A tropical storm is expected to form in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico and eventually move toward Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week. However, details about potential intensity, track, and timing are not yet available.

Stakeholders along the entire U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the situation closely and stay informed of weather forecasts for the coming days.

The area to watch: A low pressure area is expected to develop over the western Caribbean Sea over the next day or so, which will lead to increasingly stormy weather. We have already seen an increase in thunderstorm activity over Central America and the western Caribbean Sea over the past few days.

The National Hurricane Center has demarcated an area in the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico where a tropical storm is likely to form.

Here are the times when a storm can form and where it can move:

-​ Tuesday: The latest computer forecast models suggest that a tropical depression or storm could form as early as Tuesday if it is located near Cancun or western Cuba. Locally heavy rains are possible in those areas. The next storm is named Helene.

-​ Thursday: We expect the storm to be pushed generally northward into the Gulf of Mexico by steering winds around high pressure off the southeast coast and low pressure over the south-central U.S. As usual, forecast models vary on this far. But generally speaking, that could bring the center of this system to the Gulf Coast somewhere between Florida and Louisiana on Thursday or Thursday night.

-​ Friday:This system would then either continue inland across the southeast or scrape along the southeast coast.

Could it become a hurricane? It is certainly possible. The heat content of the ocean is a favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows that there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

But there are other factors that matter, such as whether the wind pattern at higher levels is favorable for significant intensification. It is also unknown whether there is dry air nearby that could hinder intensification.

Stakeholders along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the situation closely while ensuring hurricane preparedness plans are in place. Stay tuned to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates throughout the weekend and beyond as we provide more details on what to expect.