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CNN Instant Poll: No clear winner in VP debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance
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CNN Instant Poll: No clear winner in VP debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance



CNN

Registered voters watching Tuesday’s debate between vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance were closely divided over which candidate did better, according to a CNN instant poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS, and the event left viewers with a received a more positive image of both candidates than before the debate.

Among debate watchers, Walz remains the candidate who is viewed more positively and better fits their needs and vision for the country. Vance, who faces a bigger image deficit among both viewers and the general public, strengthened his position among the debate audience, outperforming expectations and gaining ground on the share that considers him qualified. He was also narrowly seen as defending his running mate better than Walz. According to the poll, both men are seen by a majority of debate viewers as qualified to assume the presidency if necessary. And virtually none of the voters who participated saw the debate as a reason to change their vote.

After the debate, 51% of viewers said Vance did a better job, while 49% chose Walz. In a pre-debate survey of the same voters, Walz had the advantage as a candidate they expected to perform more strongly: 54% to 45%.

The sharply divided opinions on the outcome of Tuesday’s debate are in stark contrast to the more decisive public response following this year’s summit debates. In June, two-thirds of debate viewers believed former President Donald Trump outperformed President Joe Biden, while a 63% majority who tuned in to the September debate between Trump and Kamala Harris said the vice president had done better.

The vice presidential hopefuls’ positions Tuesday night were largely divided along predetermined political lines: 90% of debate watchers who support Trump’s candidacy said Vance did better, while a slightly smaller 82% of Harris supporters who sign in Walz saw as the winner.

The poll results reflect the opinions of the debate among registered voters only and are not representative of the opinions of the entire voting public. Debate watchers in the poll were three percentage points more likely to be Democratic-leaning than Republican, making for an audience that was about 5 points more Democratic-leaning than all registered voters nationally. That’s a difference from the audiences for the two presidential debates this year, both of which leaned slightly more Republican Party-leaning than the potential American electorate at large. What voters who don’t tune in hear about an event in the coming days can often be just as impactful as their immediate view of the event itself.

After the debate, 59% of debate viewers said they had a favorable view of Walz, while only 22% rated him unfavorably – an improvement over his already positive numbers among the same pre-debate voters (46% favorable, 32% unfavorable ). Debate viewers left the debate with a roughly neutral view of Vance, with 41% rating him favorably and 44% unfavorably. That’s also an improvement over their view of Vance before the debate, when his ratings among this group were deeply underwater (30% favorable, 52% unfavorable).

Among debate watchers, Walz strengthened his preference among women much more than among men, while Vance’s gains were about the same among voters of both genders. About 1 in 5 Trump supporters (21%) who signed up now say they have a favorable view of Walz, while Vance’s approval rating for Harris’ supporters is just 8%.

In a pre-debate CNN poll of all Americans, opinions of Walz were narrowly above water, with 36% of voters rating him favorably, 32% unfavorably, and a sizable 33% saying they had never heard of him or had no idea opinion about him. In contrast, views of Vance were negative, with 30% of registered voters rating him favorably, 42% unfavorably, and 27% expressing no opinion.

A 65% majority of debate viewers now say Walz is qualified to serve as president if necessary, while 58% say the same about Vance. Before the debate, 62% of the same voters thought Walz was qualified to assume the presidency if necessary, and 50% thought Vance was qualified to do so.

Debate watchers said, 48% to 35%, that Walz is more in touch than Vance with the needs and problems of people like them, and by a similar margin, 48% to 39%, that Walz, rather than Vance, shares it more closely their vision for America. The share of viewers who say both vice presidential candidates are aware of their issues is twice as high as the share who say neither is: 12% to 6% – a level of positivity unusual in the election cycle of this year.

There is a significant gender gap among viewers on which candidate best shares their vision for America: Among female voters, Walz has the clear advantage, with half saying he does, compared to the 36% who see Vance’s vision as closer to that of them considers. Male voters were more evenly divided: 47% Walz to 43% Vance.

Viewers said by a narrow margin, 37% to 33%, that Vance did better than Walz in defending his running mate, with 27% saying each candidate did equally well, and 3% saying neither did. Seven in 10 Trump supporters said Vance defended his running mate better, while 57% of Harris supporters said Walz did the best job.

A negligible 1% of voters who tuned in to the debate said it changed their minds about who to vote for, while Harris and Trump’s supporters wouldn’t see the event as decisive either.

The CNN poll was conducted by text message among 574 registered U.S. voters who said they watched the debate on Tuesday, and the survey’s findings are only representative of the views of debate viewers. Respondents were recruited to participate before the debate and were selected through a survey of members of the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative panel recruited using probability-based sampling techniques. The results for the full sample of debate viewers have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.