Ahead of these two eruptions, a geomagnetic storm watch has been issued from Friday through Sunday evening. “At this level, under the best of conditions, it could be possible for residents of northern New England to glimpse the aurora along the northern horizon, well beyond the city lights and under clear skies,” says Shawn Dahl , a meteorologist with the SWPC.

Best times and places to view

Even though the sun sets earlier, the best time to catch a glimpse of the lights is between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., and this weekend it looks to be less cloudy on Saturday and Sunday nights.

Right now, forecasters say the best places to watch Friday night are in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and possibly around Route 2 in Massachusetts. On Saturday, the viewing line extends further south to include much of Massachusetts.

Weather forecast

It could be difficult to see the aurora Friday evening as increasing cloud cover is expected later tonight ahead of the arrival of a cold front with scattered showers. If you give it a chance, temperatures should be in the mid-50s around midnight. The showers should end late morning on Saturday, making Saturday and Sunday evenings the better choice to see the glittering display.

Saturday night should provide a great chance to catch the lights with clear skies as high pressure settles in – albeit colder with temperatures around midnight likely in the upper 40s in Northern New England and low 50s in Mass.

Another front will pass through New England late Sunday, so expect more clouds to fill the sky, ruining New Englanders’ chances of catching the lights.

Viewing tips

If you can’t see anything, don’t worry. Scientists say the Northern Lights are not always visible to the naked eye. But your cell phone is a great addition and can capture the full beauty of the flickering ribbons in the sky with just a few clicks.

“Point it at the sky and take a photo. You might be surprised when you look at your phone later and see some beautiful photos,” said Brent Gordon, a scientist at the SWPC.

That’s because cell phones are much more attuned to visible wavelengths, allowing them to capture light “much better than our eyes,” he explained.

“We’ve seen cell phone photos from as far away as South Texas, so it’s possible.”

Patience is the key

And even with the increased chances for activity in ideal weather conditions, sometimes the Northern Lights just don’t come to dance or you just need some patience. The Space Weather Prediction Center analyzes a multitude of variables when it comes to demonstrating potential for Northern Lights activity.

“Trying to figure out whether a CME will actually hit Earth, graze us, or miss us completely is extremely difficult. The sun is 150 million kilometers away and it is not easy to understand the impact on Earth,” Dahl added.

Earlier this year, the Northern Lights were visible in Cape Cod, central Massachusetts and parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island, despite the viewing line being further north at the time.

When the SWPC issues a geomagnetic storm watch, it means they don’t know the orientation of the CME yet. Only when the CME is about 1 million miles from Earth will they get a clearer picture of what to expect. At that point, forecasters can issue a geomagnetic warning, depending on the magnetic energy, strength and direction at that point.

“Even though a G3 watch can verify and confirm this, it doesn’t mean the CME was that intense when it passed over Earth during the first viewing window,” Dahl said.

This week’s strong eruptions

A strong class

A second, more powerful solar flare — the strongest observed since 2017 — was observed Thursday, and the SWPC subsequently issued G3/strong geomagnetic storm watches for Friday through Sunday “due to a few coronal mass ejections expected to arrive.”

Coronal mass ejections are large outbursts of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona that cause intense geomagnetic storms when the CMEs reach Earth, projecting the auroras further south than normal.

“Flames of this size are generally uncommon,” said Dr. Ryan French, solar astrophysicist at the National Science Foundation’s National Solar ObservatoryCQ in Boulder, Colorado, on the X9 flare.

Solar flares are rated like earthquakes. The smallest are of class B, followed by C, M and X, the largest. Just like on the Richter scale, each letter represents a tenfold increase in energy production. Within each letter class there is also a finer scale from 1 to 9, meaning an X9 flare is the strongest possible.

Why all the strong aurora activity?

“We are in the throes of the solar maximum of solar cycle 25,” Dahl said. “Solar cycles are a period of on average eleven years in which the sun goes from a “minimum of activity to a maximum and back to a minimum again.”

This fluctuation occurs because the sun reverses its magnetic poles every eleven years due to the constant magnetic unrest within. We will essentially only know in retrospect when the peak of activity will be determined, but increased activity over the past six months has given scientists confidence that we are close.

“2024 has proven to be a very active year for aurora viewing. The current thinking is that we can anticipate space weather storms for the rest of this year and possibly into 2025,” says Dahl.

Aside from the beautiful pinks, greens and oranges, geomagnetic storms can often disrupt technological infrastructure as they pass, affecting signals for minutes to hours. This weekend’s storms are not expected to disrupt broadcasts in the US.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.