Millions of people living along the Gulf Coast are being urged to prepare as the next tropical threat to the U.S. emerges in the Caribbean. In addition, there are growing signs that the ingredients needed to form a tropical storm or hurricane are in place.

Several computer models predict that a major tropical storm or hurricane will develop in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the forecast, with several possible outcomes.

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The chances of the system developing are steadily increasing. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there is a high chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days.

“I really want you to be on the lookout, from Texas to Florida, for tropical development,” said Michael Estime, FOX Weather meteorologist.

According to the NHC, a very large low pressure area is currently causing patchy showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and parts of Central America.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system over the next several days,” the NHC said in its latest outlook. “A tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.”

Regardless of developments, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Central America in the coming days, the NHC said.

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Creating a weather puzzle

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Pieces of this intricate weather puzzle are slowly falling into place. This includes a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre.

The gyre is a vast area of low pressure which feeds on moisture flowing from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a producer of heavy rainfall with effects extending hundreds of kilometers and leading to threats of torrential rains, flood And landslides for more than a dozen countries in and around Central America.

WHAT IS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE?

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However, organized low pressure areas can develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes within the larger gyre as water temperatures and upper air layers rise. to wind become favorable for tropical development. Current water temperatures in the Caribbean are close to last season’s record warm levels.

The ultimate fate of tropical development will depend on the location of the vortex, how strong it becomes, and the atmospheric steering or blocking patterns that occur over the southern U.S.