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Temperature forecast for October Unseasonably warm for many
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Temperature forecast for October Unseasonably warm for many

By means of Jennifer Gray

4 days ago

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  • Warmer than average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. for the first full month of fall.
  • Temperatures can be cooler than average in the Pacific Northwest and even South Florida.
  • Extreme drought could worsen in parts of the country through October.

Temperatures in October will most likely not feel very autumnal, as the weather forecast calls for above-average warmth for much of the country.

All autumn temperatures are suspended for millions. October temperatures are expected to be above average for much of the country, with the most abnormal warmth extending from the Southwest to the Midwest and the Great Lakes, according to an updated forecast issued Saturday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

The temperature outlook has turned warmer than previous forecasts earlier this month, showing growing confidence that October will remain warm.

The rest of the country is also expected to experience above-average temperatures, with the only exceptions being the Pacific Northwest and South Florida.

This doesn’t mean we won’t have cold fronts and cooler days. Pumpkin spice and sweaters will still be present, but overall temperature trends will be warmer than average this month.

One thing forecasters are watching for is the possibility of colder than average temperatures arriving in the central and eastern states in the second half of the month, but it’s too early to be sure.

October may remain dry in drought-affected areas. Much of the U.S. is expected to remain drier than average through the first full month of fall. There could be little relief for places like West Virginia and southern Ohio, where drought conditions continue to worsen.

(​MORE: 5 weather changes to expect during fall)

Nationally, nearly half (45%) of pasture and rangelands were rated in very poor to poor condition as of September 22, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, compared to a low of 19% in early summer.

“The central Appalachians remained the focus of a drought that has devastated agricultural interests and left several West Virginia communities — including the town of Richwood in Nicholas County — dangerously short of drinking water,” the latest U.S. drought monitor said.

The only part of the country that is expected to experience above-average rainfall is the Pacific Northwest. Parts of this region have also experienced drought and would benefit from a wetter pattern.