On Saturday, Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka will play for the US Open title (4 p.m. ET (ESPN; ESPN+)). Pegula is the underdog and is playing in her first major final, while Sabalenka has two Australian Open titles and has reached the US Open final for the past two years.

Who wins? Our experts give their opinion.

What can Pegula do to beat Sabalenka?

Jason Goodall: To have any chance (unless Sabalenka collapses), Pegula must find a solution to the puzzle of how to return Sabalenka’s first serve and score enough points with her second serve.

In the final of the Cincinnati Open — granted, the conditions were much faster, which played to Sabalenka’s advantage — Pegula really struggled to get the slice serve wide to her forehand in the right court. Even when she got the ball back, Sabalenka then made good use of her first stroke to outsmart Pegula.

And when she saw Pegula’s second serve — which is very predictable — she jumped on it. Can Pegula serve well enough to put pressure on the scoreboard — and can she return well enough to neutralize Sabalenka’s serve?

D’Arcy Maine: It will be a tough battle for the American. In addition to Sabalenka’s experience in major finals, she also has a 5-2 series lead over Pegula.

But Pegula wasn’t exactly a favorite against Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals. She also didn’t seem to have a chance of reaching the final in the first set against Karolina Muchova on Thursday night. And yet here she is.

If Pegula wants to beat Sabalenka on Saturday, she can’t afford to have a slow, flat start like she did on Thursday. She’ll have to be ready to go from the first point. But she knows exactly what to expect after the two met in the final in Cincinnati less than three weeks ago. Pegula said she knew she had to be aggressive, “put some pressure on my serve” and just play her game. She’s been largely unflappable and calm the past two weeks and will need to be equally calm on Saturday, despite playing the biggest match of her life.

Bill Connelly: The serve is pretty much everything. In Pegula’s two wins over Sabalenka (Cincinnati 2020 and Cancun 2023), she has landed at least 61% of her first serves and won at least 63% of her first serve points; in five losses, her first serve percentage has been 59% or worse four times and her first serve winning percentage has been 56% or worse four times. Sabalenka is such a big server that you don’t get that many break chances and you have to create as many easy holds for yourself as possible. Pegula is capable and her serve has gotten better as her semifinal win over Muchova unfolded, but the bar is set very high here.

Tom Hamilton: Play the match of her life and channel the crowd. This will be an incredible opportunity for Pegula, and she needs to use the hype and expectations as fuel, rather than something to stir up the butterflies in her stomach. She can’t afford to let Sabalenka get off to a fast start and have the same slow start to the match as she did against Muchova.

“I was about to burst into tears because it was embarrassing. She destroyed me,” Pegula said after her eventual semifinal victory on Thursday. Pegula considers Sabalenka “the favorite to win this tournament,” but Pegula needs to put all that aside and ignore the story of the tape, which shows Sabalenka leading 5-2 in their head-to-head matches. Pegula is used to disrupting the odds, as she did against Swiatek, but she needs to throw everything at Sabalenka from the start.

Ohm Youngmisuk: Pegula needs to make sure Sabalenka doesn’t get comfortable. That might mean changing pace, mixing it up with topspin and slice, taking the ball early and coming out occasionally to give Sabalenka a different look.

The longer the points, the better it could be for Pegula. At one point in her semifinal victory between the second and third sets, Pegula won 10 of 17 points that had hit nine or more balls during the point. Pegula will have to rely on her tennis IQ and willpower to win and hope to tire Sabalenka out with long rallies. More than anything, she needs to engage the crowd. Most of Arthur Ashe Stadium will be behind her. She needs to get the crowd behind her and pump it up.

What can Sabalenka do to beat Pegula?

Alright everyone: Sabalenka is the overwhelming favorite, drawing on everything she learned from last year’s heartbreaking loss to Coco Gauff in the US Open final. She will go into this final with a warning and a weapon.

She will also know that the game plan she executed in the Cincinnati final is working perfectly, so the focus will be on execution under pressure. Can Sabalenka handle the moment as the favorite with the crowd against her, which she struggled with in last year’s final?

Maine: Keep doing exactly what she did during her incredible run on the hard courts this summer. In her last 11 matches — which included winning the Cincinnati title and reaching the final here in New York — she has dropped just one set.

