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Tropical development possible in the Caribbean and the Atlantic Ocean
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Tropical development possible in the Caribbean and the Atlantic Ocean

By means of Chris Dolce, Caitlin Kaiser, Jonathan Belles

less than an hour ago

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  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas where tropical storms may develop.
  • One of these, currently in the Caribbean, could develop near the Yucatan or in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
  • Two other disturbances are located in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical development is possible in three areas monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC): one in the Caribbean and two systems in the central and eastern Atlantic.

It’s been two weeks since the last time a named storm (Hurricane Ernesto) crossed the Atlantic basin. Here’s the latest on when the next Atlantic storm, to be named Francine, might form.

Development potential in the Caribbean, Gulf: This system is an area of ​​disturbed weather, a so-called tropical wave, located in the central Caribbean Sea. It is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward.

Tropical development is possible late this week or this weekend when this system reaches the waters of the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. That is when atmospheric conditions could become more hospitable for the formation of a tropical depression or storm.

One barrier to the development of this system so far has been stable air, which limits its ability to generate and organize persistent thunderstorms.

In the short to medium term, this system could bring heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of Jamaica, Central America, and Mexico regardless of how it develops. It is still uncertain what kind of threat this system could pose to the continental United States, if any.

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The development of the central and eastern Atlantic systems is also being closely monitored: One of the Atlantic disturbances showing promising development is located just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands. This system has a medium chance of development as it moves west-northwest through the Atlantic this week.

Cape Verde could see rain and gusty winds from this system over the next day or two.

A second system is swirling in the central Atlantic. Some slow development is possible before conditions become more unfavorable later this week. It poses no threat to any land area.

Typical for this time of year: The two areas of potential tropical development are in areas that are typically active at this time of year. September is the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, so it has the most widespread area of ​​potential development in the six-month hurricane season.