Act I of the 2024 college football season ends on Saturday. Act II, the Headliners portion, begins with Georgia-Alabama in Week 5 and countless huge games after that. But for now, we finish the information-gathering portion of the season. And there’s plenty of information left to gather.

On Saturday we’ll learn whether Oklahoma is actually ready to compete with the SEC’s elite, with the Sooners making their official league debut against maybe the hottest team in the country. We’ll learn whether Lincoln Riley’s USC is actually ready to handle Big Burly Manball. We’ll learn who the Big 12 front-runner should be. We’ll learn whether Clemson and/or Louisville are ready to be ACC vice-front-runners. We’ll learn whether Notre Dame can avoid going 0-2 in MAC play.

As always, there’s a lot to keep up with. Here’s everything you need to know about Week 4.

Jump to a topic:
Tennessee-OU | Big-time Big Ten
Big 12 roller coaster | ACC favorites
Chaos picks | Week 4 playlist
Small school showcase

Oklahoma’s SEC debut, for better or worse

It’s fitting that Oklahoma’s first official SEC game is against Tennessee. The Sooners and Volunteers have played only four times in their respective histories, but they’ve made their interactions count. Two of those four games were in the Orange Bowl, including a down-to-the-wire OU win in 1968, and a 2014-15 home-and-home series produced a classic in OU’s double-overtime comeback win in 2015.

There’s familiarity on the sidelines, too. OU coach Brent Venables was a longtime Bob Stoops assistant in Norman, and Tennessee’s Josh Heupel was both a national title-winning quarterback and nine-year assistant. He was pushed out as offensive coordinator and replaced by Lincoln Riley in 2015. He probably hasn’t forgotten that.

Both teams are 3-0, but Heupel’s Vols have been far more impressive. They walloped Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State by a combined 191-13, and while they’ve faced only the No. 102 schedule so far, per SP+, OU’s schedule is 107th and the Sooners won their past two games by just 19 points. Lots of good teams have yet to face a major challenge, and only one — Tennessee — ranks first in points scored and allowed per drive.

Blue-chip sophomore Nico Iamaleava is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback, backs Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop are averaging 8.6 yards per carry between them, and the defensive front is allowing just 2.1 yards per (non-sack) carry. The only potential weakness is a pass defense that ranks just 69th in passing success rate allowed; that’s a pretty poor number considering better passing teams loom on the schedule.

OU might not be one of those teams. Despite the mediocre schedule, the Sooners are currently 125th in yards per dropback. Quarterback Jackson Arnold has also already taken nine sacks, and Oklahoma might have its first bad offensive line in about a quarter-century. Arnold is OU’s only effective rusher, and he’s top-20 in scramble yardage, but he’s getting hit constantly, and he’s averaging a dreadful 9.0 yards per completion — he’s not even getting hit in the name of making big plays.

New offensive coordinator Seth Littrell hasn’t been able to figure out what, if anything, OU can actually do well. Now All-American edge rusher James Pearce Jr. & Co. come to town. Pearce has been remarkably quiet this season, but then again, he hasn’t had a reason to be loud yet.

Oklahoma is an underdog because of offense, but the fastest, most aggressive OU defense we’ve seen in quite a while might give it a shot. The Sooners lead the nation in takeaways and rank in the top 15 in both yards allowed per (non-sack) carry and sack rate, but they’re also not allowing big plays — only 2.6% of opponents’ plays have gained 20-plus yards (eighth). R Mason Thomas ranks eighth nationally in havoc plays (TFLs, passes defended or forced fumbles), and after making just 4.5 TFLs in his first two seasons, junior tackle Gracen Halton already has 4.5 in three games. There are wafts of Tommie Harris- or Frank Alexander-level disruption coming from the OU defensive front. That could allow the Sooners to render the Vols one-dimensional, and while that one dimension (Iamaleava and the passing game) is awesome — and while I’m not yet sold on the Sooners’ pass defense — having to convert third-and-longs with a young quarterback in a ridiculously hyped environment has tripped up plenty of favorites through the years.

Games like this are what OU asked for when joining the SEC. The defense seems ready. Memorial Stadium will absolutely be ready. The offense … we’ll see.

