For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris is seen as more likely to win the U.S. presidential election than former President Donald Trump, according to a CNBC Fed Survey released on Tuesday.

The 27 respondents to the survey are investment strategists, economists and fund managers. Of the group, 48% see a Harris victory as the most likely scenario, while 41% believe Trump will win.

The survey was conducted September 12-14, days after the first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump.

The latest forecast is different from the previous CNBC Fed Survey released in late July, when 50% predicted Trump would win and only 37% believed Harris would be elected president.

The July poll was released nine days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.

Last month, when Biden was still in the race, 48% saw Trump as the likely winner, while 35% predicted Biden would be re-elected. Another 17% were unsure or didn’t know.

Since Harris entered the race unopposed in late July, her presidential campaign has been fleshing out the vice president’s economic platform and policy proposals. With just under 50 days to go until the Nov. 5 election, the high cost of living remains the top issue for voters, according to national polls.

Harris is focusing her economic approach on expanding the middle class and lowering costs for consumers, including by providing housing subsidies, expanding tax breaks and deductions, and cracking down on what she sees as corporate “pricing.”

Meanwhile, Trump has pushed to extend and deepen the tax cuts he enacted in his first term, imposing harsh tariffs on all imports and scrapping some of the Biden administration’s infrastructure investments.

Fifty-six percent of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey believe a Trump presidency would be better for the stock market than a Harris administration.

The predictions change when the question turns to the broader economy, with 44% seeing Trump as a better candidate for the economy as a whole, versus 41% for Harris.

Aside from purely economic issues, 52% of respondents believe Harris would be better for the country as a whole, while only 37% see Trump as better for the United States as a whole.

“Assuming Trump intends to implement his proposals, a broad-based tariff and mass deportation, or even modest deportation of immigrants, would increase inflation and slow the economy enough that a recession would likely follow,” Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics LLC, wrote in response to the survey.

“In addition, the two candidates’ proposals differ greatly in terms of winners and losers, rather than in terms of impact on overall economic growth,” he added.

Respondents also predicted Harris’ economic proposals would be better for budget deficits and trade policy, while giving Trump higher marks for how his policy proposals would affect business regulation, inflation, jobs and taxes.

Regardless of who enters the White House, the president’s policies have only a partial impact on the health of the American economy.

For some, that’s a good thing. “Given the poor economic policies that Trump and Harris are pushing, we really should be hoping for divided government. Without it, both the deficit and inflation will go up,” wrote Robert Fry, chief economist at Robert Fry Economics LLC.

Overall, respondents ranked the presidential election as the sixth most concerning risk to the U.S. economy out of eight possible choices. The highest-ranking economic risk was the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates too late or too little.

On the question about Fed independence, 100% expect Harris to respect the independence of the Federal Reserve. Only 42% believe the same of Trump.

“The independence of the Federal Reserve could be a real issue under Trump, but we must realize that there are only three branches of government as defined in the Constitution: the legislative, judicial, and executive,” wrote Richard Bernstein, CEO of Bernstein Advisors. “There is no fourth branch, the Fed, so the Fed has only ever been as independent as the established three branches want it to be.”

The Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time since March 2020 at its meeting on Wednesday.