We’re headed into Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises that could happen and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking out one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 3 winners

Can Eagles edge rushers Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff get pressure on Derek Carr?

Through two weeks, the Eagles’ edge rush has been disappointing. Philadelphia ranks 27th in sack rate (4.4% of opponent dropbacks) and 30th in pressure rate (23.5%). The tandem of Sweat and Huff that many thought would be disruptive to opposing QBs has been anything but that. The duo has combined for just three pressures.

Saints rookie Taliese Fuaga has a 96% pass block win rate — ninth among tackles — and while Trevor Penning is still below average in the category (44th at 83%), he has improved. Plus, the heavy rate of play-action in the Klint Kubiak offense makes life easier for New Orleans’ pass protection. So if Philadelphia is going to disrupt the Saints’ hot streak to begin the season, Sweat and Huff are going to need to deliver more on Sunday.

Will Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. finally have a huge game?

A quick look at the box scores would make Pittman’s first two games look lackluster: seven receptions, 52 yards and zero touchdowns between the two contests. But look a little deeper and you’ll see the signs of a player whose production should explode. He has a 33% target rate (fifth best among wide receivers) and 13.6 air yards per target, a massive jump from the 7.6 he posted in the same category a year ago.

It’s a matter of when, not if, for Pittman’s big game. Will it be against the Bears in Week 3? The only thing that gives me pause is Chicago cornerback Jaylon Johnson — who has the lowest yards per coverage snap allowed (0.3) in the league among outside corners with at least 50 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But Johnson also didn’t follow a single receiver in either of the Bears’ first two games, so that still leaves plenty of room for a huge performance from Pittman on Sunday — especially since Tyrique Stevenson is being targeted 26% of the time and is allowing a massive 2.0 yards per coverage snap.

Can Jauan Jennings step up against the Rams in place of the 49ers’ injured playmakers?

The 49ers’ top playmakers are banged up; the Niners will be without Christian McCaffrey (calf, Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf) this weekend, and George Kittle missed practice Thursday with a hamstring injury. That suddenly leaves Jennings as the team’s No. 2 receiving option behind Brandon Aiyuk, who is off to a slow start. There’s reason to believe Jennings is up to the task, though. While we don’t have our receiver tracking metrics scores for 2024 yet, Jennings put up an above-average trio of 57 open score, 70 catch score and 59 YAC scores in 2023. In other words, he should be plenty capable of a big day in a larger role against Los Angeles.

Can linebacker Leo Chenal and the Chiefs’ run defense stop Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson?

Through two weeks, Chenal’s run-stopping numbers are looking strong. He has made a tackle on 36% of run plays in which he has been on the field, most of any linebacker. And he ranks second among linebackers (behind Fred Warner) in run stop win rate at 55%. Those are both substantial jumps from what Chenal posted last season.

And his proficiency against the run should come in handy against Atlanta: Robinson is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and outside of the Falcons’ game-winning two-minute drill against the Eagles on Monday, quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked shaky enough that Atlanta will surely need to produce on the ground Sunday night.

Can Ja’Marr Chase (and possibly Tee Higgins) take advantage of the Commanders’ cornerbacks?

In terms of matchups, it doesn’t get much easier than this for the Bengals’ wideouts. Washington’s top outside corner right now is Benjamin St-Juste, who has been targeted on 30% of dropbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats — the most of any outside corner with at least 50 coverage snaps. And St-Juste is allowing a higher-than-average 1.9 yards per coverage snap. Emmanuel Forbes Jr., meanwhile, is out with a thumb injury, so backup Noah Igbinoghene is playing opposite St-Juste. (To be fair, Igbinoghene has allowed just 8 yards in 27 coverage snaps.)

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Why Geno Smith is still a viable fantasy QB

Eric Karabell explains why fantasy managers shouldn’t forget about Seahawks QB Geno Smith.

If Higgins (hamstring) is indeed able to make his 2024 debut against the Commanders, Washington should provide a soft landing. And Higgins and Chase should both put up good numbers Monday.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (33.1% rostered): Pierce has put up 16-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. He leads the Colts in air yards and is not far behind Michael Pittman Jr. in snap count and routes run. Pierce has 10 targets compared to Pittman’s 15. But here’s a key stat you should know: Pierce has a higher average separation when the pass arrives than Pittman, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He should find success against Bears corner Tyrique Stevenson.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers (28.1% rostered): Jennings should see more targets against the Rams as the 49ers’ No. 2 receiver while Deebo Samuel is out due to a calf strain. No team has given up more receiving yards to wide receivers than the Rams, too. Jennings has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game when he has had five or more targets. He’s in a great spot this week.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (24.7% rostered): The Seahawks rank 10th in pass attempts per game, which is great news for Smith with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. He has scored 17-plus fantasy points in two straight games. With receivers like DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba running routes against Miami, Smith is set up for success. He has averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game at home with the Seahawks, which feels like his floor Sunday.