Current line: Vols -7 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.1 | FPI projection: Vols by 8.4

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Ranked vs. Ranked in the Big Ten

The Big Ten gives us two different types of big games this weekend. On Friday night, unbeaten Nebraska and Illinois meet in Lincoln with both looking for their first 4-0 starts since 2016 and 2011, respectively. And on Saturday, we get our first official Helmet Game of the new Big Ten era with USC visiting Michigan. Plenty of stakes in that one.

USC has finished ahead of Michigan in the final AP poll only once in the past six seasons, but a couple of big 2024 games — USC’s win over LSU, Michigan’s blowout loss to Texas — have put the Trojans ahead. Early returns on both the Miller Moss and the D’Anton Lynn eras at USC have been positive.

Moss, the Trojans’ new starting quarterback, is completing 73% of his passes (11th nationally) with a 61% success rate (fourth). He might not be the raw playmaker that Heisman-winner Caleb Williams was, but he’s going to do just fine in Lincoln Riley’s QB-friendly system. Lynn, meanwhile, took on a much tougher job: Riley’s defensive coordinator. And despite half of USC’s games coming against LSU, the Trojans are currently a solid 25th in points allowed per drive, combining efficient run defense with a bend-don’t-break pass defense.

The former will matter far more than the latter on Saturday. It appears Michigan is about to double down on the only thing that has worked.

It wasn’t hard to see the vision of Sherrone Moore picking Davis Warren over Alex Orji as QB No. 1 to start the 2024 season. Orji isn’t a trustworthy passer — in parts of three seasons he has attempted just eight passes (sacked once) that have netted 18 yards. He can run, and we assumed him to be the heir apparent for much of the offseason, but Warren threw better in camp, and Moore decided to roll the dice.

One-quarter of the way through the season, however, Warren has completed just two passes of more than 25 yards and thrown six interceptions. He’s 103rd in Total QBR, and in a gimme game against Arkansas State last week he was picked off three times with two sacks in 16 pass attempts. He lost the plot, and if the passer can’t pass, just go with the runner. Orji will start on Saturday as Michigan doubles down on manball.

USC hasn’t exactly been manball-resistant under Riley. The Trojans went 0-3 against Utah out West, and in 12 games in which opponents operated out of a two-tight end formation at least 30% of the time, USC has gone just 6-6. Part of that comes from the fact that teams are more likely to go with heavy formations when they’re already ahead, but those 12 games include games against physical Utah, Notre Dame and Stanford teams that weren’t afraid to attack a seven- or eight-man box with the run.

Even with Warren at QB, Michigan is operating with two tight ends 36% of the time. I would be shocked if that percentage wasn’t higher against the Trojans.

Between the run game and a strong secondary featuring cornerback Will Johnson, Michigan will perfectly test out what we still need to know about USC. But one assumes Orji will have to pass at least slightly well for the Wolverines to prevail.

Current line: USC -5.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 3.9 | FPI projection: USC by 2.9

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Matt Rhule is a second-year leap master, and in his second year at Nebraska, his Cornhuskers have already achieved their highest AP poll ranking since 2016. Blue-chip freshman Dylan Raiola has completed 74% of his passes and created a great connection with receiver transfer Isaiah Neyor, and at the moment he’s fourth in the conference in Total QBR, ahead of Dillon Gabriel and Miller Moss, among others.

Illinois easily has the best defense Raiola has faced. The Fighting Illini are 15th in QBR allowed, and while the pass rush hasn’t done much, this looks like another dynamite Illinois secondary thanks to corners Torrie Cox Jr. and Terrance Brooks.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer has the Illinois passing game operating a bit better than usual, and receiver Pat Bryant has taken his game to a different level, catching 15 of 17 passes for 235 yards and four scores. But coach Bret Bielema still wants to run the ball, and the Illini don’t do that very well, ranking 87th in rushing success rate. You probably don’t want to be in a lot of must-pass situations against a good Nebraska secondary.

This game could come down to mistakes. Raiola has thrown only one interception in 80 passes, and Altmyer has none, but they’re facing ball-hawking secondaries in what should be a tense environment.

