Good morning from Los Angeles,

The potential for madness was heightened yesterday.

The Padres’ loss to the Dodgers capped a series of events that kept things in the air in the National League wild-card race.

A 4-3 loss to the Ohtani-powered Dodgers left the Padre no longer in control of their own destiny, but on life support when it comes to the National League West race.

That leaves two scenarios in which the Padres win the division, and neither is all that likely. Both require the Padres to win tonight’s series finale here.

The Padres can still win the West if they win tonight and:

They sweep the Diamondbacks while the Dodgers lose at least two of three to the Rockies in Colorado.

-or-

They take two out of three in Arizona, while the Dodgers get swept by the Rockies.

Yes.

So let’s focus on what was most likely all along.

The Padres are still in a prime position in the quest for the NL’s top wildcard spot and the home series that comes with it.

One more win means the Diamondbacks can’t overtake the Padres. Two more wins (or a Mets win and a Mets loss or two Mets losses) means the Mets can’t overtake them.

But if those things don’t happen, things get difficult.

The Mets did not play yesterday and will not play today as the two remaining games in their series against the Braves in Atlanta were postponed until Monday due to the extended effects of Hurricane Helene.

Monday’s doubleheader will only be played if it affects the playoffs.

It is not certain exactly what the consequences for the play-offs mean.

A query to MLB about whether the games would be played if the three wild card teams had been decided but seeding could still be affected by the outcome of the Braves and Mets playing the final two games yielded this response:

“The doubleheader is scheduled for Monday, and it will be a decision of the Commissioner as to whether there are circumstances under which we would not play as scheduled.”

There’s a decent chance the Padres and/or Diamondbacks find themselves in limbo after their series. One or both may have to wait until late Monday afternoon to find out where they play on Tuesday and/or who their opponent will be. (The Diamondbacks could wait to see if they’re even in the playoffs.)

I won’t go into depth about the possible scenarios because I would probably leave out something very obvious.

Suffice to say, it remains possible that the Padres are the No. 6 seed and play their wild-card series in Milwaukee, or they are the No. 5 seed and play Arizona or New York next Tuesday.

Most likely, the Padres will go home Sunday night to await the Diamondbacks, Mets or Braves.

The best-case scenario for the Padres is that they get that home series and watch the Mets and Braves deplete their pitching staff on Monday.

Do it right

I wrote in my game story (here) about how the Padres’ loss went and how it had nothing to do with them celebrating clinching a playoff spot on Tuesday.

I received a number of emails from readers and heard a few complaints in the media about this, as if the Padres were drinking copious amounts of alcohol and partying until dawn.

They didn’t. At least there was no evidence that they did.

Asking questions about their party plans was fair. (That’s why I did that.)

But what if they hadn’t celebrated their achievement? What would they do now that division is all but out of reach? The time for celebration is over.

If you missed Joe Musgrove’s explanation of why the Padres celebrated, you can read what I wrote about that (here). Not in that story was Musgrove’s explanation of how the celebrations serve a purpose beyond a retrospective.

“Part of it is bonding,” he said. “That’s where guys grow that fire and intensity to keep going and do it again. Every celebration gets better and better and better.”

Disneyland has nothing to do with a big party. For the participants, it is the happiest place on earth at that moment. Some describe it as just after the birth of a child or a wedding day.

There is a lot of failure and a lot of losing in baseball. So winning brings them together, and celebrating clinching a playoff spot or a playoff series cultivates the bond between those participating, because they’ve all earned the right to let loose together in that way.

Who is it?

Dylan Cease’s latest start of the regular season has done nothing to clarify one of the Padres’ big questions:

What does their rotation look like for a wildcard series?

They have four candidates for a maximum of three starts.

Cease, who allowed three runs last night while battling through five innings, should be one of those starters. That includes Joe Musgrove. That includes Michael King (provided he doesn’t have to pitch Sunday’s season finale).

But are you really leaving out Yu Darvish? And in what order do they pitch?

It’s an enviable problem. But an important decision remains to be made.

Tell me what you would do.

Not all good

Mostly excellent pitching has masked some of the Padres’ offensive problems of late, as their staff posted an MLB-best ERA of 1.43 and the Padres won nine of their 11 games last night.

But last night’s four-hit effort marked the fifth time in the past 12 games that the Padres have had six hits or fewer. They are batting .255 and have an on-base percentage of .309 while scoring 4.1 runs per game over the 12 games.

The Padres had six or fewer hits in just five of their previous 34 games, a stretch in which they hit .272/.343 and scored 5.3 runs per game.

The Padres were hitting .277 with runners in scoring position before this 12-game stretch. They are hitting .227 through the 12 games.

Some individual struggles don’t seem like a good trend considering what’s coming for the Padres.

• Luis Arraez has two hits in his past 24 at bats.
• Manny Machado went 1-for-11 against the White Sox and is 1-for-6 with two walks against the Dodgers. That’s a 2-for-17 total over the past five games. He has struck out at least once in ten straight games.
• Donovan Solano has four hits in his past 30 at bats.
• Catchers Kyle Higashioka and Elías Díaz are hitting a combined 7-for-49 (.143) since September 4.

You have to know when to hold them

Wandy Peralta threw yesterday for the first time since September 11th.

I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter about why the Padres had essentially limited their bullpen usage to five relievers. The biggest factor is that they have played in a lot of close games.

And while yesterday was another one — the seventh time in the past nine games they were up or down by two or fewer points — Mike Shildt couldn’t afford to put any of his top three high-leverage relievers in a game in which the Padres followed suit.

Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez had all pitched six of the previous 10 days. And with four days of potentially big games ahead, Shildt had to rely on someone else last night.

With the Padres trailing 4-3, Peralta relieved Bryan Hoeing with one out and a runner on first base in the eighth inning, forcing Kiké Hernández into a double play.

facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr.’s game-tying home run in the fifth inning traveled an expected distance of 450 feet, the longest home run hit by a Padres player this season. Tatis has five of the Padres’ seven longest home runs this season.
• Tatis also doubled last night and has 12 extra-base hits (seven home runs, five doubles) in his past 54 at-bats.
• Jake Cronenworth went 0-for-2 with two walks last night. Over his past 36 starts, Cronenworth is hitting .228 with a .359 OBP. It’s the third-largest difference between the two numbers in the major leagues in that span (since August 14), behind Yankees duo Aaron Judge (.300/.438) and Juan Soto (.227/.366).
• Brandon Lockridge has likely solidified his spot on the postseason roster as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He stole second base in two tries last night.

Okay, that’s it for me.

I’ll talk to you tomorrow.