In Week 5 of 2024, our Indianapolis Colts travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Knowing the party was underway, I sat down with Gus Logue of Big Cat Country, SB Nation’s Jaguars blog. You can find him on Twitter @gus_logue. We exchanged questions and answers about both the Jaguars and Colts and what follows is what I learned about this week’s foe.

You can find my answers to his questions here.

Chris Shepherd: Given where we are now, I have to ask this question. Doug Pederson is in the hot seat, how hot is his seat? If the Colts do the impossible and win in Duval this weekend, do you think Pederson will be fired and if so, who will be the interim and who will call plays?

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Gus Logue: Multiple times this season, team owner Shad Khan has publicly declared the 2024 Jaguars the best team in the franchise’s 25-year history. Small losses and difficult opponents be damned – an 0-4 start was never acceptable. Pederson’s seat is definitely hot. Losing to division rival Colts in Jacksonville for the first time since 2014 should be enough for Khan to make up his mind, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the owner waited until the team returned from London or entered their bye before pulling the trigger .

I think the Jaguars have more fight in them than most people (understandably) think. But if Pederson can’t turn the ship, quarterbacks coach Mike McCoy is a good choice as interim head coach and player-caller. It’s hard to imagine Pederson leaving and offensive coordinator Press Taylor staying, and McCoy easily has the most experience of anyone else on the staff.

Chris: A lot of Colts fans loved Brian Thomas Jr. during the run-up to 2024 NFL draft. How has Thomas looked so far as a rookie, where has he excelled, what can he improve and would you be interested in trading him for Ad Mitchell?

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Guus: Thomas Jr. is the team’s most improved player, and at this rate he could be one of the team’s best players by Christmas. The 21-year-old wasn’t bad in rookie minicamp and the start of OTAs, but as he’s gained confidence, his skills have brightened. It started with a side issue in the first preseason game, after which Thomas Jr. lit the Bucs’ secondary on fire during joint practices – flash forward to today, and the 23rd overall pick is posting the highest 15 yards per reception and first downs per route of any pass catcher. This child is different. He can still improve his rapport with Trevor Lawrence and catch contact, but Thomas Jr. has strong hands, a silky smooth walk, a dawg-like competitiveness and of course, unparalleled long speed.

Unfortunately for Colts fans, a blowout game is coming sooner or later. You can keep AD Mitchell.

Chris: I’ve seen a lot of Trevor Lawrence in the past, but I haven’t seen any Jaguars tape this year. He is, based on my previous work, a good quarterback. So what’s going on now? Why is he only completing 53% of his passes? Did he work out with Carson Wentz this offseason or something?

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Guus: Lawrence’s terrible completion percentage can be partially explained by his average throwing depth (10.6 yards, third-highest in the NFL). The Jaguars are more aggressive in the field this year because Thomas Jr.’s speed, especially combined with Lawrence’s arm strength, can stretch a wide field. Jacksonville has had a successful deep passing game this year; the problem is that it is relied upon too much. Mid-range shots don’t fall and coaches rarely need a layup. In fact, Taylor said during his availability on Thursday that the coaching staff didn’t believe it was necessary to get Lawrence into a rhythm by taking layups and that their trust in him has not been compromised. But like Thomas Jr.’s two overthrown deep balls. and Christian Kirk from last week showed, Lawrence is indeed out of rhythm and needs to find a way to regain his own confidence. The problem there is that most of Lawrence’s distrust seems to lie in the system and/or the players around him, causing him to worry. Either way, Jacksonville goes as Lawrence goes. He has to find a way to get into the zone.

The Wentz dig got me because Lawrence, like Wentz in Philadelphia, has developed some bad habits. I created an 8 minute film overview on Twitter/X, which is available here for anyone interested.

Chris: If you were an offensive coordinator charged with creating a game plan to beat this Jacksonville defense, what would that plan look like? What matchups would you target? Are there any players you would avoid?

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Guus: I’d focus on Jacksonville’s linebacker unit (which is missing Foye Oluokun and possibly Devin Lloyd for this game) and the safety room (which has seen disappointing campaigns from Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson). While the cornerback group is without Tyson Campbell, Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown have come out as good as you could ask for. Try to stop Nico Collins.

Pass early downs over the middle – early downs mainly because Jacksonville’s run defense isn’t worth testing. They are in the top five in yards per carry and conversion rate allowed this season, and they are only getting better every week. That said, with Josh Hines-Allen in the concussion protocol, it may be worth trying weak runs this week.

Chris: The Colts are 2.5 point underdogs heading into a winless Jaguars team. Is that fair, how do you see this match going and what will be the final score?

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Guus: I’m a little surprised the line isn’t closer to a pick-em (in Indy’s favor). Even though the Jaguars are clearly better than their record and the Colts haven’t won in Jax since 2014, it’s funny to see a winless team being favored. However, I imagine the Colts’ injuries are a big factor, so it seems like a reasonable limit.

It wouldn’t shock me if the Colts won and Jaguars fans responded by changing their Twitter/X profile pictures to Pederson with a clown nose. However! Jacksonville’s roster is simply too good to give up and accept loss after loss. I see the Jaguars winning against the run on offense and against the run on defense. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby will have big days on the floor as Trey Sermon fails to place Anthony Richardson/Joe Flacco in a favorable third spot. Jaguars 27, Foals 17.

I can’t thank Gus enough for answering this week’s questions. Be sure to head over to Big Cat Country and @gus_logue on Twitter to check out his work.

I hope he’s wrong about the outcome of this case, but this is the Jacksonville curse we’re talking about, so he probably won’t be.

As always, go Colts.