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Florida must prepare for heavy rain and flooding

Vaseline October 4, 2024

Heavy rain for Florida is bad news for areas affected by Hurricane Helene’s rain and storm surge

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of a low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid next week, depending on environmental conditions.

Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall to much of the Florida peninsula late this weekend and into next week, which is especially bad news for areas still recovering from the damage – including flooding and storm surge – left behind by Hurricane Helene.

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Whether it becomes a named storm or not, the system will bring heavy rainfall to the Florida peninsula starting around Sunday and continuing into next week, said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida-based meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

Several areas in Florida are still recovering from a blow from Category 4 Hurricane Helene on September 26. Hurricane Helene made landfall east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, 10 miles (16 kilometers) west-southwest of Perry, on September 26 at 11:10 PM.

With winds of up to 140 miles per hour, the Category 4 storm is among the most powerful to hit the United States, according to NOAA.

Where lies the potential tropical threat to Florida?

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and then some gradual development is possible as the low pressure area slowly moves eastward or northeastward.

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A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid next week if the low remains separated from a frontal boundary expected to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rainfall may occur over parts of Mexico in the coming days and over parts of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend and into next week.

Probability of formation during 48 hours: low, almost 0 percent.
Formation chance during 7 days: average, 40 percent.

Is a hurricane coming to Florida?

A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid next week, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

“While the exact track and intensity of the phenomenon unfolding in the wave have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s Chief On-Air Meteorologist. “At this point, the intensity will range from an extended tropical rainstorm to perhaps an attack of a more compact, full-fledged hurricane.”

“Two major energy sources are likely to combine to drive development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “One piece is moving westward from the Caribbean, and the other piece is associated with a tropical depression near Mexico in the eastern Pacific Ocean.”

“Should development occur in the southwest Gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is time and potential for the area to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane,” DaSilva said.

“While something is likely to form over the Gulf this weekend, what develops likely won’t be a tight, well-organized hurricane, and technically may not even be a tropical storm or depression,” Truchelut said Wednesday.

When could Florida feel the effects of the Gulf of Mexico system?

There are two different AccuWeather scenarios:

Scenario 1: The system remains disorganized, making a hurricane unlikely, but heavy rain can be expected Monday evening and Tuesday.
Scenario 2: The system organizes, making a hurricane possible. Damaging winds, flooding and storm surge possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

A large area of rainfall is likely to spread to the east and northeast of the broad center of the low, Truchelut said. This rainfall will likely reach the immediate northern Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula late this weekend.

Impact: Florida could see anywhere from 3 to 30 inches of rain

Even if the Gulf System isn’t named, Floridians should prepare for a lot of rain.

“Next week, a series of heavy rain showers will flood Florida, especially the central and southern parts of the peninsula,” AccuWeather said. “The rain will likely fall over a period of several days unless a more condensed hurricane forms. In this case, the heaviest rain may be concentrated over one day, but it can be intense.

“The risk of flooding will increase later this weekend and could persist until the middle of next week, depending on the intensity and forward speed of the phenomenon. Some locations could see several inches to a foot or more of rain, with the heaviest rainfall likely from Interstate 4 south of the Keys. The AccuWeather Local StormMax rainfall is 30 inches for this setup,” AccuWeather said.

If the system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, storm surges and damaging winds can also be expected.

“The label, or lack thereof, does not mean there will not be impacts: tropical or not, final precipitation accumulations will likely be heavy in Central and South Florida,” Truchelut said.

South and Central Florida will likely see 3 inches or more of rain between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said, with the potential for widespread higher totals if the storm continues through midweek or beyond.

The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network forecast rainfall on:

1 and 3 inches Thursday evening through Saturday evening in South Florida and 2 and 4 inches over the immediate southwest coast of Florida.
Up to 5 inches in South and Southwest Florida between Sunday and Tuesday evening.
1-3 inches for Central Florida and the southern edge of North Florida between Sunday and Tuesday, and another 3 to 5 inches between Tuesday and Thursday.
“We are forecasting between 10 and 20 centimeters of rain, with some areas seeing 30 centimeters over the next seven days.”

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