Today we have a loaded Week 5 NFL slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s see where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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The Bills (3-1) just rolled by the Ravens 35-10 and failed to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Texans (3-1) just held off the Jaguars 24-20 but failed to score as 5.5-point home favorites. This line started with Buffalo listed as a 1-point road favorite. The crowd is all over the Bills and lays a short spread on a “get right” spot. However, despite 67% of spread bets backing Buffalo, we have seen this line swing to Texans -1. This indicates a sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line move on Houston, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. The Texans have a notable opposite value of “fade the trendy dog,” as they receive just 33% of spread bets in one of the earliest highest-stakes games of the day. Houston has a correlative betting value as a short favorite in a game with a high overall total (47.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. The Bills are dealing with several key injuries and will be without WR Khalil Shakir, DT Ed Oliver, DT Austin Johnson and S Taylor Rapp. Buffalo will also have to do without pass rusher Von Miller, who is suspended. Pros seem to be leaning towards a higher score game here, as the total has increased from 46.5 to 47.5. The over receives approximately 80% of the bets and dollars.

The Raiders (2-2) just defeated the Browns 20-16 to win outright as 3-point home dogs. Likewise, the Broncos (2-2) upset the Jets 10-9 and won outright as 8-point road dogs. This line started with Denver listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps put the points on Denver at Mile High, moving the Broncos from -1.5 to -2.5. Several stores are even moving to the key number of -3. Essentially all the moves and liability were on Denver, with no buybacks on Las Vegas. The Broncos receive 66% of the spread bets and 73% of the dollars spread, indicating public support, but also some heavy smart money in the form of a “Pro and Joe” betting split. The Broncos have a big advantage on defense, allowing just 13.8 PPG while the Raiders are giving up 24.3 PPG. Las Vegas is also dealing with some key injuries and will be without WR Davante Adams and RB Zamir White, while DE Maxx Crosby and two offensive linemen (Thayer Munford and Dylan Parham) are questionable. Those looking to follow the sharp Broncos movement, but also want to protect themselves around a key number, would be wise to consider Denver on the moneyline at -145. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 38 to 36. The under receives just 49% of the bets, but 61% of the dollars, a sharp, contrarian betting split. Outdoor division unders are 6-2 this season and 229-183 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. When the total is 39 or less (low total unders), the under is 5-2 and 37- this season 27 (58%) with a 10% ROI over the last two seasons.

The Cowboys (2-2) just held off the Giants 20-15, but failed to score as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Steelers (3-1) just fell to the Colts 27-24, losing outright as road favorites by 2.5 points. This line started with Dallas listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The crowd is all in on “America’s Team” at an attractive short chalk price with 60% of spread bets backing the Cowboys. Despite Dallas receiving nearly two-thirds of the spread bets, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Steelers -2.5. Several outlets now list Steelers at -2.5 (-115) or have officially moved up to -3. Essentially, all the movement and liability lies with Pittsburgh, which incorporates sharp “dog to favorite” line moves. The Steelers offer notable contrarian value, as they receive only 40% of the spread bets in a nationally televised primetime Sunday Night Football game. Mike Tomlin is 56-41 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI on a loss as coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh has a big advantage defensively, allowing just 13.3 PPG (2nd), while Dallas has given up 26 PPG (27th). The Steelers also have value as out-of-conference favorites, with the lack of exposure benefiting the team expected to win. Those who want to follow the sharp Steelers move, but also protect themselves from tight play around the key number 3, can opt to play Pittsburgh on the moneyline at -145. The Cowboys are expected to be without two of their top defensemen, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, due to injury. The total started at 42.5 and rose to 44. We are now seeing some buybacks below 44, with some stores dropping back to 43.5. The under receives only 51% of the bets, but 70% of the dollars, a sharp betting split of “low bets, higher dollars.” Primetime unders are 168-115 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. Shawn Hochuli, the lead referee, is historically 57% under unders.