The TCU Horned Frogs (3-2, 1-1) continue their Big 12 slate Friday night against the Houston Cougars (1-4, 0-2). TCU is a -16.5 favorite over Houston and sportsbooks are listing the game at a 51.5-point over/under as of Thursday morning.

Adjusted for the power (think of it as a sportsbook load), TCU has an implied win probability of 85.2%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 3-2 against the spread, covering last week’s +2 mark with a 38-27 win over Kansas. The over is also 4-1, with 65 points being enough to cover a final score of 58.5 points.

Houston is off to a disastrous start. Not only are the Cougars 1-4 overall – with their only win coming over Rice (ranked 119th in the FBS at power) – but they have also failed to score a single point in two Big 12 league games. Against FBS competition and UNLV, Houston has combined for 19 total points.

In a transition year under Andy Avalos, TCU hasn’t gotten things going defensively. The Horned Frogs rank 126th in third- and fourth-down success percentage allowed (which, by the third- and fourth-down percentage definition, means the opposing offense converted). Its defensive success rate (40% from yardage on first down, 60% on second, and 100% on third/fourth down) ranks 100th. The run is particularly worrying.

Houston’s only saving grace on offense is explosive play. Few and far between, four of Houston’s five offensive touchdowns came from more than 35 yards. The only outlier was a one-yard TD rush that came off an interception returned to the… one-yard line. Long runs simply weren’t for the Cougars this season.

But because the threat of explosive play is always present, I avoid laying the points on TCU. Especially if this game goes haywire, I don’t want a long score to be the bad beat of the night.

Leading the market in teams is a profitable place to be. Last week we noticed that Kansas wasn’t as good as the opening lines suggested. As a result, we won the bet.

This week I’m leading the market on Houston’s defense. Though the offense is rotten (to be kind about it), Houston’s defense under coordinator Shiel Wood was quite good. The Cougars held Iowa State to 56% of scoring average (20 points vs. 36-point average), UNLV to 74% of average (27 vs. 36.3), and Oklahoma to 56% of average (16 vs. 36, 3). 28.6). The only team to score above its season average was Cincinnati, which scored 34 points (compared to 32.3 average) and once on a short field.

Houston limits explosive play through the air. I expect TCU to take a more conservative approach – especially since Houston isn’t much of a scoring threat – and play an offense more in line with what the NFL looks like this year.

The result is more play, less explosives and more free time. Houston can provide some resistance defensively, especially along the defensive line.

2024 record: 3-3

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