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Magic numbers, wildcard tiebreakers, Ohtani stats

Vaseline September 27, 2024

The six-month slog has been reduced to just three matches. Emotional stagnation will give way to total relief.

And Major League Baseball’s playoff picture will likely be finally decided this weekend.

“The last few days, after a couple of wins, you could feel it in everyone here,” said Kansas City Royals pitcher Seth Lugo, whose club went from a dead team to the front door of the postseason thanks to a three-game sweep at Washington. “On the bus going back to the hotel – hey, we’re almost there, let’s hook up, let’s celebrate.

“We can taste it.”

Lugo’s Royals will carry a magic number of one into their final series of the weekend in Atlanta, meaning one win over the Braves or a loss at Minnesota in any of the three games against Baltimore will send KC into play for the first time since 2015. offs will lead.

As teams pack up for another series at the end of the season, four postseason invites and a fair amount of seeding remain in flux. Additionally, a handful of milestones are well within the reach of certain superstars before their season is forever cemented on their baseball cards.

USA TODAY Sports takes care of the unfinished business heading into the final weekend of the season:

AL wild card

What could have been a mess took on much more clarity Thursday thanks to late rallies by the Royals and Detroit Tigers that eliminated the Seattle Mariners. Barely breathing, the Minnesota Twins erase a four-run deficit against the Miami Marlins, only to lose a 13-inning heartbreaker, leaving just a little more weekend work for their AL Central overlords.

Baltimore (88-71) can seal the No. 1 wild-card slot and a home series with one win this weekend in Minnesota, or one loss in Detroit.

Kansas City (85-74) has a magic number of one over the Twins to clinch a playoff berth. The Royals, who play in Atlanta, own the tiebreaker against Detroit and have a magic number of three against the Tigers. They cannot finish higher than the No. 2 seed.

Detroit (85-74) has a magic number of one over the Twins to clinch a playoff berth. The Tigers, hosting the Chicago White Sox, could end up with the No. 1 wild-card slot and earn a home wild-card series with three wins this weekend and three Orioles losses.

Minnesota (82-77) must sweep away Baltimore this weekend and hope Detroit or Kansas City are swept away; the Twins own the tiebreaker over both clubs.

AL sowing

The East champion New York Yankees (93-66) have a magic number of two against Central champion Cleveland (92-67) to clinch the No. 1 spot; the Yankees, who finish at home against the Pirates, own the tiebreaker over the Guardians, and both teams are guaranteed a bye in the first round.

The West champion Houston Astros (86-73) are locked into the No. 3 seed and will host the wild-card club with the worst record in the best-of-three series. The winner of that series will advance to the No. 2 seed in the Division Series.

NL sow

The West champion Los Angeles Dodgers (95-64) need to win one more game than the East champion Philadelphia Phillies (94-65) to take the top spot in the NL. The Dodgers end up in Colorado; the Phillies are in Washington.

The Central champion Milwaukee Brewers (91-68) are locked into the No. 3 seed and will host the wild-card club with the worst record in the best-of-three series. The winner of that series will advance to the No. 2 seed in the Division Series.

NL wildcard

Ah, yes, the most complicated for last.

The San Diego Padres (91-68) have clinched a wild-card spot and can secure the top wild-card spot with one win over Arizona and any combination of three wins and losses at the New York Mets.

The Mets (87-70), Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) and Atlanta Braves (86-71) are battling for the final two wild-card slots. The Mets and Braves have five games remaining thanks to a makeup doubleheader played Monday in Atlanta if it affects playoff berths.

The Braves play Kansas City, the Mets are in Milwaukee this weekend and Arizona hosts the Padres.

Now that there are still a number of record combinations left, let’s first go to the tiebreaks:

The Mets and Braves both win the tiebreaker against the Diamondbacks.

The Braves led the season series against the Mets 6-5, and would secure a tiebreaker advantage with one win against the Mets.

The buck certainly falls on the Diamondbacks this weekend, who would lose in both two- and three-way tiebreakers. Two out of three against the Padres means they’re in if Atlanta loses two to Kansas City – or one to the Royals or New York.

In that scenario, if the Mets were to win two of three against a Milwaukee team with little to play for, the Mets could eliminate the Braves by winning the doubleheader opener and making the second game moot.

Here’s a nightmare scenario for a 90-72 Arizona team: the Mets sweep Milwaukee, the Braves win two against Kansas City and sweep a pair of a Mets team with little to play for. Everyone finishes 90-72 – and Arizona goes home.

Anyway, that’s just one permutation. The best advice? Stay informed!

Shohei Ohtani: 60-60?

Okay, maybe we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves here.

Ohtani shot past the previously unprecedented 50-steal, 50-homer mark with a monster game against a last-place foe. Well, he finishes this weekend with three games against a last-place foe, with the games being played at altitude.

He will enter the Dodgers’ final three games at Colorado’s Coors Field with 53 home runs and 56 stolen bases. The way Ohtani has gotten on base and gone wild, 60 steals seems like a given.

Can he hit seven home runs in three games?

Well, that depends on a lot of factors, most notably whether the Dodgers are still playing for seeding with an eye on the NLCS and World Series. And how much they value staying sharp in the face of a possible five-day layoff for an NL Division Series.

So the odds are against you. But know that Ohtani will return to pitch in 2025 and may not reach these heights again. It will be fascinating to see what songs he lands on.

Aaron Judge: Another shot at Maris – or himself?

It’s never wise to sleep on Judge.

Still, so much attention has been paid to Ohtani that it’s a little easier to somehow overlook the 6-7 slugger in the Bronx. But Judge homered in five straight games, giving him 58 for the season.

And three games to hit two home runs and join Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the only players with multiple 60-home run seasons. Three more, and his 2024 campaign is tied with Roger Maris for No. 2 on the AL single-season homer list.

Four more, and Judge ties his 2022 record with 62 home runs. Five more? Well, he faces the Pirates – although Pittsburgh will start rookie ace Paul Skenes on Saturday.

José Ramirez: 40-40?

Ah, such a strange little statistical plateau.

It was certainly easy to overlook what was once an unprecedented combination of power and speed, especially with today’s patronizing stolen base rules greatly inflating stolen base totals.

But Ramirez somehow remains an underrated superstar — and he needs just two home runs to join the 40-40 club.

The man is so stunningly consistent, his .867 OPS this year is right in line with his incredible .856 career mark. Still, Ramirez is on pace for his sixth AL MVP finish in the top six – and there are no trophies to show for that.

This time he has judge, Bobby Witt Jr. of Kansas City and Gunnar Henderson of Baltimore blamed for stealing his shine. But 40-40 doesn’t have to be compared to anyone else.

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