The northwestern Caribbean is an area to watch closely for the potential formation of a tropical storm next week. It is too early for specific details, but the U.S. Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on how this forecast develops over the next few days.

The area to watch: The National Hurricane Center has marked out an area between Cuba and Central America for the possible formation of a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days. There is currently no system to track this region, as the general lack of storminess in the satellite view below shows.

What could happen this weekend or early next week is that a broad area of ​​low pressure develops in conjunction with what is called the Central American Gyre, leading to increasingly stormy weather. That is when we will be watching this region of the Caribbean closely for tropical development.

When a tropical storm can develop: Early to mid-next week is the earliest chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in the northwestern Caribbean from this broad low. The next storm names are Helene and Isaac.

To achieve this, the broader low pressure area would need to form a more clearly defined low pressure area with persistent showers and thunderstorms.

When and where exactly the system forms, assuming it forms at all, and how much influence there is from a southward dip of the jet stream that will move eastward across the central U.S. next week will play a role in where it goes. The greater the influence of that jet stream, the more likely it is that the U.S. Gulf Coast will be threatened, particularly the eastern half of the Gulf Coast, including Florida, later next week.

Could it become a hurricane? It is certainly possible. The heat content of the ocean is a favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows that there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

But there are other factors that matter, such as whether the wind pattern at higher levels is favorable for intensification. It is also unknown whether there is dry air or land interaction nearby, such as with Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, that could hinder intensification.

For now, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the situation closely while ensuring hurricane preparedness plans are in place. Stay tuned to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates throughout the weekend and beyond as we provide more details on what to expect.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at weather.com for more than 10 years, after beginning his career at The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.