TAMPA, Fla. – Hurricane Milton remains an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, with the National Hurricane Center warning it could be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, the major hurricane was located at 22.5N and 88.2W. The National Hurricane Center said it had maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour and was moving east to northeast in the Gulf of Mexico at a speed of 8 miles per hour.

According to the NHC, the storm is completing an eyewall replacement, which will result in the strongest winds extending further from the center of the storm as the eye expands.

On Wednesday, Milton is expected to experience a less favorable environment with strong shear, which meteorologists say will weaken the storm.

Hurricane Milton is expected to experience wind shear prior to landfall, which will likely cause some weakening. Either way, it will be a major hurricane upon landfall.

Even if the storm weakens, it is expected to be a major hurricane upon landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 51 Florida counties, while President Joe Biden approved a federal disaster declaration ahead of Milton.

Models show Hurricane Milton making landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Watches and warnings

A hurricane warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach north to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Hurricane warnings extend to much of Florida’s east coast.

A storm surge warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire Tampa Bay area, most of Central Florida and all of South Florida.

What is the difference between a watch and a warning?

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the expected first appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the expected first tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane Milton: Mandatory evacuations begin in the Tampa Bay Area

A storm surge warning means there is a risk of life-threatening flooding at the indicated locations over the next 36 hours due to rising water moving inland from the coastline.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding in the indicated locations over the next 48 hours as rising waters move inland from the coastline.

What is the timeline for the Bay Area’s impacts?

FOX 13 meteorologists say rain and strong winds will arrive from Milton on Wednesday, with a landfall as a major hurricane expected Wednesday evening or early Thursday.

Hurricane Milton: Bay Area schools close due to storm

According to FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg, the exact point of landfall will make a significant difference when it comes to impacts like a storm surge.

The location of landfall is critical when it comes to Hurricane Milton’s major impacts, including life-threatening storm surge.

“Where this storm makes landfall, and perhaps 20 to 30 miles south, will be the largest storm surge,” Osterberg said.

A storm surge can reach 3 to 4 meters in height in the worst areas.

Hurricane Milton’s storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet in the worst areas.

Rain will also be significant on Wednesday and Thursday, with 2 to 4 inches of rain expected in parts of the Bay Area.

Hurricane Milton could bring 6 to 10 inches of rain to parts of the Tampa Bay area.

Tropical storm gusts are expected Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane-force wind gusts will be felt throughout the Bay Area, including inland regions, as Milton moves across the state late Wednesday and early Thursday.

According to Osterberg, the tropical storm force winds could extend as far as 200 miles from central Milton by the time they reach Florida.

STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 13 TAMPA BAY: