UFC307 takes place this Saturday at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, with two title fights and 10 other major matchups. In the main event, Alex Pereira puts his light heavyweight title on the line Khalil Rountree Jr., and in the co-main event, women’s bantamweight champion Rachel Pennington makes the first defense of her belt against former champion Julianna Peña. Let’s take a look at which fights are worth betting on this weekend.

All opportunities are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

Straight bets

Julianna Peña (+140)

Let’s start with the cons of this bet: Peña hasn’t fought in two years, she hasn’t won a fight in almost three years, and she doesn’t have a single win over fighters currently competing in the UFC. That’s not great!

However, Peña has two very important things working in her favor. First of all, she is a good wrestler and grappler. Pennington is an all-rounder, but historically one of the most successful strategies against her has been scoring takedowns, as Pennington is not a threat from her side.

Second, Peña is harder than advanced algebra and has absolutely zero in her. If something doesn’t work, she keeps trying until it does. That kind of relentless effort makes her a more effective striker than she should be, and should play into her hands in the championship rounds of this fight.

Ultimately, this is a coin battle, as Pennington is good, but not incredible, so there is value in Peña.

Jose Aldo (+118)

Jose Aldo is one of the six greatest fighters of all time. Mario Bautista is a very good fighter, but the ocean of distance between “very good” and “Pantheon level” is enormous. Even at his old age, Aldo is still a master and creates the fight he wants. In fact, he is one of my favorite fighters of all time and I will always back him to win.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop betting

Kayla Harrison via KO/TKO or submission (+105)

Harrison faces Ketlen Vieira on the main card in a matchup that is more or less a setup fight to get Harrison to the bantamweight title.

Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judoka and a physical force of nature. If Vieira could keep this fight going, she would have a chance. But she simply won’t be able to do that against Harrison, which means the question is whether or not Harrison can finish. Vieira has proven to be very durable in her career, but this version of Harrison is a different beast and I think she gets the statement finish.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Parlays

There’s nothing I love more than a gimmick parlay and there are two excellent opportunities this week. The first is the Pennington Parlay, which I’m passing on because of my support of Peña this week. The second is the Glory Parlay.

Pereira is a famous two-division Glory Kickboxing champion, where he had a (less) famous rivalry with Cesar Almeida. Now the two men are in the UFC, training together under Glover Teixeira, and are heavy favorites at UFC 307.

Alex Pereira (-506)

As for the actual fight, I wrote a big breakdown on SB Nation so you should check that out, but the short version is that Pereira is most likely going to beat anyone who willingly enters a kickboxing match with him, which is what Rountree will do.

Cesar Almeida (-400)

And in the prelims, that same dynamic takes place as Almeida takes on Ihor Potieria, the man who famously ended Shogun Rua’s MMA career. This is basically an off-brand version of the main event, and the outcome should be expected the same way.

Parlay these two bets together for odds of -212

Wrapping up

UFC Paris was a mixed bag. We scored a big underdog by calling Renato Moicano’s win, but lost everything else, which is clearly not ideal. Let’s hope we do better this weekend,

Until next week, enjoy the battles, good luck and gamble responsibly!

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