Current line: Huskers -7.5 (down from -8.5 earlier this week) | SP+ projection: Huskers by 9.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.7

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The Big 12 roller coaster begins

Big 12 play begins in earnest this week with two games that could immediately shake up the title odds. The No. 2 and No. 3 favorites, per SP+ (Utah and Oklahoma State) face off in Stillwater, while the No. 1 favorite (Kansas State) takes on an unbeaten upstart on the road.

Behold, Saturday’s most-seasoned game. Utah-OSU will pit two 20th-year coaches (Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy) and two seventh-year quarterbacks (Cam Rising vs. Alan Bowman) against each other.

OSU has gotten very little out of star Ollie Gordon II this year — he’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry (0.9 before contact), and OSU ranks 115th in rushing success rate — but the Cowboys are still overachieving against projections because of an improved passing attack. Bowman is 23rd in Total QBR and has yet to take a sack; he throws quick, safe passes to slot man Brennan Presley and mixes in downfield shots to De’Zhaun Stribling, Rashod Owens and emerging sophomore Talyn Shettron.

The Cowboys’ defense has been decent at forcing third-and-longs but has allowed 23% of opponent completions to gain 20-plus yards (121st nationally). Against a normal Utah offense, that wouldn’t be problematic — Utah doesn’t typically make many big plays. But before missing the last game with a hand injury, Rising (who will play Saturday) was averaging 19.2 yards per completion with a number of deep shots to Dijon Stanley and Money Parks.

The Utah pass defense has been far better than OSU’s: The Utes are 10th in passing success rate allowed and 13th in sack rate. But like OSU, the successful plays they allow are pretty big.

This could be another OSU game decided by explosive plays. The Cowboys thrive in chaos — they’re 21-10 in one-score finishes since the start of 2019 — but Utah has the more proven and slightly less glitchy defense.

Current line: OSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.3 | FPI projection: OSU by 3.9

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If you zoom in, you can see Kansas State’s Powercat logo midway between Utah’s and OSU’s on the chart above. The Wildcats have their own brand of all-or-nothing D. They’re second in pressure rate and 16th in stuff rate, with Brendan Mott and linebacker Austin Romaine having combined for eight TFLs and 4.5 sacks and linebacker Desmond Purnell contributing five run stops.

The Wildcats have also allowed 20-plus yards on 7.7% of snaps, 101st nationally. It’s as if they want your drive to end quickly one way or another so they can go back to mauling you with their awesome run game.

Backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards are averaging 5.7 yards per carry between them, quarterback Avery Johnson is averaging 8.1 (not including sacks), and K-State ranks third nationally in yards per carry. Johnson has a ways to go as a passer, but if you can’t knock the Wildcats off-schedule, nothing else matters. BYU’s defense has dominated against the pass to date, but the Cougars are 59th in yards allowed per carry. They should have a loud home crowd and an obvious edge in passing situations, but they have to create those situations first.

I’m not sure BYU can keep up in a track meet, but quarterback Jake Retzlaff and receiver Chase Roberts are awfully good. Retzlaff leads the team in rushing — both because he’s good at it and because BYU’s top two RBs missed last week’s win over Wyoming (their status is uncertain this week) — and Roberts is the only Cougar with more than six catches. He’s got 15 for 263.

Current line: K-State -6.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 9.7 | FPI projection: K-State by 7.9

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ACC favorites at home

There’s a morbid fascination to this week’s game between unbeaten Cal and winless Florida State — that combo is totally what we expected, right? — but we’ll relegate that game to the Week 4 Playlist below and focus instead on what we’ll learn when two likely contenders face interesting home tests.

We saw a terribly flawed Clemson team collapse against Georgia in Week 1, then we saw maybe the best performance in years in a 66-20 demolition of Appalachian State in Week 2. I guess the third game will break the tie?

Quarterback Cade Klubnik’s 99.6 single-game Total QBR against App State was the best of the season. He actually threw downfield — a rarity over the past couple of years — and it looked great on him. On passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield, he was 5-for-5 for 194 yards and two touchdowns; true freshman Bryant Wesco Jr., a top-30 prospect, caught two of those balls for 127 yards in a star turn. Throw in Phil Mafah’s strong running and the fact that this might be the worst NC State defense in at least five years, and there’s reason for optimism here.

