How much has Hurricane Milton grown?

With parts of the southern US still reeling from the disastrous Hurricane Helene, the rapid advance of Hurricane Milton has caught many off guard.

In just a day, Milton went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest possible classification, with winds of 185 mph as it barreled across the Gulf of Mexico into the heart of Florida.

The storm was undergoing “rapid intensification,” which is when a storm increases by at least 35 mph (56 km/h) in a 24-hour period. Milton’s blistering pace obliterated this benchmark, accelerating at 93 mph in about 25 hours, according to the research group Climate Central.

This has led to one of the strongest hurricanes to ever threaten the U.S., even as Milton weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm on Tuesday amid mass evacuations from the Tampa area. “This is nothing short of astronomical,” said Noah Bergren, a Florida-based meteorologist. “This hurricane is approaching the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere can produce above this ocean water.”

How did it become so strong so quickly?

As hurricanes form, their strength is determined by a number of factors, such as thunderstorms and wind shear, which can disrupt the storm’s tight circular organization.

However, a key determinant of rapid intensification is the heat content of the ocean and atmosphere. Hotter air and water provide more energy to a storm, causing it to spin faster and contain more moisture that is then dumped on communities in deluges of rain, causing flooding.

Crucially, the Gulf of Mexico is reaching record temperatures for most of this year, with the water being likened to a bathtub during the summer. Milton’s core passes through exceptionally warm water, about 3F to 5F (2C to 3C) hotter than average for this time of year. Milton is turbocharged by excess heat, just as Helene was just two weeks ago.

What causes such violent storms?

Although hurricanes have always formed in this part of the world, scientists are clear that global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels is likely to make storms faster, stronger and wetter.

A study published last year found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean are now about 29% more likely to intensify rapidly than they were between 1971 and 1990. Separate research has found that natural variability alone is driving the increase in rapidly intensifying cannot explain storms. pointing to the role of climate change.

Milton joins a growing list of storms that have quickly become catastrophic, life-changing hurricanes in recent years, such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021 and Hurricane Ian in 2022, which brought two different rounds of storms underwent. rapid intensification. In total, as many Category 4 or 5 Atlantic hurricanes have hit the U.S. since 2017 as in the previous 57 years.

“We are witnessing a truly extraordinary and regionally quite deadly and destructive period for extreme weather in the United States,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. “And frankly, the fingerprints of the climate crisis are all over what has happened in recent weeks.”

What does this mean for the risks people now face?

For those on the west coast of Florida, a state that has seen tremendous population growth over the past decade, Helene and Milton’s one-two punch will be disastrous and require months or even years of rebuilding and piecing together shattered lives.

In the longer term, the scale of the climate crisis, including more intense storms, will only increase as global temperatures continue to rise. This not only means more death and destruction, but portends a fundamental shift in where it is considered “safe” to live, as climate impacts hit supposedly favorable regions and insurers pull back from covering homes and businesses amid rising financial to lose.

The climate crisis has wormed its way onto the US presidential election agenda in the most spectacular and grim way.