Working-class voters are moving to the right, according to a new analysis, which could hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning Pennsylvania.

According to a report from The Philadelphia InquirerPennsylvania’s working-class voters, once a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, have “drifted right” in recent years. Pennsylvania is a swing state with 19 Electoral College votes crucial to winning and securing victory in November.

The shift to the right has been especially pronounced in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s largest city, where President Joe Biden performed worse in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in 41 of the city’s 66 political divisions. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported.

The analysis found that in Philadelphia counties where 35 percent more residents live in poverty, the net shift is toward poverty the Republicans from 2016 to 2020 was 47 points. In contrast, in districts where fewer than 11 percent of residents live in poverty, voters supported Democrats by 25 points.

Meanwhile, in areas where 11 to 16 percent live in poverty, voters shifted 20 points toward Democrats, and in areas where 16 to 24 percent live in poverty, there was a 9-point shift toward Democrats.

The report also shows that Democrats lost the most ground among working-class Latinos.

Working-class Latinos voted for then-President Donald Trump by 75 points in all Philadelphia counties in 2020, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. In contrast, white working-class voters have moved 10 points toward Republicans, while black working-class voters have moved 12 points toward Republicans.

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.

The analysis is a worrying sign for Harris, who currently has a lead over Trump in Pennsylvania by just 0.8 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. And polls show Vice President Trump leading by just a few points among lowest-income voters.

A survey conducted by Patriot Polling between September 27 and 29 of 816 registered voters in Pennsylvania found Harris with a 5-point lead among voters with incomes of $0 to $50,000. Her lead rose to 7 points among voters with incomes of $50,000 to $100,000, while Trump led by 12 points among voters with salaries above $100,000. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

In another poll conducted by AtlasIntel between September 20 and 25, Harris led by 19 points among voters with incomes under $50,000 and by 5 points among voters with $50,000 to $100,000. Trump led by 17 points among voters with salaries over $100,000. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

With 19 Electoral College votes up for grabs, Pennsylvania has historically been a crucial state to win the presidential election.

Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the toss-up states to win this year, while Trump would need 51. If Harris were to win the 2nd District of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, she would have enough votes to secure victory.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Harris expected to win in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Nevertheless, the polls in the swing states are still close. Some recent polls from Pennsylvania show Trump leading by as much as three points, while others show Harris leading by as much as six points. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows that Harris’ lead in the state has decreased by 0.3 points since September 1, from 1.1 points to 0.8 points.