For NC State, true freshman CJ Bailey will evidently start at QB for the injured and ineffective Grayson McCall. After a shaky first couple of drives last week against Louisiana Tech, he went 12-for-17 for 144 yards, rushed for 25 more yards and helped to turn a 17-6 deficit into a semi-comfortable 30-20 win. This isn’t the Clemson defense of old — the Tigers are currently 31st in defensive SP+ — but having your first career start come in Death Valley East seems suboptimal.

Current line: Clemson -20.5 (up from -16!) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 11.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 18.9

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We might learn something real about Louisville this week. The Cardinals were an absolute wrecking ball against Austin Peay and Jacksonville State, but the former is 71st in FCS SP+ and the latter is 122nd in FBS. Louisville is Tennessee-esque, ranking in the top five in both points scored and allowed per drive. Quarterback Tyler Shough is dealing, a quartet of running backs is averaging over 250 yards per game and 9.5 yards per carry, and the pass defense has been nearly perfect.

The Cardinals are only 53rd in yards allowed per carry, however, with some gashes here and there. And if we’ve learned anything about quarterback Haynes King, running back Jamal Haynes and the Tech attack, it’s that they’ll run until you stop them.

The shine wore off a bit after the Yellow Jackets’ Week 2 loss to Syracuse, but they’re still 3-1 and 13th in points scored per drive. A woeful pass defense — something that didn’t cost them against Florida State (because FSU can’t pass) but certainly did against Syracuse — could prevent them from keeping up with the Cardinals for 60 minutes. But they could at least render Louisville one-dimensional for a while while riding their own one dimension a long way.

Current line: Louisville -10 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 12.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 12.0

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Week 4 chaos superfecta

Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to Washington State’s Apple Cup win over Washington, we’re now 3-for-3.

This week’s superfecta is ACC-themed. SP+ says that between Clemson (76% win probability vs. NC State), North Carolina (76% vs. JMU), Louisville (79% vs. Georgia Tech) and Miami (90% at USF), there’s only a 41% chance that all four favorites win. I guess that means the odds of ACC oddity are 59%, huh?

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Week 4 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday

Stanford Cardinal at Syracuse Orange (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Stanford’s first cross-country ACC road trip is to upstate New York on a Friday night. That’s quite the initiation. It’s also an interesting opportunity for both teams. Stanford is playing relatively mistake-free (and not-so-high-upside) ball, and Syracuse has been brilliant on offense and mostly nonexistent on D. The Orange are obvious favorites, but not dramatically so.

Current line: Syracuse -8.5 | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 7.0 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 7.7

Early Saturday

Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers (noon, ESPN2). My postgame win expectancy measure — which takes the predictive stats from a given game and says “With these stats, you would have won this game X% of the time” — put Kansas at 58% against Illinois and 87% against UNLV. Their odds of going 2-0 were about 10 times better than going 0-2, and yet … 0-2 it was. Now comes a chance to wipe the slate clean and aim to get into the Big 12 title race. WVU, meanwhile, is also 1-2 and interested in that “clean slate” thing.

Current line: WVU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 2.9 | FPI projection: WVU by 0.3

Florida Gators at Mississippi State Bulldogs (noon, ESPN). Two more teams shopping at the Clean Slate store. Florida’s defense is inexcusably bad, and Mississippi State just suffered a 24-point loss to Toledo, a margin that was extremely kind to the Bulldogs. But hey, one of these teams gets to win a conference game!

Current line: Gators -6 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Gators by 5.5 | FPI projection: Gators by 1.0

Marshall Thundering Herd at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (noon, Fox). Marshall’s not going to beat Ohio State, even in an “NIU beats Notre Dame” universe. But the Thundering Herd have by far the best pass defense Will Howard and the Ohio State offense have seen in 2024. That, and the promise of unlimited Tudor’s Biscuits, could test the Buckeyes for a little while, at least.

Current line: Buckeyes -40 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 40.1 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 31.6

James Madison Dukes at North Carolina Tar Heels (noon, ACCN). With Conner Harrell at QB for the injured Max Johnson, North Carolina has turned into a “run constantly, convert third-and-manageables, win by making fewer mistakes” team. We’ll see how that works against a JMU defense that should force Harrell out of his comfort zone.

