Sean McVay’s reaction to the Rams’ win should apply to the rest of Week 3.

Even when we think we know what’s going to happen, the players give us something else. It’s part of why we analyze and play this game. Our data points and conclusions can provide guidance. And yet every Sunday at kick-off there is new information. We need to take more context into account.

I’ll probably go through all the storylines from last week until next Sunday morning. To help you prepare for Week 4, let’s dive deeper into the biggest talking points coming out of the latest round of NFL action.

New defensive coverages? No problem: buy new receivers!

The shift in defensive play has the effect of throwing offenses into disarray. On the non-serious side, analysts are calling for a rule change to restore power over violations. Meanwhile, in reality, only one of the QBs drafted this year has thrown for more than 300 yards in a single game.

I agree that a talent gap exists, but the problem extends (much) further than what the defense raises. But while quarterback development (or lack thereof) has been the headline for the top-12 QBs, at least one of the top-12 WRs appears to have their act together.

Through three weeks, Malik Nabers has earned the highest target and air meter share of any new WR since 2000. Opportunities are not an issue here. But Daniel Jones throwing him the ball (at least) looks that way.

Take your preferred accuracy metric (adjusted completion rate, CPOE) and you’ll find Jones in the bottom half. But for all the mistakes of HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka, finding ways to get the ball in the first round isn’t one of them.

Nabers’ roadmap for Week 2 highlights some of the problem with trying to determine his usage. He’s everywhere.

His first five routes in Week 3 included two Hitches (on five air yards), a Go (28), an Out (for a TD) and a Slant. Even better, Jones’ 68.0% target percentage at Nabers is the highest among Giants WRs, according to SportsInfoSolutions.

At this point, my only concern is whether Nabers will lull the Giants’ front office into keeping Jones past his current contract.

Stunner in the backfield for the Bucs

Rachaad White would make an excellent used car salesman. For example, look at the 2023 workhorse he sold most of you this year for the low price of a third-round draft pick.

• All-purpose yards: 1,539 (fourth)

• Objectives: 70 (ninth)

• Total TDs: 9 (T-11th most)

Those are hard numbers to beat. After averaging 15.8 PPR PPG, I understand why people didn’t blink twice at an early round sticker price. But anyone who looked under the hood knew something was up.

Granted, these advanced stats don’t correlate strongly with fantasy production. The nerd in me hates this, it’s true. However, having the fourth-most runs of a yard or less on early downs, giving your team the 12th-most yards to go in obvious passing situations, doesn’t require any analysis. That’s not good! It’s probably no coincidence that White had the second-most carries in the league last year and still didn’t reach 1,000 yards on the ground.

Unsurprisingly, nothing has changed through three weeks of this season. Like Michael Bluth, I don’t know what I expected. Tampa has made positive offensive line adjustments, and you’ll still find White at the bottom of every ranking.

What’s worse is that he now has legitimate competition for touches.

Pick a rushing stat and Bucky Irving comes out as the better option. Weighing 20 pounds lighter, the Oregon product has moved the chains at a higher rate (20.0% to 6.5% first down per rush speed) while matching White in explosive plays. Even HC Todd Bowles acknowledged the need to get Irving more reps.

But a move or a bigger split for the rookie isn’t just about fantasy. Tampa averaged its lowest yards per play on early downs against Denver (4.6). Accordingly, Baker Mayfield’s success rate in obvious passing situations plummeted from 46.2% in W1 to 33.3% against the Broncos. Irving should be a top priority in relief for Week 4, but his productivity should boost the rest of the offense as well.

Keep going, Andy Dalton

Okay, let’s get the Andy Dalton superlatives out of the way.

• Dalton’s 0.24 EPA per game ranks first among all QB performances since Carolina drafted Bryce Young.

• Dalton scored the most passing scores in a single match since 2020 (3).

• Carolina’s Week 3 total (437) is the highest since Week 16 of 2022.

Without a doubt, the Panthers switching to the Red Rifle allowed them to see HC Dave Canales’ vision for the offense. And surprisingly, the change didn’t just benefit one skill player.

Diontae Johnson was confident he would align with Dalton given his route-running ability. The former Steeler had already made 21.8% of Young’s targets. His role in the WR1 was undisputed. However, with a more competent QB, Carolina’s passing game took a significant leap forward.

Like Baker Mayfield with Canales, Dalton attacked every level of the field. His center field throwing percentage of 52.9% was a season high, along with his 10 air yard attempts. Both allowed Dalton to put his receivers in positions to create. Every wideout (except Adam Thielen, who left early) averaged over six yards AFTER the catch. But it wasn’t just ball placement that kept the passing game alive.

