The 2024 NFL season was full of surprises, perhaps none bigger than Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers starting 3-1.

Tampa Bay’s passing attack played a big role in its success as the game started slowly.

With the Buccaneers visiting Atlanta on Thursday night, there’s a chance the Falcons will be pressured to put points on the board, matching Tampa Bay point for point.

We’ll revisit that angle as part of our bet365 three-leg same-game parlay.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds

Buccaneers vs. Falcons in the same game

• Leg 1: Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
• Leg 2: Kirk Cousins ​​over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
• Leg 3: Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)

As a first-half underdog, Mayfield has been one of the most underrated betting corners in recent seasons. According to Action Network, the quarterback is 2-0 against the spread (ATS) at this spot this season and 14-6 over the past three seasons.

The former No. 1 overall pick is coming off a career-high 28 touchdown passes in 2023, prompting Tampa Bay to reward him with a three-year, $100 million deal.

Mayfield’s stellar performance might even convince coach Todd Bowles, who has traditionally been very conservative, to be more offensive. Bowles may not have much of a choice, however, as his rushing attack ranks in the bottom half of the league with a 38.1% success rate, while his team’s pass-play percentage ranks 10th at 60.5%.

That aggressiveness should serve them well against an Atlanta defense that ranks in the bottom half against passing in the FTN Fantasy’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Kirk Cousins ​​​​Over 226.5 passing yards (-110)

With the Buccaneers pressing the Falcons to keep pace offensively, it makes sense to target Falcons QB Kirk Cousins ​​to exceed his passing gag of 226.5 yards.

The Falcons will likely have trouble controlling the ball on Thursday with 6-foot-4, 347-pound nose tackle Vita Vea in the middle of the Buccaneers’ line.

Atlanta is only slightly better than Tampa Bay in success rate (38.6%), and its 58.14% success rate is 14th in the league.

Cousins ​​has exceeded this projection in five of his previous six home games and in his last three games. If you like the Buccaneers in this matchup, there is a clear path to Cousins ​​going over his passing prop.

Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

This is a standard contrarian play, as the Falcons tight end didn’t record a single reception last week for the first time in his NFL career.

Pitts doesn’t need to look at the box score to know he ended the game without a catch, and he’ll likely be hanging around his quarterback’s locker looking for an explanation.

Betting on the NFL?

He has recorded at least 31 receiving yards in five of his last eight games after finishing with 15 or fewer. When you couple that with opposing tight ends averaging 33.5 receiving yards against the Bucs, there’s just enough to justify a move on Pitts going over this prop.

Best bet: Same game parlay (+425, bet365)

• Leg 1: Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
• Leg 2: Kirk Cousins ​​over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
• Leg 3: Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

Why trust New York Post betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has cashed two 15-leg teasers in his gambling career, as well as a 12-leg parlay featuring eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he carefully chose the finalists of the 2024 European Championships and the Copa America.