The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet in the American League Division Series after KC travels to Baltimore and eliminates the Orioles in the wild-card round. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in New York, with the winner advancing to face the Cleveland Guardians or Detroit Tigers in the ALCS.

Play times

Game 1: Royals at Yankees, Saturday, October 5, 6:38 PM ET, TBS/Max

Game 2: Royals at Yankees, Monday, October 7, 7:38 PM ET, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 3: Yankees at Royals, Wednesday, Oct. 9, time TBA, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 4: Yankees at Royals, Thursday, Oct. 10, time TBA, TBS/truTV/Max (if necessary)

Game 5: Royals at Yankees, Saturday, October 12, time TBA, TBS/Max (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

This is where time off should help, at least theoretically. Because if you compare the Yankees’ rotation one-by-one to the Royals’ rotation, it might be fair to call them well-matched. But one thing the schedule hides is that this matchup could favor the Yankees, despite the season-long ERA numbers.

First, ERA is not predictive. It’s one of the worst statistics to use when you’re looking forward to the next game instead of describing what happened, especially when you’re dealing with parks – Yankee Stadium and Kauffman Stadium – that are so different in how friendly they are are for home. runs. Better is strikeout minus walking speed. There, the Yankees and Royals rotations are separated by decimals.

Then there’s the fact that the backside of these rotations doesn’t matter. The Yankees got nearly 200 innings of a 4.68 ERA from starters who might not make the roster for this series. The Royals full-year rotation numbers also include some guys who might not pitch in the ALDS, they threw fewer innings (168) and their ERA was better (4.27), which skews comparisons to the entire staff.

Finally, the Yankees can set their rotation however they want. Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Carlos Rodón in Game 2. The Royals will likely want to avoid having the resurgent Cole Ragans — who is already more than 50 innings past his career high and left his last start with cramps — on a short rest. Seth Lugo pitched in Game 2 of the wild-card win over the Baltimore Orioles and is also more than 50 innings past his past maximum. Therefore, the Royals will likely start this series with a combo of Brady Singer and Michael Wacha, who have not pitched this postseason, but the former has never thrown that many innings in a season and the latter only once before, nine years ago.

Something similar is happening in the bullpen, where the narrative could be that the Yankees’ bullpen is imploding and terrible and the Royals are akin to their “pens from their championship runs.” That’s just not supported by underlying metrics, where the Yankees have been far superior, or by taking the projections of the top four guys in each pen, where the Yankees have a park-neutral projected ERA of 3.20 (second best among postseason teams) and the Royals have a rating of 4.1 (worst in the playoffs). Lucas Erceg is a great story, but the Royals need more than just him.

People might tell you that the Royals have the pitching advantage in this series. They don’t read The Athletics. – Eno Sarris

Why the Yankees will win

The Yankees will have perhaps the two best players on the field: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig of this generation. (That’s no disrespect to Bobby Witt Jr., who will finish second to Judge in the AL MVP race and can take over any game with his athleticism.) Judge and Soto — hitting back to back — will be a nightmare for the Royals, and they’ll be bolstered by menacing bats: Gleyber Torres, who has been excellent since taking over the top spot (.824 OPS in 40 games); Austin Wells, a candidate for Rookie of the Year; and Giancarlo Stanton, who loves the postseason (11 home runs in 27 playoff games).

That’s without mentioning that they will start last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Cole had a bumpy regular season, but finished with a 2.25 ERA over his last 10 starts. Rodón, their Game 2 starter, has allowed just two runs in two starts (13 innings) against Kansas City this season. And their Game 3 starting pitching options – Luis Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) and Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) – are also dangerous. Furthermore, the Yankees’ bullpen has been much better since Luke Weaver became de facto closer.

Will they miss Anthony Rizzo’s steady glove at first base? Certainly. Are they in left field between Jasson Domínguez and Alex Verdugo? No. But the Yankees are about as healthy as they have been all year, winning the season series against the Royals 5-2, and they’ll have the Bronx and home field advantage on their side. Don’t underestimate the power of the Yankee Stadium crowd to put pressure on their enemies. — Brendan Kuty

Why the Royals will win

Of all clubs, the Royals just know how to handle this postseason stuff.

Since 1985, the Royals are 9-1 in the past 10 postseason series and 32-15 in playoff games overall. That includes World Series championships in 1985 and 2015, but not the last time they faced the Yankees in October: the 1980 ALCS. The Royals won that five-game series in three games.

Of course, the age-old playoff history of the Royals and Yankees from the late 1970s and early 1980s will have no bearing on this series. But Kansas City can win for two reasons: the random nature of a five-game series and the fact that Ragans and Lugo could be sent to the mound in three of a possible five games.

Ragans, who threw six scoreless innings against the Orioles on Tuesday, would be in line to start Game 2 against Rodón at Yankee Stadium, making him available for a possible Game 5 in New York.

The Royals’ offense finished 13th in the Majors in runs scored, but Witt, the AL batting champion, can change a game with his bat and his speed.

Are the Yankees the better team on paper? Yes. But with this rotation and Witt in a five-game series? Baseball can definitely happen. — Rustin Dodd

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletics MLB personnel.

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Yankees player in the spotlight: Aaron Judge, CF

He’s the best player in baseball. Period. This year, he may even be a better overall hitter than when he hit 62 home runs to set an AL single-season record in 2022. Judge topped the MLB leaderboards in 12 statistical categories, including home runs (58), RBIs (144), walks running (133), OPS (1.159) and fWAR (11.2). He has been a solid defender in midfield this season and is in his second season as the team’s official captain. And as Judge builds his case for the Hall of Fame, he’ll be motivated to check off one more box: postseason performance. In 44 playoff games, he hit just .211 with a .772 OPS. A big turnout in October and ultimately winning a World Series ring should be his main concerns. But here’s the question: Will the Royals let Judge beat them? – Kuty

Royals Player Spotlight: Bobby Witt Jr., SS

Witt comes in second behind Judge in the AL MVP voting. But he would definitely prefer a trip to the ALCS.

Witt, 24, delivered the game-winning RBI in Game 1 against the Orioles. He’s been living the moment all season. In his third Major League season, he became the first player in history with 200 hits, 100 runs, 40 doubles, 30 home runs, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases in the same year.

There are no brighter lights than Yankee Stadium in October, and as Royals general manager JJ Picollo likes to say:

Witt does not long for the spotlight. But he certainly seems to embrace it. – Dodd

Story of the tape

Yankees Must Reads

Why Aaron Judge called a players-only meeting that kicked off the Yankees’ September run

Inside Aaron Judge’s swing change that helped him to another monster season

Five takeaways from the Yankees’ regular season and what’s next in the postseason

A look at the Yankees’ scouting and development of Luis Gil

Matt Blake on why Yankees fans should believe in the team’s bullpen ahead of the postseason

Royals must reads

Fear the Royals, the unlikely scholars of October

Looking back at the trade that sent Cole Ragans to KC

King of the eight-court club: Seth Lugo has a huge arsenal of All-Star success

How Bobby Witt Jr. ‘Bobby Baseball’ became: nine stories on the way to superstardom

Around Bobby Witt Jr. Royals build a new culture and enter the modern MLB era

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Guardians vs. Tigers ALDS preview: predictions, pitching matchups and more

(Top image: Aaron Judge: Luke Hales/Getty Images; Bobby Witt Jr.: Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)