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Odds, picks and best bets for the Week 5 SEC showdown
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Odds, picks and best bets for the Week 5 SEC showdown

The college football world will turn its eyes to Tuscaloosa on Saturday night as No. 4 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia in a crucial early-season SEC matchup.

Georgia is looking for revenge after beating Alabama in the SEC Championship last fall, while Kalen DeBoer would like nothing more than to get his first statement win as Crimson Tide head coach against Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs.

Odds between Georgia and Alabama

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Georgia -1.5 (-115) -125 <49.5 (-110)
Alabama +1.5 (-105) +105 u49.5 (-110)
Odds via BetMGM

When Georgia has the ball

The last time we saw Carson Beck, he was struggling to move the ball against Kentucky’s defense two weeks ago before Georgia’s bye.

He finished with 160 passing yards on a 15-of-24 completion percentage in a game the Bulldogs had just 12 first downs and 262 yards of offense. It was a performance that pushed the quarterback’s Heisman odds from 14/1 to 18/1.

That’s not enough against an Alabama defense that has posted the second-lowest success rate and ranks 11th in PFF coverage grades.

Keeping Beck out of obvious passing situations will be key, and the Bulldogs will lean on former Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne on early downs.

Etienne, the brother of Jaguars RB Travis Etienne, has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over three years in the SEC and more than four yards after first contact per attempt.

Alabama, which allowed 150 yards after hitting South Florida in Week 2, has yet to face a running back of Etienne’s caliber.


Expect Trevor Etienne to play a big role for the Bulldogs on early downs.
Expect Trevor Etienne to play a big role for the Bulldogs on early downs. Getty Images

When Alabama has the ball

Jalen Milroe’s improvement through three games has been impressive. He still doesn’t use the middle part of the pitch at a high rate, but he has significantly reduced his errors; his turnover-worthy play percentage has dropped from 2.8% to 1.4%.

Milroe remains one of the nation’s top deep ball passers, having completed 7 of 14 passes of at least 20 yards for 302 yards and five touchdowns.

The Crimson Tide is loaded at wide receiver, but the player the Bulldogs will need to consider most is true freshman Ryan Williams, who has caught 10 of 12 targets for 285 yards and four touchdowns in three games.

His elite speed, combined with Milroe’s rocket arm, puts tremendous pressure on the back of the defense and will force the Bulldogs to hold lighter boxes against the run.

If the Bulldogs can’t commit additional resources to stopping the run, that will open up opportunities for Milroe at rusher and for the talented backfield duo of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, who are averaging nine yards per carry combined this season.

Georgia ranks just 95th in defensive rushing success rate, and it could struggle to stop the run on early downs.


Betting on college football?


Georgia vs. Alabama picks

Since 2008, Georgia is 1-8 straight and 4-5 against the spread against Alabama, according to Action Network.

After playing 113 consecutive home games as favorites, Alabama is an underdog in this matchup – the first time they have been a home dog since November 2007.

The odds portend a changing of the SEC guard in the post-Nick Saban era, but DeBoer has his team firing on all cylinders early this season.

Both teams will be well prepared for a bye week, but I’m siding with the Crimson Tide offense, with Milroe and Williams providing the big threat in this game.

I’m rooting for Alabama as a rare underdog in what has the potential to be the game of the year on Saturday night.

Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+105, BetMGM)


Why trust New York Post betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He is up 84.5 units in the two sports with an ROI of 6.27%.