Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with an NFC South matchup between the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 PM ET on Prime Video).

Both teams are coming off wins, with the Buccaneers putting away the Eagles and the Falcons nipping the Saints on a 58-yard field goal with 2 seconds left.

The Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites for Thursday’s matchup (O/U 42.5), but the line has since dropped to -1.5. The Buccaneers (+185 to win the NFC South) and Falcons (+160) split the series last season, with each team winning along the way.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Falcons -1.5
Money line: Falcons (-125), Corsairs (+105)
Top/Bottom: 43.5

Distribution over the first half: Falcons -0.5 (+102), Corsairs +0.5 (-125)
Total points for Buccaneers: 20.5 (over -120/under -110)
Falcons total points: 21.5 (over -120/under -110)

The props

Pass

Kirk Cousins’ total passing yards: 224.5 (over -125/under -105)
Total Passing TDs for Cousins: 1.5 (over +105/under -135)
Baker Mayfield total passing yards: 249.5 (over +105/under -135)
Mayfield total passing TDs: 1.5 (more than -120/less than -110)

Rush

Bijan Robinson total rushing yards: 69.5 (over +110/under -140)
Bucky Irving total rushing yards: 44.5 (over +100/under -130)
Rachaad White total rushing yards: 34.5 (over +100/under -130)
Tyler Allgeier total rushing yards: 34.5 (over +105/under -135)

Received

Mike Evans total receiving yards: 59.5 (over -130/under +100)
Chris Godwin total receiving yards: 69.5 (over -110/under -120)
Drake London total receiving yards: 69.5 (over +110/under -140)
Darnell Mooney total receiving yards: 44.5 (over -125/under -105)
Kyle Pitts total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -125/under -105)
Cade Otton total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -110/under -120)
Robinson total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -110/under -130)
White total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -120/under -110)

Anita Marks’ choices

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Boekaniers-Falcons UNDER 43.5 (-105)

As far as offense goes, the season has gotten off to a slow start. Prime-time unders are 8-7 so far this season 78-49-1 over the past three seasons. The Buccaneers are dealing with a plethora of injuries and have to hit the road, where they are 6-4 since the start of last year. Both defenses are solid. Expect a snoozer on Thursday evening.

Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+140)

There’s a lot of buzz surrounding the Buccaneers’ backfield and Irving’s expanded role. Rachaad White is still better than Irving, but on Sunday against the Eagles the gap closed to 45, but for White to 32 ahead of Irving. Irving ran the ball 10 times (the same number of carries as White) for 49 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, he acted all five of Tampa’s red zone rushing attempts in the game. He could play an even bigger role against the Falcons on Thursday night.

Chris Godwin OVER 69.5 yards (-110), Cade Otton OVER 29.5 yards (-120)

I expect Godwin and Oton to be Baker Mayfield’s top targets, as Tampa’s offense is an infirmary. Wideouts Mike Evans (knee/calf), Trey Palmer (concussion) and Jalen McMillan (ankle) are all dealing with injuries, and Sterling Shepard was just scratched from the practice squad. During a short work week, take the guys who are healthy to the next level. The Falcons defense is weak against the slot, where both Godwin and Oton run the majority of their routes.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info

• The Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS on the road (four straight covers) since the start of last season. The Falcons are 0-3 ATS at home this season.

• The Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS as underdogs (8-1 ATS as road underdogs) over the past two seasons and have played five straight games as the ‘dogs’. The Falcons are 3-10 ATS as favorites since the start of last season.

• Twelve of the last sixteen meetings between these teams have gone over the total.

• Thirteen consecutive Falcons primetime games have fallen under the total, dating back to 2017.

• Kirk Cousins ​​is 8-3 ATS in prime-time games since 2020. Baker Mayfield is 3-8 ATS in his last 11 prime-time games. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last twelve primetime games.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, no player in the NFL has thrown more passing TDs against the blitz than Cousins ​​(68). The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 37% of the time this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

• Prime-time unders are 78-49-1 over the past three seasons (8-7 this season).

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