Current line: UNC -10.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 11.4 | FPI projection: UNC by 7.6

Tulane Green Wave at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (noon, ESPNU). SP+ has liked Louisiana all season, and this is the game where it’s either proven right or changes course. I have more faith in Tulane, but the Cajuns could frustrate the Green Wave’s dramatically all-or-nothing offense.

Current line: Tulane -3 | SP+ projection: Louisiana by 5.2 | FPI projection: Tulane by 4.9

Saturday afternoon

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Virginia Tech Hokies (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Rutgers is looking for its second straight win over Virginia Tech and 3-0 start; star RB Kyle Monangai is dominating, and quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has been flawless, albeit against Howard and Akron. Tech has rebounded well from its Week 1 dud against Vanderbilt and could use a positive result here to prompt an ACC run. The Hokies are banged up on offense, but the key to the game? Actually playing the first half. Their scoring margin is minus-7 before halftime and plus-44 after it.

Current line: Hokies -3.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 3.7 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.2

UCLA Bruins at No. 16 LSU Tigers (3:40 p.m., ABC). It’s hard to fall 36 spots in SP+ in just two games, but with a narrow win over Hawaii and a blowout loss to Indiana, UCLA has managed to do just that. The Bruins are now 73rd, and SP+ doesn’t even know about their injury problems. LSU has some issues (namely, a dreadful pass defense and no big-play prevention), but UCLA has far more. Either DeShaun Foster’s Bruins right the ship immediately, or things get ugly.

Current line: LSU -24 (up from -22.5) | SP+ projection: LSU by 18.3 | FPI projection: LSU by 18.7

Buffalo Bulls at No. 23 Northern Illinois Huskies (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). After a week off to bask in the post-Notre Dame glow, NIU gets back to work against a Buffalo team that’s pretty good at avoiding negative plays on offense and preventing big plays on D. We’ll see if Pete Lembo’s Bulls can avoid getting pushed around by backs Antario Brown and Gavin Williams and a physical NIU attack.

Current line: NIU -14 | SP+ projection: NIU by 9.9 | FPI projection: NIU by 12.1

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders (3:30 p.m., FS1). Texas Tech played its first complete game of the season last week in a blowout of North Texas, and ASU is 3-0 for the first time in five years and forcing waves of turnovers. Tahj Brooks vs. Cam Skattebo is one of the more enjoyable RB matchups of the week.

Current line: Tech -3 | SP+ projection: Tech by 3.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 0.9

TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs (5 p.m., The CW). Some nice, local hate for Week 4. TCU and SMU have split the last four Battles for the Iron Skillet, and the winner has scored at least 40 points in five of the past six. SMU’s offense lost the plot in an 18-15 loss to BYU, but early indications are that TCU hasn’t yet curbed its defensive generosity under new coordinator Andy Avalos. There’s still hopefully some track meet potential here, is what I’m saying.

Current line: TCU -3 | SP+ projection: SMU by 0.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 1.3

Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers (3:30 p.m. ESPN). Arkansas’ offense is 13th in success rate and 16th in percentage of plays gaining 20-plus yards; the Razorbacks also rank 85th in penalty yards per game (61.3), 74th in turnovers (four) and 63rd in blown block rate. Auburn is 24th in success rate, fourth in percentage of 20-plus plays … and 132nd in turnovers (nine). These teams have each been partially brilliant and partially slapstick. But the winner of this will be 3-1 and feeling pretty good.

Current line: Auburn -3 | SP+ projection: Auburn by 7.1 | FPI projection: Auburn by 3.3

Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 7 Missouri Tigers (4:15 p.m., SECN). Mizzou survived a test from Thomas Castellanos and Boston College last week; now the Tigers take on another team led by an unpredictable jitterbug of a quarterback, Vandy’s Diego Pavia. The Commodores’ pass defense has not been good. That will likely backfire in a pretty big way against Luther Burden III and Co.

Current line: Mizzou -20 (down from -21) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.8 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 18.7

Miami (OH) RedHawks at No. 17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3:30 p.m., NBC). I considered Miami a dark-horse threat for the Group of 5’s CFP bid, but a great defense has regressed, and somehow an already-limited offense has too. Notre Dame is dealing with another round of offensive line injuries, but this doesn’t appear to be the potentially scary trap game I thought it might be three weeks ago.

