Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes square off on the main card of UFC 306 at Sphere in Las Vegas on Saturday. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

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Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 Preview

UFC Hall of Famer Daniel Cormier may have hit the nail on the head when he recently said that Lopes (25-6 MMA, 4-1 UFC) beating Ortega (16-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) would be “a bit of a changing of the guard” considering where both fighters are in their careers. … Ortega, 33, has struggled to compete since challenging for the featherweight title, going 2-3 over the past six years. He is coming off a Performance of the Night submission win over Yair Rodriguez in February. Ortega was scheduled to fight Lopes at UFC 303 in June, but was forced to withdraw after making a steep weight cut. … Lopes, 29, has made waves since joining the UFC last year, as he was named MMA Junkie’s Newcomer of the Year for 2023. He is on a four-fight winning streak, including a points victory over Dan Ige, who took the fight at UFC 303 on just hours’ notice after Ortega pulled out.

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 expert pick, prediction

These two were initially rebooked for UFC 303, until health issues following the weight loss forced Ortega to withdraw. This in turn created a memorable last-minute booking between Lopes and Dan Ige.

Although Ortega and Lopes have an almost full training camp this time, it is still difficult to be certain about the health status of both participants, given the rapid turnaround and the context of this unmissable, unique event.

That’s why I almost tend to pay more attention to things like age and durability, given the x-factors that quietly play a major role.

Ortega is the more proven commodity on paper in terms of his skills and experience, but Lopes still possesses some stylistic qualities (which I detail further in the extensive analysis I did for this fight back in June) that could come in handy for this fight.

Whether Lopes counters Ortega’s kicks or challenges him with straight punches up the middle, I suspect the Lobo Gym representative can complement the existing damage “T-City” has suffered in his career.

I stick to my initial prediction that Lopes will stop the match with strikes in the second round.

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 Odds

The bookmakers and the public prefer the younger fighter and list Lopes (-188) and Ortega (+146) via FanDuel.

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 start time, how to watch

Ortega and Lopes are expected to take to the octagon at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. local in Las Vegas) in the main card clash. The fight will be streamed on ESPN+ pay-per-view.