A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could bring lots of rain to the Florida peninsula, forecasters say.

The National Hurricane Center on Friday raised the chance of development to moderate, or 40 percent, and said a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form next week if it remains separated from a frontal boundary in the area.

The hurricane center also tracked powerful Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie far out in the Atlantic Ocean.

None of these storms are expected to directly impact the United States, but waves generated by Kirk could cause rough seas, coastal flooding and deadly currents along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

GULF OF MEXICO

The Gulf system is of most concern as rescue and cleanup efforts continue in the Southeast following the devastating Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in Florida on September 26.

The new system may not become a hurricane, but forecasters say it could dump more rain across the Florida peninsula. The hurricane center said it is expected to move east or northeast into the Gulf this weekend.

A frontal boundary is expected to be draped over part of the Gulf during that time, and the disturbance could become entangled with it. If that happens, it’s not very likely to turn into depression.

However, if it stays away from the front, it could have a chance to develop a little more.

Here is the forecast for rainfall over the next seven days:

It is not expected to pose a threat to the Alabama coast and should remain south of the state.

ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

The Hurricane Center also continued to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic Ocean. On Friday morning, Kirk was 1,500 kilometers east-northeast of the Leeward Islands and moving northwest at 20 km/h.

Kirk had winds of 140 miles per hour, making it a Category 4 hurricane. Kirk’s peak winds were 140 miles per hour. The hurricane center expects Kirk to begin weakening Saturday.

Southeast of Kirk, a strengthening Tropical Storm Leslie, which could also become a hurricane, but poses no threat to land.

As of Friday morning, Leslie was 1,775 miles west-southwest of the southernmost island of Cabo Verde and was tracking west-northwest.

Leslie had winds of 65 mph, the hurricane center said, and could become a hurricane tonight or Saturday.

Leslie could remain a hurricane at least until Wednesday and peak at Category 2 intensity, the hurricane center said.

There have been seven hurricanes so far this season, out of a total of twelve named storms.

The last day of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is November 30.