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    • Hurricane forecasters are monitoring the rain system as it heads toward Florida
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    Hurricane forecasters are monitoring the rain system as it heads toward Florida

    Vaseline Posted on

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    A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico promises to bring heavy, possibly flooding rain to Florida starting Sunday and continuing through much of next week.

    Forecasters are still unsure whether the system will become a so-called tropical storm, or even possibly a low-end hurricane. But regardless of tropical (or subtropical) development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast to occur over parts of the Florida peninsula late this weekend and into next week, the National Hurricane Center said.

    “While the exact track and intensity of the phenomenon unfolding in the wave have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist. “At this point, the intensity will range from an extended tropical rainstorm to perhaps an attack of a more compact, full-fledged hurricane.”

    Forecasters are currently mainly concerned about the rain.

    Some locations could see several inches to a foot or more of rain, with most of the rainfall likely from Interstate 4 south to the Keys, according to AccuWeather. Up to 70 centimeters of rain could fall in some isolated locations, AccuWeather predicts. As much as 10 to 18 inches of rain is forecast in many places, the National Weather Service said.

    According to the National Weather Service’s forecast office in Miami, with these rain-related threats, “it is important to emphasize that a less organized system (in terms of central pressure or maximum winds) does not necessarily imply smaller impacts,” as the messier systems can still have quite significant consequences.

    Hurricane possible, AccuWeather says

    “Should development occur in the southwest Gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is time and potential for the area to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane,” AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva said.

    The hurricane center is less optimistic about the storm, saying only that “a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid next week,” the center said in a Friday morning forecast.

    Other forecasters aren’t calling for a hurricane either: According to meteorologist Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami, “several models now show a weak low-pressure center over South or Central Florida, possibly a low-level tropical storm, Tuesday through Wednesday.”

    If it becomes a named storm, the next name on the list will be Milton.

    Rain, not wind, is the main threat

    According to McNoldy, the general consensus is that the system will drift east toward the Florida peninsula, with rainfall beginning on Sunday and lasting for days. “It could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm by then, but wind won’t be the main threat from this; it will be rain,” he said.

    Heavy rain is likely in central and southern Florida between Sunday and Tuesday, meteorologist Ryan Truchelut said.

    Kirk and Leslie continue to spin in the Atlantic Ocean

    In the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie continue to spin far from land. Large waves from Kirk could bring life-threatening surf and currents to the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, the hurricane center said.

    Although it is forecast to weaken early next week, Kirk or its remnants will likely be a long-lived system that will generally affect much of western Europe by the middle of next week, according to AccuWeather.

    Tropical Storm Leslie is expected to reach hurricane strength on Saturday, but will no longer pose a threat to land areas as of Friday morning, the hurricane center said.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA Today Network-Florida

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