Current line: Irish -28 (up from -26.5) | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 31.1

Saturday evening

California Golden Bears at Florida State Seminoles (7 p.m., ESPN2). Two weeks after a delightful win at Auburn, Cal makes its second of four cross-country road trips in a game that looks, um, slightly different than we expected a month ago. The Golden Bears are 3-0 and looking to position themselves as ACC contenders. The Seminoles are 0-3 and simply looking to stop the bleeding.

Current line: FSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 4.2 | FPI projection: FSU by 3.5

No. 8 Miami Hurricanes at South Florida Bulls (7 p.m., ESPN). Miami is coming off of a 62-0 win over Ball State and ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive success rates. But now comes a unique test. USF can’t throw the ball even a little bit but boasts an active defensive front and a ridiculously explosive run game. The Bulls had Bama wobbly for three quarters, too.

Current line: Miami -16.5 (down from -17.5) | SP+ projection: Miami by 20.8 | FPI projection: Miami by 16.2

Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers (7:30 p.m., NBC). Over the last decade, the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale has produced scores like 12-10, 13-10, 17-10 and 14-7; both the Hawkeyes’ and Gophers’ offenses look a little more sprightly than usual, and Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson leads the nation in rushing yards. But the defenders — Iowa DEs Ethan Hurkett and Max Llewellyn, Minnesota DBs Ethan Robinson and Jack Henderson — probably still run the show here.

Current line: Iowa -2.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 0.6 | FPI projection: Iowa by 0.0

Bowling Green Falcons at No. 25 Texas A&M Aggies (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). Last we saw Bowling Green, the Falcons were nearly upsetting Penn State. Now they get a shot at an A&M team that might have stumbled into a QB controversy. With Conner Weigman day-to-day with injury, redshirt freshman Marcel Reed led the Aggies to 488 yards in a road win over Florida. Weigman’s more efficient, but A&M actually made some big plays with Reed.

Current line: A&M -23 | SP+ projection: A&M by 24.4 | FPI projection: A&M by 21.0

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at No. 1 Texas Longhorns (8 p.m., ESPN+). Oh no, the poor Longhorns. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has an oblique injury, so Steve Sarkisian will go with backup Arch Manning — who was probably the best player in the country last Saturday. I’m just happy I got to squeeze ULM into my Ranking the Unbeatens list at least once.

Current line: Horns -44.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 46.3 | FPI projection: Horns by 43.7

Late Saturday

Portland State Vikings at Boise State Broncos (9:45 p.m., FS1). Yes, I’m picking this one because it’s about the only one on besides Kansas State-BYU and, for the late-night folks, Northern Iowa-Hawaii. And it will take place only if PSU gets its whooping cough outbreak under control. (There’s always something new in college football, though I guess this is also something that might have happened in the 1920s.) But anytime is a good time to watch BSU’s Ashton Jeanty.

SP+ projection: BSU by 40.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 38.6

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

D3: No. 2 Cortland at No. 11 Susquehanna (12 p.m., FloFootball). Cortland, the defending national champ, has begun the year with two wins by a combined 146-7. Quarterback Zac Boyes is 28-for-31 passing for 471 yards and six touchdowns, and now comes a revenge attempt: Susquehanna is the only team that beat the Red Dragons last season. The River Hawks are good again, but Cortland appears to be on a different level.

SP+ projection: Cortland by 15.7

FCS: Yale at Holy Cross (2 p.m., ESPN+). Finally, the Ivy League joins the party. Yale, the preseason media favorite to win a third straight conference title, lost a lot of key contributors and starts the season against a Holy Cross team that might have begun to get its footing after a slow start. Yale’s defensive front, led by end Dylan Yang and tackle Alvin Gulley Jr., should hold up just fine. We’ll see about the offense.

SP+ projection: Holy Cross by 1.5

FCS: No. 4 Idaho at No. 23 Abilene Christian (8 p.m., ESPN+). SATURDAY NIGHT POPCORN FLICK. Abilene Christian is averaging 38 points per game and allowing 33. Idaho, meanwhile, scored 41 against its first FCS opponent of the season last week. The Vandals are looking like contenders, but ACU games are West Texas track meets waiting to happen.

SP+ projection: Idaho by 8.1