Richmond supported Trump in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans believe Trump’s dominance in the state will also boost Sheehy.

Montana has seen a wave of new residents in recent years. Although Montana voters do not register by party, a National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee analysis of voters new to the state between the 2018 elections and early 2023 found that about 40% were previously registered Republicans in other states, while 25% were registered Democrats.

That’s partly why some Republicans believe attacks portraying Sheehy as a wealthy outsider haven’t stuck.

An AARP poll conducted in late August showed Sheehy leading Tester by 6 points, 55% to 49%. The spread was within the study’s 3.5-point margin of error, but is also consistent with other publicly released studies showing Sheehy has an advantage. Sheehy had a net positive rating: 48% rated him positively and 45% rated him negatively. Tester, meanwhile, had a net negative rating: 43% rated him favorably and 52% rated him unfavorably.

In an interview with Fox News on the eve of the debate, Sheehy exuded confidence as he reflected on recent polls. Sheehy said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. “Jon Tester is checking” and that “the people of Montana are waking up to this reality.”

“We are going to win this case,” said the optimistic political newcomer.

But Tester and his allies believe he can still peel away Trump’s supporters — the same AARP survey found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points, 56% to 41%. The question is whether Tester can let go enough to win.

Democratic optimism

Tester’s allies think so. Gary Peters, D-Mich., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, compared Tester to Sen. Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who won reelection in 2020 even as Trump lost her state by 9 points, noting that both Maine and Montana had a smaller population.

“He’s been able to win tough, tough races,” Peters said of Tester at an event at the National Press Club last week. “So what he’s dealing with now is no different. And he’s a great retail politician. Retail really matters, especially in a small state. Montana is a very large state geographically, but a small state from a population perspective.”

Peters said Democrats are committed to devoting resources to Montana “until the end.” Tester and his Democratic allies have spent $105 million on ads in Montana so far, according to ad tracking company AdImpact. While Republicans have dropped $82 million on advertising in the state. Tester has far outspent Sheehy, spending $43.2 million to date to Sheehy’s $11 million.

Tester must win over a number of Trump-supporting independents and Republicans, a tall order in a state that Trump is expected to win easily. Tester appeared to try not to anger Trump supporters Monday night, referring to “party bosses” rather than Trump directly as he chided Sheehy and his fellow Republicans for opposing a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year.

Tester has a history of countering the state’s partisanship, winning more than 30,000 more votes than former President Barack Obama in 2012, outperforming former President Barack Obama by seven points to win a second term. But Republicans point to more recent results and higher turnout as signs of trouble for Tester.

In 2020, former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock won nearly 30,000 more votes than Biden when he ran for Senate, but he still lost by 10 percentage points to GOP Sen. Steve Daines.

Still, some Democrats believe Tester could defy the odds, backed by a robust ground game that can also leverage his support among Native American voters.

Near the end of Monday night’s debate, Tester criticized Sheehy for his statements from 2023, when Sheehy used stereotypes about alcoholism while speaking about the Crow tribe in Montana, according to audio recordings first reported by Char-Koosta News.

“If you really feel that way about Native Americans, you should apologize for the statements you made about them,” Tester said. Sheehy responded by referring to his military background.

“The reality is, yes, (it was) insensitive. I come from the military, like many of our tribe members. We make insensitive jokes and may be off-color at times,” says Sheehy.

It wasn’t the first time Sheehy’s use of Native American stereotypes came back to haunt him Monday. During a meeting he held with Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk just hours before the debate, two Native American protesters interrupted the campaign.

“You’re a racist! you are a racist!” one of the protesters chanted at Sheehy as he was forcibly removed from the University of Montana theater where the event was held Monday afternoon.

Democrats also believe a pro-abortion ballot initiative could also galvanize Tester among voters who want to codify abortion rights in Montana. WinSenate, a Democratic third-party group, recently began launching abortion-related ads in the state.

Sheehy said Monday that he would respect the decision of Montana voters, but he also appeared open to supporting federal action on abortion. He said he supports “common sense and life legislation,” which includes exceptions for rape, incest and protecting the life of the mother.

Tester characterized the issue as “fundamental to who we are as Montanans” who do not want the federal government involved in medical decisions.

“The bottom line is this: If we don’t want situations like what just happened in Georgia, when a woman died because doctors were afraid to treat her because she was afraid to go for help, to happen, then here’s your man,” Tester said. “If you want someone who is going to make sure women can make their own health care decisions, I’m your guy.”

Sarah Thaggard, a 34-year-old custodian and baker from Helena, told NBC News that she is supporting Tester out of concern that Sheehy could support a national abortion ban.

“I just know that if Sheehy gets into power, things are going to look really bad for women,” Thaggard said.

Montana Republican strategist Chuck Denowh, a former executive director of the state party, said in a telephone interview that the abortion ballot initiative is expected to give Tester a boost, but the Democrat still faces a difficult road and turnout is expected to be high in November.

“I don’t think this is enough to tip the scales for Tester. I think it helps him a little bit to bring out a few more of his constituents,” Denowh said. “But from the polls I’ve seen it looks like Sheehy is in a very good position at the moment.”

Bridget Bowman reported from Washington, DC; Alex Tabet reported from Missoula, Montana.