A pair of Big 12 rivals who are both coming off losses and 0-1 in conference play look to get back on track this weekend as No. 23 Kansas State welcomes No. 20 Oklahoma State in Week 5 action. college football on Saturday.

Kansas State had a 71 percent chance of winning on the road against BYU, but saw those chances evaporate as it allowed 31 unanswered points on the road and suffered three turnovers, leaving it ranked just 117th nationally in passing this week production per match.

Oklahoma State posts nearly 310 yards in the air per game but ranks 115th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing capacity as reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon has failed to rush for 50 yards in each of his last three games and averaging just over 3 yards per carry in that time.

The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread against FBS opponents this season, while the Wildcats are 1-2 ATS in that category this weekend.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what to watch for when Kansas State and Oklahoma State face off, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Run the ball. Ollie Gordon is college football’s reigning Doak Walker Award winner but has missed action this season, totaling 258 yards and 4 touchdowns, been held to less than 3 yards per carry in the last two games and has yet to rush for 50 yards against an FBS defense.

He still has to adapt as opponents load the box against him, and the Wildcats could still pose a formidable challenge. They rank 16th in the FBS in rushing defense, allowing just over 83 yards per game, and they rank 17th in giving up just 2.75 yards per opponent carry.

2. Ditto for K-State. The story is different, albeit mixed, for Kansas State, which boasts a top-15 rushing attack behind DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. As a whole, the team posts 6.5 yards per attempt, 6th nationally.

One area of ​​relative weakness? They have just four rushing TDs this year, in part because the offense is a mediocre 62nd in third-down production, moving the chains on 42 percent of attempts.

3. Pokes can swing it. With the Cowboys’ ground game at a standstill, Alan Bowman picks up the slack and leads an Air Raid that ranks 15th in passing production, averaging nearly 311 yards per game and hitting on nearly 63 percent of his attempts.

But the Wildcats could throw him off the pace, with a strong front-7 lineup that leads the Big 12 with 12 sacks and 31 tackles for loss. K-State’s 7.8 TFLs per game are 14th in FBS, and Brendan Mott is 12th in the nation with 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.

Most analytical models give the Cowboys a slight edge over the Wildcats this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma State is projected to win the game in a 52.9 percent majority of the most recent computer simulations.

That leaves Kansas State as the projected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

The model predicts a very close game, as Oklahoma State is expected to be 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field.

More…Cowboys vs. Wildcats: What the Analytics Say

Kansas State is a 4.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to rules at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 57.5 points per game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at +164 and for Kansas State at -200 to win outright.

In a game chock full of early Big 12 title implications, it should come down to which team has better ball control and time of possession.

Bowman has the arm and receivers to credibly test the Wildcats’ secondary, but the lack of a rushing threat in the loss to Utah shows that good front sevens can contain Gordon and keep the Cowboys offense to can bring back one dimension.

Kansas State’s ability to limit ground gains up front, combined with its strong rushing ability, should be enough to pull this one out, but it will be close.

College Football HQ chooses…

More…Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model

When: Saturday September 28
Time: 11am Central
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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