

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    Regardless of development, Florida faces the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding. That’s not good news for areas still recovering from the rain, storm surge and winds brought by Category 4 Hurricane Helene on Sept. 26.

    While Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain over open water in the Central Atlantic, the strong Category 4 storm could mean life-threatening surf, dangerous rip currents and hazardous boating conditions for Florida and the U.S. East Coast.

    ➤ See latest Florida radar, forecasts

    Here’s what you should know so you can be prepared and stay safe.

    Possible impacts to Florida, US East Coast from Hurricane Kirk

    Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday.

    Expect to see building surf and dangerous rip currents. 

    ➤ Spaghetti models: Track Hurricane Kirk and see expected impacts

    From Saturday to Tuesday, those swells will create poor to hazardous boating conditions, according to the National Weather Service Melbourne. Seas are predicted to reach 4 to 6 feet near shore, and up to 7 feet offshore late Saturday into Sunday. Seas could hit 8 feet by Monday and remain hazardous into Tuesday.

    Possible impacts to Florida from tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico

    “A swath of torrential downpours will douse Florida, especially the central and southern parts of the peninsula, next week,” AccuWeather said. “The rain is likely to fall over a several-day stretch unless a more condensed hurricane forms. In this case, the heaviest rain may be focused over one day but could be intense.

    ➤ Tropical threat in Gulf of Mexico could hit Florida with 3 to 30 inches of rain

    ➤ WeatherTiger: South and Central Florida are likely to tally 3 inches or more

    “North Florida may or may not see significant rainfall from this, depending on the structure of the low and where it forms, but rains are not likely to last as long over the Panhandle as peninsular Florida,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

    “The risk of flooding downpours will ramp up later this weekend and may persist into the middle of next week, depending on the intensity and forward speed of the feature. Many inches to a foot or more of rain may fall in some locations, with the biggest rainfall likely to be from Interstate 4 south to the Keys. The AccuWeather Local StormMax rainfall is 30 inches for this setup,” AccuWeather said.

    If the system does develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, storm surge and damaging winds also can be expected.

    Weather alerts issued in Florida

    Follow National Weather Service Mobile on X, formerly known as Twitter

    • Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Northeast wind around 15 mph.
    • Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
    • Monday: Sunny, with a high near 85. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
    • Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
    • Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.
    • Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

    Follow the National Weather Service Tallahassee on X, formerly known as Twitter

    Models suggest that whatever develops in the Gulf of Mexico is more likely to remain well to our south, according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee.

    • Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
    • Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
    • Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
    • Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 84.
    • Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
    • Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

    Follow the National Weather Service Jacksonville on X, formerly known as Twitter

    “Locations across north-central FL and the local Atlantic coast could see periods of locally heavy rainfall, especially by mid-week,” according to the National Weather Service Jacksonville.

    “Blustery onshore winds will increase mid to late week with coastal and marine hazards increasing across the local area including the frequency of rip currents, beach erosion and tidal flooding. Waves of showers and potentially localized heavy rainfall will focus along our coastal counties and extend across portions of of our north- central FL zones, but where the low approaches and possibly crosses peninsula will ultimately dictate the rainfall footprint.”

    • Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
    • Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
    • Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
    • Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 84.
    • Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
    • Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

    Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

    “It is clear that heavy rain and flooding potential will be increasing as the week wears on. Exact locations and amounts are to be determined, though the southern half of east central Florida will be likely be favored for higher rain totals,” according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.

    Boating conditions will become poor to hazardous this weekend into next week as seas build.

    • Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
    • Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
    • Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
    • Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
    • Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

    Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

    “It is clear that heavy rain and flooding potential will be increasing as the week wears on. Exact locations and amounts are to be determined, though the southern half of east central Florida will be likely be favored for higher rain totals,” according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.

    Boating conditions will become poor to hazardous this weekend into next week as seas build.

    • Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind 10 to 15 mph.
    • Sunday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
    • Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
    • Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

    Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

    “It is clear that heavy rain and flooding potential will be increasing as the week wears on. Exact locations and amounts are to be determined, though the southern half of east central Florida will be likely be favored for higher rain totals,” according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.

    Boating conditions will become poor to hazardous this weekend into next week as seas build.

    • Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
    • Sunday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
    • Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
    • Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

    Follow the National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter

    “Regardless of whether the disturbance is able to organize, the primary threat for SFL remains the potential for periods of heavy rain next week. There is currently a broad consensus for a widespread 3-7 inches Sunday through mid-week, with localized totals potentially exceeding 10-12 inches,” according to the National Weather Service Miami.

    • Saturday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
    • Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
    • Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
    • Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Breezy.
    • Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy.

    Follow the National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter

    “Regardless of whether the disturbance is able to organize, the primary threat for SFL remains the potential for periods of heavy rain next week. There is currently a broad consensus for a widespread 3-7 inches Sunday through mid-week, with localized totals potentially exceeding 10-12 inches,” according to the National Weather Service Miami.

    • Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 100. East wind 7 to 9 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
    • Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
    • Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
    • Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East wind 9 to 14 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy.
    • Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy.

    Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter

    Tropical moisture is expected to come over the area starting on Sunday and sticking around through the middle part of the week, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.

    “Models are still uncertain if we will see any tropical development during this period, but expect it to be a wet period with widespread showers and winds increasing out the east” to around 17 to 23 mph.

    • Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 99. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
    • Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
    • Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    • Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter

    Tropical moisture is expected to come over the area starting on Sunday and sticking around through the middle part of the week, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.

    “Models are still uncertain if we will see any tropical development during this period, but expect it to be a wet period with widespread showers and winds increasing out the east” to around 17 to 23 mph.

    • Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 101. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
    • Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
    • Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
    • Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
    • Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
    • Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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