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    Tropical storm possible, heavy rain on the way

    Vaseline Posted on

    Ryan Truchelut
    | WeatherTiger

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    The Waffle Houses haven’t even all reopened yet, but I’m sorry to tell you that the eastern Gulf Coast is dealing with yet another tropical threat this week.

    But just as many storm-damaged Waffle Houses serve a limited menu, this round of potential activities in the Gulf will also be more limited in scope, impact and areas affected than the horrific Helene.

    Heavy rain on the Florida Peninsula starting this weekend is the biggest danger, but coastal flooding and wind risks for Central and South Florida are unfortunately also increasing.

    What to expect and what not to expect from the approaching Gulf storm

    Let’s be clear about what this threat will NOT be before we delve into what it could be.

    First, this will not cause rain in the southern Appalachians or northern Georgia. Fortunately, these decimated areas will remain much drier than normal for the next week.

    Second, the Gulf environment is not conducive to the formation of another major hurricane. Third, the driving winds blowing from west to east should hold back anything developing in the Gulf south of the ruptured Big Bend and the depleted Panhandle.

    Additionally, there is no danger of landfall from a formidable pair of storms in the central Atlantic, Kirk and Leslie. Hurricane Kirk is the third Category 4 or higher storm in 2024, and the first to cause no serious harm to people.

    Kirk (and to a lesser extent Leslie) will be creating a major surf and rip current hazard on the beaches of the Atlantic Ocean over the next week, but otherwise it’s fun to watch the beaches from a distance as they reach the sea over 1,000 miles from land in bending. Here’s to you, Kirk and Leslie, you’re the real genius storms of today.

    National Hurricane Center name or no name, the storm will bring heavy rain to Florida

    Unfortunately, not all tropical weather will follow this gallant example this week.

    I have been seeing a new Central American Gyre (CAG) forming over the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean since last weekend, which continues to persist as a broad disturbance without directional convection.

    In recent days, a concentrated amount of rotation left over from Tropical Depression 11-E in the eastern Pacific Ocean has moved through southern Mexico and entered the southwestern Gulf relatively intact, where storms have formed in the Bay of Campeche.

    This weekend, this energy shot could spook the diffuse disturbance and do what was less likely a few days ago: transition into a more organized, more tropical system on Monday or Tuesday, even if it is embedded in a complex, not purely tropical environment. .

    If you’ve been following my predictions, I discussed how the several fronts spreading across the Gulf over the next week mean the system’s structure could be broader than that of a typical tropical storm or hurricane, which is why it was . It is not clear whether the resulting system would qualify for an NHC name.

    The fact that the Pacific disturbance has entered the mix and convection is consolidating on the southwestern side of the CAG tilts the odds toward tropical storm development, although interaction with those nearby fronts will cause widespread rain effects for Florida, regardless of whether the disruption is significant. or is not a named storm.

    Possibility of a hurricane strike on the Florida Peninsula is possible as the Panhandle gets a taste of fall

    The Gulf is generally a hostile place for tropical activity this week, especially the northern half where the subtropical jet stream will blow from west to east as a deep trough of low pressure digs into the East Coast.

    After a few rain chances through Monday, the Panhandle will cool on the other side of a protective cool front on Tuesday. As upper level steering winds direct low-level winds east-northeast across the southern Gulf, vertical wind shear is expected to increase as it gains some latitude and approaches west-central or southwestern Florida by mid-week.

    Given the front to the north, the storm system’s most likely path is an east-northeastward track crossing the Florida coast, somewhere between just north of the Tampa Bay region and the Keys, although that’s a stretch at this stage. is a very uncertain prediction.

    If the disruption occurs quickly through Monday while conditions remain favorable over the southern Gulf, hurricane intensity for a midweek landfall is on the table.

    However, given the expected increase in shear from Tuesday, it is also entirely plausible that a less intense, broader and weaker tropical storm, hybrid low or convective frontal system could be the end result here. There are still many possibilities, so check back in a few days for a better, or at least less uncertain, answer.

    Be prepared for excessive rainfall in Florida, especially along and south of I-4

    However, the excessive rainfall that will be the most widespread impact of this storm system is a high confidence forecast for the different scenarios. Heavy rain will move eastward from the Gulf into the South and Central Florida peninsula beginning Sunday, especially along and south of I-4.

    In Big Bend and north-central Florida, rainfall will be limited and end Tuesday. With intermittent heavy rain continuing through at least midweek in South and Central Florida, accumulations there could exceed 5” overall and top 10 locally for seven days, and residents should be alert to flash flood risks.

    We’ll wait and see how things develop before discussing potential wind or wave issues, except to note that the threat of coastal flooding is greater in the areas more likely to be south of the track and subject to currents country is.

    Still, this potential should be monitored from across the Tampa Bay area and the South, especially as the region is still reeling from the aftermath of one of the most severe and widespread surge events ever to hit the Peninsula’s Gulf Coast are registered.

    Little precedent for this type of storm becoming a hurricane, but this season has defied expectations

    One final note: There is little precedent for hurricanes hitting Florida’s Gulf Coast from an east-northeast approach in October, indicating the enormous influence of mid-latitude weather.

    Most of Florida’s late-season threats that developed in the southern Gulf took the form of tropical storms or non-tropical lows. However, there are more things in heaven and earth than climatology dreams of, and as we have learned again in recent weeks, the events of our weather past do not limit the threats of the future.

    History also shows that late-season hurricane risks in Florida remain high through late October and shift southward over time. So South and Central Florida will have to pay close attention this coming week as hurricane season refuses to give us what we all want and let’s just eat our waffles in peace.

    I’ll be back on Monday with an update. Until then, keep looking at the sky.

    Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee-based company that provides forensic meteorology witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit weretiger.com for more information. Email Ryan Truchelut at [email protected].

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