Sunday September 22, 2024

Morning report

Today is the first day of fall and it will feel like it. However, last night we saw a very strong cluster of thunderstorms move through our region. The strongest was between 1:00 and 4:00 AM, which was close to what was expected. However, many people were woken up and power was out in areas. There was heavy lightning, loud thunder and even large hail reported, a rarity this time of year… especially after midnight.

Radar report 01.00 to 03.30 hrs

Here is the post I made just after 01:35 AM. The comments help tell the story of the impact from Southern PA to North Central Maryland.

TODAY:

Fall officially begins at 8:43 AM. This is when the sun’s direct rays cross the equator and then shift south until spring. Our daylight hours are getting shorter by about 2 minutes and 30 seconds every day! This rapid decline translates into temperatures in our climate record getting one degree cooler every three days.

The coming week will bring clouds, cooler temperatures in the 70s, and showers almost every day. The best chance for persistent rain is Wednesday and Thursday, with a slow-moving frontal boundary.

Later in the week and the weekend the outlook is uncertain. The wild card is the chance of a tropical storm developing. More on this below.

Coastal Flood Warning

The highest water in places like Annapolis may be at this morning’s high tide. It overflowed into the City Dock parking lot.

Flood in Annapolis:

Cloud forecast: 8am to 6pm

Clouds should be pushed inland by the easterly wind. Skies will vary from partly sunny (more clouds) inland to clearing further east.

Afternoon Snapshot

Afternoon temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 22

Sunrise at 06:55 am

Sunset at 7:03 PM

Normal minimum in Baltimore: 13ºC

Record temperature of 37ºF in 1962

Normal high in Baltimore: 78ºF

Record 99ºF 1931 (record heat wave that year)

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

Click to see the full report:

MONDAY 23 SEPTEMBER

Morning temperatures

Wind forecast 6am to 4pm

A light breeze and more clouds will help keep temperatures in the lower 70s for eastern areas. It will be warmer west of the mountains.

Afternoon temperatures

LOOKING AHEAD

GFS Model Prediction Animation

Monday to Friday

The weather pattern is set for a slow-moving cold front that will creep and nearly stop over the eastern U.S. More rain will fall over the Ohio Valley and over the mountains, bringing waves of showers our way each day. The more consistent rain will move across the I-95 corridor Wednesday through Thursday.

The big question is what potential tropical system is trying to form in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall by the end of the week. More on that below.

Wednesday afternoon

The slow-moving boundary is expected to creep eastward and nearly stand still over the Mid-Atlantic by then, bringing persistent moderate to heavy rainfall for much of the day.

Thursday morning

The best chance for sustained rainfall is along that stationary boundary.

TROPICAL VIEW

The National Hurricane Center’s 7-Day Forecast

The chance of development this week is 70%.

Storm tracks

There is a big difference between the GFS and European ECMWF models. This is because the storm has not yet formed. The models only get a good picture of it when there is a clear low pressure area, where the storm is forming and when it happens.

Click here or on the images for the full tropical morning report.

7 day forecast

This chart looks like a very wet week, but the days that rain is likely to occur are Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, we will have occasional showers. The end of the week and the weekend are all dependent on the possible development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Share your thoughts and best weather photos/videos, or just stay up to date via social media.

PLAN A WEATHER-BASED STEEL INSTALLATION

Severe weather: Storm Smart in October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

Click to see more and submit a request for your school.

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers’ Choice Best of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat 10 Aug

We’ve raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND we’re still raising more

The annual event: 527 kilometers of hiking and biking in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp and Ocean City.

Every day we honor a child and their family going through cancer treatment.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I have never and will never take a dime. It is all for our non-profit to function.

Click here or on the image to donate:

REPEATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I know there are some spelling and grammatical errors and occasional other mistakes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches that I miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to earn the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had gotten this far without knowing it and that I shouldn’t let it be a crutch. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my own mistakes in my own proofreading. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes does an injustice to making it worse. I can also make mistakes in predicting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All the maps and information are accurate. The “wordy” stuff can get tricky.

There is no editor to check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when she is available. That may be AFTER you have read this. I accept this and perhaps prove that what you are reading is truly mine… It is part of my charm. #FITF