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    • Who won the VP debate last night? This is what snap polls and betting markets say.
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    Who won the VP debate last night? This is what snap polls and betting markets say.

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    Topline

    Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, faced off Tuesday night in a largely polite but policy-focused vice presidential debate that some described as “nicely Midwestern,” but bettors and viewers polled believed that the Republican candidate defeated his Democratic rival.

    Key facts

    CBS News, which moderated the debate, released a quick poll of debate viewers shortly after the event, in which 42% of respondents thought Vance won, 41% gave the lead to Walz, and 17% thought it was a tie.

    According to the CBS poll, both candidates received a positive boost after the debate, with Vance’s numbers rising from 40% to 49%, while Walz rose from 52% to 60%.

    CNN also released an immediate post-debate poll of viewers asking which candidate did better, with Vance narrowly defeating Walz 51-49.

    The CNN poll also showed an increase in favorability for both candidates, with respondents who view Walz favorably rising from 46% to 59%, while Vance’s numbers rose from 30% to 41%.

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    How did the betting markets react?

    The betting markets declared Vance the winner of the debate. On crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, bookmakers think Vance has a 73% chance of being rated the winner of Tuesday night’s debate in post-debate polls, compared to Walz’s 27%. This is a complete reversal from before the debate, when bettors gave Walz a 70% chance of being declared the winner of the debate.

    Tangent

    Bookmakers in the election betting markets gave former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning a slight boost on Tuesday, but most of the shift occurred a few hours before the debate – likely due to favorable polling for Republicans in Georgia and North Carolina. Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead, however, with bookmarks giving her a 50.3% chance of winning in November, up from 48.9%.

    Read more

    Trump Claims Harris ‘Only’ Requested Another Debate, But Again Says He Won’t Do It (Forbes)

    Walz says he ‘made a mistake’ by claiming he was in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square protests (Forbes)

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