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    • Tropical storm Helene path, spaghetti models
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    Tropical storm Helene path, spaghetti models

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    According to the National Hurricane Center, multiple tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday as Tropical Storm Helene continues to strengthen.

    The NHC said in its 7 a.m. CDT advisory Wednesday that Helene is currently located about 60 miles east-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph. The storm is moving toward the northwest at about 9 mph, the NHC said, and that motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning.

    According to the hurricane center, a “general northward motion” is expected sometime Wednesday that will continue through Friday. The center of the storm is expected to move along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday morning, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida Thursday night.

    The NHC expects Helene to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, then “rapidly strengthen” over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

    Helene’s aggressive prediction: Helene’s explosive forecast one of ‘most aggressive’ in hurricane history

    Helene’s forecast is one of the ‘most aggressive’ in hurricane history

    Helene’s rapid intensification forecast from a potential tropical cyclone to a Category 3 hurricane appears to be the fastest progression the National Hurricane Center has ever predicted for a depression.

    “They’ve never forecast a major hurricane within 60 hours for a disturbance below tropical storm level,” Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and software engineer for DTN Weather, told USA TODAY on Tuesday, based on a computer analysis of the center’s historical forecast data. “The whole forecast is also basically faster than we’ve ever seen for 36 hours and 48 hours of a tropical depression.”

    The National Hurricane Center didn’t have those statistics available Tuesday because it was focusing on operational forecasts for Helene, now a tropical storm, but “it’s either the highest or one of the highest,” said John Cangialosi, one of the center’s senior hurricane specialists.

    The forecast of a “70-knot surge in 72 hours on Monday was one of the most aggressive forecasts” for a potential tropical cyclone, Cangialosi said.

    “It’s an aggressive forecast for good reasons,” he said. “We’re trying to get ahead of the potential for rapid intensification before it gets to Florida.”

    Warnings and Alerts in effect for Florida

    Below is a summary of the warnings in effect in Florida.

    Tropical Storm Helene Tracker

    Spaghetti models of tropical storm Helene

    Illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models to make its forecasts.

    NHC tracks two other tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean

    The hurricane center also said Wednesday morning that it is monitoring two other tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean, one of which could become a tropical depression in the coming days.

    The disturbance is currently located west of Cape Verde and continues to produce “disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” ​​the NHC said.

    Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of the system, and a “tropical depression is likely to form within a few days” as the wave moves westward to north-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, the NHC said. The system has an 80 percent chance of forming in the next seven days.

    The second wave is currently described as a “non-tropical low pressure area” located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

    The hurricane center said earlier satellite wind data indicated the system was producing gale-force winds and that environmental conditions “could support some subtropical or tropical development over the next several days” as the system moves eastward and remains over the open waters of the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

    The NHC indicates there is a 20 percent chance of this system forming in the next seven days.

    Atlantic Storm Tracker

    Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

    Dinah Voyles Pulver is a climate change and environment writer for USA TODAY. She has covered hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp.

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