Baylor shouldn’t have lost to Colorado last week. Leading 31-24 with less than four minutes remaining, the Bears missed a 45-yard field goal.

Shedeur Sanders then completed a 43-yard Hail Mary touchdown to tie the game as time expired.

After Colorado scored first in overtime, Dominic Richardson fumbled on the goal line in response to Baylor.

Conversely, BYU shouldn’t have beaten Kansas State last week.

The Cougars gained 416 total yards to 241, but they won thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns and two short-field touchdown drives after interceptions.

Because of those fortuitous results, the Bears are underrated at home against BYU on Saturday.

Baylor’s offense has improved after switching from DeQuann Finn to Sawyer Robertson, who has completed 64 percent of his passes for 9.3 YPA, three touchdowns and no picks over the past two weeks.

Robertson has helped open up the ground game as the Bears rushed for 396 yards over his two starts.

BYU’s passing attack has shined behind Jake Retzlaff, but the Cougars can’t run the ball and will be without top defenseman LJ Martin on Saturday.

Baylor’s veteran defense improved when Dave Aranda started calling plays.

The Bears rank 25th in EPA per play allowed and fifth in success rate allowed, including fourth in success rate allowed.

That doesn’t bode well for Retzlaff’s one-dimensional offense.

The pick: Baylor -3.

The state of Oklahoma (+5) over the state of KANSAS

I’m low on Oklahoma State this season, mainly because the Cowboys can’t establish the run attack despite deploying Ollie Gordon II and an experienced line.

If the Cowboys can’t run, they’ll have to lean on the erratic Alan Bowman, who struggles with turnovers and makes progress.

But Bowman hasn’t been bad this year, with the Pokes ranking in the top 40 in success rate and EPA per Dropback.

And his shortcomings may not matter against a lifeless high schooler at Kansas State, who ranks 74th in passing percentage allowed and has been torn apart by chunk plays.

Conversely, Oklahoma State’s 3-3-5 defense is vulnerable to chunk passing plays, ranking 130th in explosiveness allowed.

But Kansas State’s run-heavy offense isn’t designed to carry this out.

The Wildcats’ special teams unit is also concerning, ranking 125th in average net field position (-7.3).

PENN STATE (-18) over Illinois

Illinois is overrated after its 4-0 start.

The Illini were fortunate to win games against Kansas and Nebraska, needing a plus-four turnover margin to earn both wins.

If the Illini were 2-2, they would probably take well over 20 points on the road at Penn State.

Penn State’s new offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki, is a wizard.

Betting on college football?

He has helped develop Drew Allar into an elite quarterback and paired him with a dominant two-headed tailback monster in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

The Lions should run it against a perfectly average defense because that’s what James Franklin does.

Penn State is 35-21-2 against the spread as a double-digit favorite under the longtime head coach.

Last week: 3-0. Texas Tech (W), Rutgers (W), Utah (W)
Season 2024: 6-6.

Why trust New York Post betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and every underdog in the house. He found himself on the wrong end of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made amends four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot over Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.