Friday October 4, 2024

Morning report

We end the week on a warm note, but we are dealing with some dense areas of fog this morning. Although there will be more cloud cover during the day, the afternoon should be warm in the 70s. There may be some splashes this afternoon and evening.

The weekend will remain warm, but uncertainty about cloud cover could make viewing the potential Northern Lights difficult. There will be a few evenings trying to see them.

Next week brings us fall chill, while the tropical outlook still calls for a 40% chance of development and possible flooding in South Florida.

Visibility reports at 6am

Morning surface weather

The cluster of storms in the Midwest is moving along a cold front moving our way. From the south there will be cloud cover all day.

Live satellite and Lightning widget

I wanted to show you this view this morning to highlight the morning storms in the Midwest. That front is now more active than models suggested. It will fade, but there is a chance of showers tonight.

During the day a cloudburst will arise from the south.

Radar simulation from 8am to midnight

Inland it looks more active with some showers locally. I expect this to be even clearer later today and tonight.

Snapshot at 4 p.m

Afternoon temperatures

Aurora forecast

The two strong solar storms will continue to hit Earth this weekend. The Space Weather Prediction Agency has posted these predicted Planetary Kp Indexes.

In the Mid-Atlantic we have our best chance in the mountains above 7; at lower altitudes when above 8.

Note: We also need clear skies and away from city lights to see.

EXTENDED AND TROPICAL FORECAST BELOW

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 4th

Sunrise at 7:06 am

Sunset at 6:44 PM

Normal low in Baltimore: 51ºC

Record temperature of 31ºC in 1974 – the earliest freeze ever recorded in Baltimore

Normal High in Baltimore: 73ºC

Record temperature of 92 degrees from 1954

SATURDAY OCTOBER 5

Morning low

Morning fog possible again, then clear skies.

Afternoon high

A pleasant weekend day with sun and warmer temperatures.

Looking ahead

Sunday evening to Monday evening

A cold front may bring a few thunderstorms, then a fresh air mass will open us up to a much cooler air mass next week.

Jetstream: Sunday evening to Thursday evening

Snapshot Wednesday morning

There will be many areas of lows in the 2040s.

Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center

As of this morning, this region of the Gulf of Mexico once again has a 40% chance that ‘something’ will develop in the NEXT 7 DAYS! It will be challenged by strong upper level winds that will push the moisture into South Florida.

ECMWF model: Monday to Thursday

The pressure of moderate to heavy rainfall may eventually lead to organized low pressure on the Atlantic side of Florida…. After passing.

Heavy rain forecast

This looks like a flood for South Florida, with 6 to 12 inches of rain expected over the next week.

7 day forecast

A warm weekend to enjoy before the wave of autumn cold next week.

Share your thoughts and the best weather photos/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

PLAN A WEATHER BASED VOICE MONTAGE

Severe weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

Click to see more and submit an inquiry for your school.

SEE ALSO

Equinox is NOT equal daylight… Yet

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOON

Click to see the full report:

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers’ Choice Best of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Saturday, August 10

We raised over $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND counting

The annual event: 329 miles of hiking and biking in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp and Ocean City.

Every day we honor a child and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: funding free holistic programs. I have never taken a cent and never will. It’s all for our nonprofit to function.

Click here or on the image to donate:

REPETITION OF MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors and that other errors occur occasionally. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even for the computer glitches I may overlook. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it during my sophomore year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to earn the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had gotten this far without even knowing it, and that I shouldn’t let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell checker on my computer sometimes does it an injustice and makes things worse. I can also make mistakes when predicting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There has been no editor to check my work while writing and to have it ready to ship in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves that what you read is really mine… It’s part of my charm. #FITF