She knows all the emotions that come with playing in such a match, and even what it’s like to face an American on Ashe with a title on the line. In 2023, after winning the opening set in the final against Gauff, she struggled with the crowd against her and let her nerves get to her. On Thursday against American Emma Navarro, Sabalenka struggled to close the match in the second set as the crowd cheered her opponent wildly. But she used her previous experience to focus and pull through. She called last year’s loss a “very tough lesson” — but one she wouldn’t let happen again. That mindset and learning from her past mistakes could help her win her third Grand Slam title on Saturday.

Connelly: Nothing. Nothing. newAt least. Sabalenka is simply the best hardcourt player in the world. She is currently 31-2 in her last five hardcourt Slams. She has won 11 of 15 sets against Pegula, she has won 22 of her last 23 sets, and she served Pegula off the court a few weeks ago in the Cincinnati final. After a tough run in three-setters — she lost nine of 15 from the summer of 2023 to the spring of 2024 — she has won eight of her last 11. She is the gold standard on this court, and it is up to Pegula to find a way past her.

Hamilton: As everyone says, just do what comes naturally to you on this surface. It would be the perfect end to a year in which she won the Australian Open in January, then fell ill in her quarterfinal defeat to Mirra Andreeva in Paris, pulled out of Wimbledon with a shoulder injury and then returned in remarkable form for this swing in New York. Sabalenka knows what it takes to win a Slam final and that experience will be invaluable come Saturday. But she has to shut out the crowd — she’ll have support, but it’ll feel like the world is against her.

Youngmisuk: Sabalenka just has to play her game, stay focused, stay confident and control her emotions in what will be a pro-Pegula crowd. The US Open fans want to see an American back on top. Sabalenka can take the crowd out of the match early by overpowering and dominating Pegula as she has done throughout this tournament. Once she gets going, it’s so hard to stop her. And when Pegula makes a run with the packed stadium behind her, Sabalenka has to weather the storm.

Who’s going to win?

Maine: Sabalenka. It would be great to see an American woman win the title for a second year in a row — and Pegula’s resilience and determination make for a great story — but it’s hard to see anyone beating Sabalenka on this surface. Sabalenka doesn’t let this opportunity pass her by again, and she wins it in straight sets.

Connelly: Yep, Sabalenka. Pegula has beaten her before, and nothing is impossible, but the odds are stacked against Sabalenka, and for good reason. Pegula is going to have to serve Gauff, get inside her head a little bit. But I’m going to call Sabalenka in straight sets.

Hamilton: If Pegula can pull this off, it would go down as one of the greatest achievements in modern American tennis history. But Sabalenka is just playing too well and knows what it takes to get over the line, so she has the form and experience to pull it off.

Youngmisuk: Pegula has had such a great run. She must feel like the whole of New York City is cheering her on to win the title. But Sabalenka is just playing at a different level now. She has won 35 of the 38 sets she has played in majors this season (92%). It is hard to see Sabalenka not finishing her job and winning the US Open title.

The betting perspective

Pamela Maldonado: Jessica Pegula +250 vs. Aryna Sabalenka

In a Grand Slam final, the mental aspect of the game often outweighs pure skill. Jessica Pegula showed remarkable mental strength at the 2024 US Open. Her straight-sets quarterfinal victory over World No. 1 Iga Świątek was a major breakthrough, marking her first victory over Świątek at a Grand Slam and her first major quarterfinal victory in six previous attempts. The performance represents a significant mental milestone, demonstrating Pegula’s ability to overcome past disappointments and improve her performance.

Pegula’s resilience was even more evident in her comeback in the semifinal against Muchova, where she came back from a set and a break down. These performances show me that Pegula is mentally ready for the final.

As for the matchup with Sabalenka, Pegula’s strong return game could be crucial, potentially exploiting Sabalenka’s occasional serving inconsistencies. Pegula’s game, based on consistency and minimizing unforced errors, contrasts with Sabalenka’s more aggressive style. Her excellent court coverage and ability to extend rallies could frustrate power players like Sabalenka.

Pegula has also shown tactical flexibility. In her semi-final against Muchova, she adjusted her strategy after losing the first set, varying her serves, targeting Muchova’s backhand and increasing her aggression on returns in the third set. This adaptability could be a key factor in the final against Sabalenka. She struck a major blow for outright victory in Pegula’s first major final.