The NHL is expanding again. Probably.

That was the rumor that came out on the first day of Kevin Weekes’ camp with Andy Strickland, who said NHL owners would meet to approve the opening of the expansion. The 34-36 team era is (probably) coming.

While there will be plenty of legitimate debates about potential expansion, the big question will be how it affects the product on the ice. In that sense, there is one major selling point that usually comes with expansion: more offense.

The NHL is in a very good position with its current offensive product, averaging 6.22 goals per game last year. The stars are still shining as brightly as ever, with over 60 goals, over 100 assists and over 140 points. Those are numbers that many of us couldn’t imagine during the depths of the dead-puck era or the post-salary-cap boom, but they’re there and they’re making the league more exciting.

Some of that is a byproduct of expansion. When the Vegas Golden Knights were introduced in 2017-18, goals per game jumped from 5.54 to 5.94. When the Seattle Kraken were introduced in 2021-22, goals per game jumped from 5.88 to 6.28. In both cases, it was a jump of 0.4 goals per game.

Now, of course, that jump isn’t entirely due to expansion. The NHL significantly downsized goalie equipment for the 2017-18 season and has made a number of minor adjustments since then. But it’s no coincidence that the league’s scoring percentages increased significantly in each of those two seasons; it’s something that’s happened throughout the league’s history.

While there were no notable changes between the Original Six era and the expansion era when the league went to 12 teams, each subsequent jump — from 14 to 16 to 18 — saw an average jump of just over 0.4 goals per game. And while there was no notable increase in the first year of the WHA merger, the increase from seven goals per game in the late 1970s to over 7.5 in the first half of the 1980s cannot be ignored. A shift from 21 to 24 teams in the early 1990s saw a temporary increase of 0.34 goals per game, while a shift from 26 to 30 teams provided temporary relief from the dead-puck era with a jump of 0.24 goals per game.

There is one season that stands out as an exception to the rule: 1993-94, where the addition of two teams coincided with a drop of 0.78 goals per game. Since that season heralded the beginning of the dead-puck era, it likely has more to do with a tactical shift. Even with that season bringing things down, the average annual jump in goals per game in years when the league expands is 0.16 goals. On a per-team basis, it’s closer to 0.12 goals per game.

The reason for this is obvious: talent dilution. A new team means 20 more roster spots, which usually means 20 more replacement-level players are added to the league’s pool. That shifts the league’s baseline, with stars advancing further, the average player getting slightly worse, and a new pool of weaker players to exploit at the bottom. It’s a subtle shift, but one that does seem to correlate with league-wide scoring.

To measure this, I compared the goals per game for the entire league to the average net rating (Net Rating) of every above-average player in the league in a given season. The idea is that a combined look at the top half of the league can determine the current level of dilution and the overall talent distribution of the league. The higher the number, the more spread out the talent is. For simplicity, we’ll call that number “talent distribution.”

It’s not surprising that there was a substantial jump in talent distribution in both 2017-18 and 2021-22, and it’s not surprising that there’s been a fairly solid relationship between the two in every season since 2007-08. More goals scored typically means more value being created by players, and value generally comes from the top half of the league. It’s a “duh” moment, but it’s a useful one for one simple reason: to gauge the effect that further increases in talent distribution from jumping to 34-36 teams could have on league-wide scoring.

Based on the correlation between scoring and talent spread, there is approximately a 0.43 goals per game jump for every one-goal increase in talent spread. For every two teams added, there is a 20-player shift in the league’s average baseline. Apply that shift to last season’s totals and here’s what you get: a 0.4 shift in talent spread for 34 teams, and a 0.65 shift in talent spread for 36 teams.

That means a 34-team league would likely see an increase to 6.48 goals per game, while an increase to 36 teams would equate to 6.58 goals per game. That’s a healthy increase that brings the league closer to the sweet spot of 6.5-7 — where the league was between 1990 and 1994. At 36 teams, that’s an increase of 0.09 goals per game for each added team; not far off the per-team average that previous expansions throughout history have seen. It’s always nice when the math works out.

This is all back-of-the-envelope math, and there’s a chance that expansion could have an even bigger effect — as we saw with Vegas and Seattle. There’s also a chance that it could have no effect at all. At every point in hockey history where the scoring went up, there was a strategic shift to capture it, and the same thing can happen after moving to 36 teams.

Still, it’s an interesting thought experiment, one that could potentially be relevant, especially given the current rise in superstar scoring rates.

Nikita Kucherov scored 144 points last season? That would be closer to 152 with an increase to 6.6 goals per game. Connor McDavid’s 153 from the year before would have been two points shy of 160.

Auston Matthews’ 69 goals last season would have been closer to 73. McDavid’s 100 assists would have been 106 assists (and a 114-assist pace).

The totals these players have already earned are cool, of course, but they could be even bigger and better with a boost in score, something that expansion almost always brings. Stars putting numbers on the board is always more fun and makes games more exciting. They’re what gets fans in their seats, and expansion could help take the game’s current golden age to historic levels.

Still, there are plenty of reasons to believe that expansion isn’t good for the league’s overall health. There are plenty of other ways to create more scoring power, too. But for a league that wants to expand more into U.S. markets and generate more revenue through hefty expansion costs, the likely increase in scoring power is a nice side effect that comes with it.

Want more goals? More teams might be the answer.

(Photo of Auston Matthews scoring a goal against Ilya Sorokin: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)