Joel Klatt

Head college football analyst

One of the biggest games of the college football season is scheduled for Saturday.

No. No. 2 Georgia heads to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 4 Alabama in a rematch of last season’s SEC title game. So far, every team has done what it was supposed to do. Both teams are 3-0, with Georgia picking up a win against Kentucky and Alabama winning comfortably against Wisconsin in Week 3.

With both teams holding serve so far, the significance of this match remains the same from when I referred to it as one of the ten matches that will define the 2024 season in June. I’ll get a full on-field preview of this game on Thursday’s episode of “The Joel Klatt Show.” But since the fallout from Saturday’s result will likely be enormous, I want to evaluate from a 9,000-meter perspective where these programs stand compared to the rest of the sport and where each of them stand in their respective histories.

It’s clear that the two head coaches in Saturday’s game are very good. I consider Kirby Smart to be the best coach in college football right now. His record speaks for itself: two national championships with both wins coming in the last three years.

But where is the pressure in this game, at least how it relates to the coaches? You might think to yourself, “The obvious answer to that question is the guy who replaces Nick Saban.” If you think that, slow down for a moment. I actually think there will be more pressure on Smart in Saturday’s match.

Smart did everything and he dominated everyone in the sport. Well, he’s done all but one thing: overtake his mentor at Alabama, Nick Saban. He was 1-5 against Alabama in the six games he played against Saban after becoming Georgia’s head coach in 2016. Even during Georgia’s dominant run the past three seasons, Alabama was the kryptonite. Georgia’s only two losses since 2021 came to Alabama, which went 1-2 against the Crimson flood in the past three years.

So the story around Smart, at least to me, is that he is the best coach in college football, but he couldn’t beat Saban. If Smart actually loses this match on Saturday, this will be a big problem for him. The one problem he has had would change from a Nick Saban problem to an Alabama problem that he still has.

So far, you can at least assuage the problem Smart has had with Alabama so far by saying, “All he’s doing is losing games to Saban, the best coach in the history of the sport.” But if Smart loses to Kalen DeBoer on Saturday, the Alabama problem will get worse. Alabama has a great recruiting class, and getting a signature win like this early in his tenure would be validation of what he’s building in Tuscaloosa. That wouldn’t be good for Smart.

Kirby Smart coached under Nick Saban at Alabama for nine seasons. He went 1-5 against Saban as head coach at Georgia.

On the other hand, those who think DeBoer will put more pressure on him in Saturday’s game have good reason to feel that way. The success Saban had against Georgia puts pressure on DeBoer to do the same. If Alabama can’t win on Saturday, the Tide could take a step back from where they have been the last fifteen years. I don’t think Alabama fans would be too happy about a clear step backwards.

DeBoer has not been tested in his young tenure at Alabama. We thought Wisconsin could be the first big test for him, but the Badgers weren’t in a position to threaten a team like the Crimson Tide with all the firepower they have. Maybe that game was more of a bread basket before the appetizer that will be the game against Georgia.

DeBoer needs to win this match. If he doesn’t, it would not only be a clear step back from what things have been like at Alabama, but it could also impact his upcoming recruiting class. Alabama’s 2025 recruiting class is the second-best in the nation, according to 247 Sports. But that doesn’t mean the class will rank very highly on signing day, and I think this game could steer some recruits in certain directions.

I do want to make a caveat about DeBoer, though: If he loses in a really close game and Alabama plays really well, I think everyone will say, “Okay, you know what? We’re doing good.” If Alabama loses by multiple scores in a big night game, some people might think to themselves that this is a definite step back from the Saban days. DeBoer desperately wants to avoid that. He doesn’t want to deal with that as a story around him or during the recruiting process.

Georgia vs. Alabama: Who has more pressure on Saturday?

What actually happens if Alabama wins? That would be a huge opportunity for DeBoer. It could allow him to plant the flag and say, “The greatest coach in the history of the sport will not be ousted.” That says something. Therefore, it would be a seismic win for DeBoer and Alabama.

Getting back to the recruiting element, Alabama actually has the highest per-player rating in the Class of 2025 on 247 Sports. The Tide has more five-star commitments than anyone. So DeBoer has already recruited exceptionally well in his short time at Alabama. A win over Georgia would put that class, which has just 20 commits, into hyperdrive. Maybe you can get a few more five stars to finish that recruiting class.

If we remove the coaches and focus on the programs, the consequences of a loss for any team would be quite severe for this season. One of the things I dread are those who say the 12-team playoffs create a meaningless regular season and it doesn’t matter what happens in games like Saturday’s game.

I strongly disagree with that sentiment. The loser of Saturday’s game will find themselves in a position where returning to the SEC Championship Game is nearly impossible. It’s not entirely impossible, but the loser would probably have to control the table. Even then, the team wouldn’t be guaranteed to make it to the conference title game.

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If you can’t make it to the SEC Championship Game, that means you definitely won’t have a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. That’s a big problem. Looking at the schedules each team has after Saturday’s match, it is far from a guarantee that the loser will also be at the table. If that team suffers a second loss, not only will you not get a bye, but you will likely be playing on the road in the first round of the CFP.

Let’s take a quick look at each team’s schedule. Georgia still has games at No. 1 Texas and No. 6 Ole Miss before hosting No. 5 Tennessee in November. As for Alabama, it has games at No. 5 Tennessee, No. 14 LSU and No. 21 Oklahoma. It also has a home game against No. 11 Missouri and closes the year against Auburn, which was always a tough loss even during Saban’s best seasons.

Suffice it to say, the loser of this game has a slim path to the SEC title game. That alone would make this game monumental. When you consider the pressure, expectations and stories surrounding the two coaches and programs, this is a huge matchup.

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ chief football analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.Follow him on X/Twitter @joelklat And subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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