Young collapsed under the pressure. His adjusted completion percentage of 33.3% under duress ranked last among all starters. The Raiders tested the Panthers’ backup to see if he would respond the same way. Las Vegas blitzed 56.4% of Dalton’s dropbacks. He responded by completing over 70.0% of his passes for nine first downs. So adding Xavier Legette (who ran more routes and collected more air yards than Jonathan Mingo) makes sense for Week 4. But the running game also got a boost.

At 36.0 yards per drive, Carolina ran more plays in their opponent’s red zone (14) than in their previous two games combined. Chuba Hubbard quickly found his way to the end zone. Hubbard remains the player for now, but if you can bench Jonathon Brooks, he’ll hit the ground running with Dalton under center.

No Tua. No Skylar. No hope?

Unfortunately, I don’t have any “confidence” stats to quote here. In both cases, it’s part of what kept the Dolphins offense humming, with Tua Tagovailoa zipping the ball down the field. I realize they are unique plays, but they emphasize my points.

If you pause after six seconds, you’ll see that Tua is already halfway through his excitement. Jaylen Waddle may have two moves on the defenseman. Either way, they both know how the play will end. Waddle turned his head after crossing the 24-yard line. It was a shawl. Now compare Tua’s anticipatory style to what we saw on Sunday:

Again, both clips are just snapshots. One from last season. But they provide qualitative context to a factual statistic.

On Sunday you could feel the delay in decision-making. Thompson certainly did that. Boyle fared no better. Either way, you can see how something so nuanced could short-circuit one of the most efficient offenses in the league.

Their running game already ranks 31st in rushing EPA, while De’Von Achane trails only D’Andre Swift in rushing yards above expectations. And without a robot at QB, the fragility of the roster becomes a bigger discussion.

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Despite praising Mike McDaniel as a top-tier play-caller like his former colleagues, the Dolphins don’t have any additional TEs or receivers to convert into a run-first offense like the Packers have done for Malik Willis. Also, they don’t have the reincarnation of Randy Moss as their WR3 like the 49ers.

Achane’s 18.3% target share (third among RBs) and Tyreek Hill’s explosive talent are the only pieces worth keeping in this offense. Until Tua comes back, see what value you can get for the rest in a trade.

Sam Darnold could be a 2024 league winner? Certainly.

So I want to be honest when it comes to evaluating this version of Sam Darnold.

Yes, from 2018 to 2020 you would be hard pressed to find a worse QB. Mitch Trubisky ranked higher in CPOE, EPA per game and success rate. And yet, Trubisky hangs around Buffalo, watching Josh Allen build his case for the MVP title, while Darnold revives his career.

To the Darnold naysayers: I understand. We compared Darnold’s 38 games as a Jets starter to a three-game sample in 2024. Again, the nerd in me hates that this is true. But look at what New York aired with Darnold in Week 1 of his final season in New York.

• RB: Frank Gore, Le’Veon Bell

• WR: Chris Hogan, Breshad Perriman, Jamison Cowder

• TE: Chris Herndon

So definitely. Darnold is not a talent elevator. However, he has at least one player who is (for now).

Justin Jefferson’s explosives and highlights will always capture our attention. But he terrorizes defenses from all over the field.

Jefferson has the 10th-highest target percentage in the slot, but only Chris Godwin and Rashee Rice have generated more yards from the interior. Jefferson is just as scary on the outside. He is one of five wideouts with a YPRR greater than 2.5 from the perimeter (2.67). With KOC moving JJettas before the snap at the eighth-fastest rate and allowing him to connect with Darnold through play-action on 28.6% of his targets (fourth-highest among WR1s), little defense can be done to counter Darnold to keep.

But it’s not just Minnesota’s passing game that Darnold “backs.” Their ground attack also makes it easier.

Remember how I said the lack of efficiency of Miami’s running game will hurt their passing game without Tua? The Vikings are the opposite. When choosing to run on early downs, the combined efforts of Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler have averaged 4.8 yards per play (eighth). In turn, Minnesota’s third-down conversion rate ranks third in the league at 45.7%.

Is it possible that Darnold will turn back into a pumpkin or play a bad game? Certainly. Derek Carr just reminded us to use small samples. However, with this core around Darnold and help along the way, Darnold’s advantage as a league winner isn’t as difficult as it sounds.