The pitching chaos worked again for the Tigers as Detroit relievers held the Guardians scoreless in Game 3 of the ALDS Wednesday, giving up just six hits and two walks while striking out six. Cleveland will turn to Tanner Bibee in Game 4 Thursday (6:08 PM ET) to help the team escape with a crucial victory in an elimination game. It appears the betting apps in Michigan are out of alignment with the moneyline for this crucial game four.

Detroit will once again hit the mound with chaos. Despite being up 2-1 in the series and playing at home, the Tigers are +100 underdogs via Caesars Sportsbook. But they were also house dogs in Game 3, and it didn’t matter.

Can Tanner Bibee secure another win?

If the Guardians want to take the series back to Cleveland for a decisive Game 5, they will need 25-year-old Tanner Bibee to get the team off to a solid start in Game 4. Bibee started Game 1 for the Guardians, throwing 4 2 /3 innings of shutout ball, giving up just four hits and a walk while striking out six.

Four relievers held the Tigers hitless over the remaining 4 1/3, while striking out seven.

Bibee was a solid pitcher for the Guardians during the regular season, posting an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.12 over 173 2/3 innings. However, while his numbers are good overall, he is throwing even better on the road. In 15 road starts, he posted a 2.76 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and held opposing hitters to a .217 batting average. Michigan’s top sportsbook believes Detroit will have the upper hand in Game 4.

But as important as a strong performance on the mound will be for the Guardians, they also need to rediscover their offense. Since scoring seven runs in Game 1, the Guardians have managed just nine hits while being shutout in Games 2 and 3.

Tigers vs. Guardians betting

While the Guardians hope Bibee can get them on track in Game 4, it’s worth pointing out how he pitched against the Tigers during the regular season: 22 innings over four starts, giving up 19 hits ( .241 against BA) and 11 runs (4.50 ERA) while striking out 19.

He didn’t take the decision into account in two games and split the other two. So while he did well in Game 1, the rest of his recent history against the Tigers isn’t ideal.

Gamblers, however, don’t seem too concerned. According to an industry average, 63% of moneyline tickets are on the Indians (-115 via BetMGM Sportsbook), but 72% of tickets are on the Tigers ML (+100 via Caesars). In terms of runline (-1.5 vs. +160 via Caesars), the most tickets (72%) and handle (85%) are on the Guardians.

After watching two low-scoring games, bettors take the UNDER (6.5 vs. +100 via Caesars) on 69% of tickets for 72% of the deal.

Believe in the bullpen

From the outside, AJ Hinch’s ‘pitching chaos’ strategy may seem a bit foolish. But when you look at the numbers, it makes perfect sense.

During postseason play, Detroit relievers have posted a 1.86 ERA over 29 innings (leads postseason). They have given up 19 hits and six runs, posting a 1.0 WHIP and holding opponents’ batting averages to a .186. Take away Tyler Holton’s disastrous 1 1/3 innings of work in Game 1 of the ALDS (four runs allowed), and the numbers are even more impressive.

So if Reese Olson, who is expected to throw the bulk of the innings in Game 4, can again deliver a performance like he had in Game 1 (5 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run), there’s a good chance that the Tigers bullpen can punch Detroit’s ticket to the ALCS.

Guardians vs Tigers Prop Betting

*Odds vid DraftKings

Gag Bet No. 1: Tanner Bibee walks allowed

• 1+ (-300)
• 2+ (+140)
• 3+ (+425)

What to bet: It’s not unusual for Bibee to walk a few batters when he pitches, but he will often make a full start without recording a single walk. However, after hitting a game-tying home run in Game 2 with elimination on the line, I wouldn’t be surprised if they threw around Kerry Carpenter all night. Take 2+, but think carefully about five 3+.

Prop bet #2: Tanner Bibee hits allowed

• 3+ (-245)
• 4+ (-105)
• 5+ (+195)
• 6+ (+390)
• 7+ (+750)

What to bet: Bibee gave up just four in 4 2/3 innings in Game 1 and averaged almost one hit per inning during the regular season. That makes it look like four hits can cover the floor, but if the Tigers are dialed in and are trying to take out the Guardians at home, you’re taking 5+.

Guardians vs Tigers prediction

The Tigers ML is a solid bet, but again, the UNDER may be too good to pass up. Neither team batted well. Given how good both bullpens are, that trend will likely continue, translating into another low mark.

Our choice: UNDER 6.5 at +100 (via BetMGM, Caesars and DraftKings)