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Why Do Stocks Fall After a Rate Cut? Here’s What Experts Think
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Why Do Stocks Fall After a Rate Cut? Here’s What Experts Think

The Federal Reserve gave investors exactly what they wanted said they wanted to cut rates by an outrageous 50 basis points on Wednesday, but it still wasn’t enough. After a brief jump following the initial announcement, stocks went through a period of highly volatile trading before all three major U.S. market indexes closed lower on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25%, while the S&P 500 and the technology-based Nasdaq Composite fell 0.29% and 0.31%, respectively.

Markets sold off even as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at his post-FOMC meeting press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut was intended to demonstrate authorities’ “confidence” that the current strength in the labor market can be sustained with an “appropriate recalibration” of monetary policy.

While no one can pinpoint the definitive reason behind the negative reaction in stocks to what should have been a massive rate cut that should have kick-started the market, Rick Rieder, CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock and head of BlackRock’s Global Allocation Investment Team, offered one theory.

Rieder looked at the Fed’s summary of economic forecasts and noted that Fed officials were eyeing two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, and another 100 basis point cut in 2025. That’s a lot, but it’s not what investors had priced in before the meeting.

“The market has priced in a rate path that more closely resembles what an impending recession would require… rather than the recalibration of rates to a less restrictive or neutral policy stance, which we believe is what this cycle likely represents,” he said. Fortune via email.

While markets got an attractive 50 basis point rate cut in the short term, the long-term outlook for Fed officials’ interest rates was not as attractive as expected.

Thomas Simons, senior economist at investment bank Jefferies, echoed this outlook in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Long-term rates continue to be revised upward, suggesting a higher final rate. Today’s 50 (basis point) cut was a dovey surprise, but we see no signs of more major cuts to come,” he said.

The economy is ‘fine’ and ‘we are not lagging behind’

There is another possible reason for the negative reaction in stocks to Wednesday’s Fed decision. Some see Fed officials’ outsized rate cut as a sign that they have recognized that they should have started cutting rates months ago.

Powell addressed these concerns during his press conference on Wednesday. “We don’t think we’re behind … You can take this as a sign of our commitment not to be behind,” he told reporters.

But more than a few experts just don’t believe it. “This is a Fed that believes it’s behind the curve,” Robert Minter, director of ETF Investment Strategy at abrdn, told me. Fortune via email.

The skepticism is not without reason. Even Powell himself admitted that if Fed officials had seen the weak July jobs report before that month’s FOMC meeting, they probably would have cut rates then. “If we had seen the July (jobs) report before the meeting, would we have cut? We certainly could have,” he said. “We didn’t make that decision. But you know what, we certainly could have.”

Robert Frick, a corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, even said the Fed is concerned that the labor market data is not as reliable as previously thought after revisions to previous employment data showed the U.S. economy employed 818,000 fewer people between March 2023 and March 2024 than originally reported.

“The half-point cut is an acknowledgement that the Fed is lagging, but not a sign of panic,” Frick said. Fortune via email. “The Fed has been ‘data-driven,’ but doubts about that data have proven valid because it has not provided an accurate picture of the labor market.”

“Now that inflation has largely abated, the Fed must quickly improve hiring conditions and stimulate investment to create more jobs,” he added.

Powell again attempted to address concerns about the labor market and economic weakness during his press conference.

“The U.S. economy is in good shape,” he said. “It’s growing at a solid pace. Inflation is down. The labor market is in a strong position. We want to keep it that way. That’s what we’re doing.”

“I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession – sorry, a downturn – is any greater,” he added.

Some experts also welcomed Powell’s decision to opt for a 50 basis point rate cut. “For the first time since the pandemic, this Fed has taken aggressive action to get ahead of the curve by cutting rates to make sure the economy doesn’t go into a recession,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Fortune via email.

It was perhaps this disagreement among various experts that led to the volatile trading seen on Wednesday. Steven Wieting, interim chief investment officer of Citi Wealth, warned that this could happen before the Fed’s announcement, noting that volatility is common as investors digest the Fed’s decisions and their myriad potential implications.

Powell made another comment on Wednesday that could potentially undermine the market.

When it comes to the future outlook for the neutral rate — the level at which monetary policy becomes neither stimulative nor accommodative — Powell said he believes “we’re not going back” to the near-zero rates that became common before the pandemic.

“It seems to me that the neutral rate is probably significantly higher than it was back then,” he said.

With many investors looking for evidence of the potential rise in interest rates, not just in the short term but also over several years, this comment could have exacerbated the stock sell-off.