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What lies in the path of Hurricane Francine? Where the storm is expected to hit.

Vaseline September 10, 2024

Editor’s Note: Read Tuesday’s updates on Francine as the storm reaches the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Francine, which formed on Monday, has been taking a slow, meandering path across the Gulf. It is now gaining speed and is headed directly toward the Louisiana Gulf Coast, where it is expected to make landfall sometime Wednesday.

“Francine is expected to be just off the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through this afternoon, then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said in an afternoon forecast Tuesday. Cities closest to the expected landfall location are Morgan City and Houma, Louisiana.

New Orleans should brace for major flooding, wind gusts of up to 73 mph, the possibility of tornadoes and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet, the local weather service said Tuesday. The city, infamous for Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was just east of Francine’s worst impacts, according to Tuesday’s forecast.

After the storm makes landfall, the center is expected to move into Mississippi “Wednesday night or Thursday.”

As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually moves inland through Louisiana, increasing potential for life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds and significant flooding is expected, the hurricane center warned.

As Francine approached, authorities issued mandatory evacuations of residents in three coastal communities. Schools were closed and officials distributed sandbags.

Tracker for Tropical Storm Francine

What makes Francine move north?

Other weather systems are pushing Francine back and forth: An approaching low pressure center over Texas should cause Francine to turn more rapidly toward the northeast over the next 24-36 hours. “This movement should bring the center toward the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening,” the hurricane center said.

“After Francine makes landfall, it will curve further north, between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States.”

Louisiana is no stranger to storms

The most recent hurricane to hit Louisiana was Ida in 2021, according to AccuWeather. “Between 2019 and 2021, Louisiana had eight tropical storm or hurricane landfalls, including major hurricanes Laura and Ida,” AccuWeather meteorologist Alyssa Glenny noted in an online report.

Heavy rainfall and risk of flooding inland

In addition to the threat of strong winds and storm surges, there is also the threat of heavy rainfall:

“Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for significant flash and urban flooding from extreme northeastern Mexico to the extreme southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday,” the hurricane center said. Unexpected flash and urban flooding is likely across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.

The National Weather Service said precipitation amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected Thursday night, with local amounts of up to 12 inches across much of central and eastern Louisiana and Mississippi.

Francine spaghetti models

Spaghetti model illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models to create its forecasts.