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Dan Orlovsky loves C.J. Stroud’s mentorship of Caleb Williams

Dan Orlovsky and the “Get Up” crew discuss the leadership displayed by C.J. Stroud in his postgame chat with Caleb Williams following the Texans’ win over the Bears.

Samaje Perine, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (21.9% rostered): Even though I expect Carson Steele to handle early downs and short-yardage situations in place of Isiah Pacheco (fibula), Perine should still see action in the Chiefs’ backfield on passing downs against the Falcons. While he has played only single-digit snaps in each of the first two games, Perine has been productive when given the ball in his career. In regular-season games where he has had 10 or more touches, he has averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game.

Jalen Nailor, WR, Minnesota Vikings (2.7% rostered): Jordan Addison is dealing with an ankle injury and was inactive in Week 2. Justin Jefferson also suffered a leg contusion. In that game against the 49ers, Nailor ran 28 routes and finished with 14.4 fantasy points. He even scored a touchdown for the second straight week. With Addison out again and Jefferson possibly limited, Nailor is in a good spot against the Texans.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

Caleb Williams throws his first touchdown pass

Through two games, Williams does not have a touchdown throw and is completing only 56.1% of his passes. However, with a matchup versus the Colts’ zone-heavy defense (68.5% of coverage snaps), the Bears can set up an open void for the rookie quarterback in the high red zone area of the field. That should give the No. 1 pick a chance to throw the first TD pass of his career.

Travis Kelce plays a big role in the Chiefs’ pass game

Kelce has caught just 4 of 7 targets for 39 yards this season. When we look at the tape, however, there have been opportunities for the veteran tight end to cash in on flood concepts, seam routes and underneath matchups. I expect coach Andy Reid to outscheme the Falcons’ three-deep zone coverage this week, creating openings for Patrick Mahomes to target his tight end. I expect Kelce to finish with over 60 yards receiving in this one.

Jaire Alexander intercepts Will Levis

Alexander has one interception on the season, and the Packers’ defense already has five total, most in the NFL. Given Levis’ aggressive throwing mentality (he has thrown three picks) and questionable decision-making, I see Alexander stealing one here Sunday.

Derrick Henry rushes for a touchdown

Henry has rushed for a touchdown in each of his first two games in Baltimore, and I see that streak continuing Sunday versus the Cowboys. This is a Dallas defense going through a transition under new coordinator Mike Zimmer, and the Cowboys have already allowed a league-high five rushing scores. Opponents are averaging 3.1 yards before first contact (24th in the league). It’s a good matchup for Henry.

The target volume stays up for Jameson Williams

Williams has shown his explosive ability to start the season, as he has posted four receptions of 20 yards or more. The Lions receiver has also seen at least nine targets and caught at least five balls in each game. I think the volume remains consistent against Arizona on Sunday, with Williams securing more than four receptions yet again.

Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 3

Chicago Bears (+1) at Indianapolis Colts

There are four units in this game, and I’m convinced that only one of them is good: the Bears’ defense. Since the Montez Sweat trade last season, it ranks first in both EPA per play and success rate defensively. Chicago has had a soft schedule, but it’s noteworthy that the Bears largely kept the clamps on C.J. Stroud and the Texans on Sunday night.

Now they get an error-prone Colts offense that survives only on explosive plays. With a banged-up Colts defense awaiting the Bears’ offense, I think Caleb Williams does enough to build a lead that this defense can maintain down the stretch.

Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

The Steelers are preparing for Justin Herbert (high ankle sprain) to play Sunday for the Chargers but are “ready for all options,” via a source. Herbert, who is questionable, hopes to play. But with pain involved, the decision could push into Sunday as a game-time decision.

As for Pittsburgh’s own quarterbacks, Russell Wilson (questionable, calf) is set to miss a third straight game, but the people I’ve talked to there don’t get the sense he will end up on injured reserve. So eventually, Wilson will be healthy enough to play. That could be Week 4. It could be Week 5. But things will get really interesting in Pittsburgh at that point, because Wilson was the clear favorite to start before Week 1 … yet Justin Fields keeps winning.

With Baltimore having lost its first two games, the Ravens aren’t panicked — they’re urgent. The message in offensive meetings has been clear: It’s about us, let’s clean up the sloppy play. The offensive line has been a concern, and while the Ravens are hoping the young group jells over time, there could be lineup tweaks if improvements don’t come. This could be a big Derrick Henry game, as Baltimore is tied for second in yards per rush (5.7), while Dallas leads the league in rushing touchdowns allowed (five). But the Ravens want Lamar Jackson to limit his runs, when possible, for injury concern.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love (questionable, knee) participating in three consecutive practices is a good sign leading into Sunday’s matchup with Tennessee. But even if he’s ahead of schedule, the Packers are notoriously cautious with injuries. This is shaping up to be more of a game-time decision — and a tough situation for the Titans, who have loosely prepared for both Love and Malik Willis.

Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett is working “around the clock” to treat his sore feet that forced him to miss two practices this week. He does not plan to miss any games over this issue. But don’t be surprised if Cleveland manages his snaps against the Giants.